Mar 18 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher, but off best levels. Banks, Industrials and Energy led outperforming sectors. Media, Real Estate and Personal/Household Goods lagged. Follows positive close on Monday.
Focus on talks between US President Trump and Russia leader Putin on potential Ukraine ceasefire. Trump said US and Russia already talking about dividing assets. Still a lot skepticism about bounce sustainability given Trump 2.0 policy uncertainty into 2-Apr reciprocal tariff decision. In addition, recent reports have highlighted the myriad complications surrounding reciprocal tariff calculation and implementation. UK and EU to advance talks on seizing Russian assets to boost defense spending.
Germany's parliament approved a significant spending increase, marking a departure from decades of fiscal conservatism, aimed at boosting economic growth and enhancing military capabilities amid rising geopolitical tensions (FT). The Bundestag voted 513 in favor and 207 against the legislation, which will next be considered by the Bundesrat, the upper house on 21-Mar. Proposed plan includes a €500B infrastructure fund and changes to borrowing rules to facilitate increased defense spending. The remainder of the fund remains dedicated to additional infrastructure investments, with €300B designated for the federal government and €100B for the state governments. On Friday, the Bundesrat (upper house) will also vote on the change. In UK, focus on welfare reform announcement, which aims at making up to £6B worth of cuts in spending ahead of next week's fiscal statement.
Limited European macro updates of note today. German ZEW sentiment saw big increase after fiscal announcement. Swiss government cut growth and inflation forecasts ahead of Thursday's SNB decision. Sees 2025 GDP at +1.4% versus prior +1.5% and 2026 at +1.6% versus +1.7%, below historical average (1.8%) for another two years. Inflation forecast to average +0.6% for the year versus prior +0.7%. Based on no escalation in global trade tensions. Said downside risks for economy outweigh upside potential.
In earnings, out of UK, Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Computacenter (CCC.LN), Bytes Technology Group (BYIT.LN), Genel Energy (GENL.LN) and Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN) reported before the open. Out of the DACH region - Fraport (FRA.GR) and Mayr-Melnhof Karton (MMK.AV) updated investors.
In M&A, Paxman (PAX.SS) announced a recommended all share offer for Dignitana (DIGN.SS) valuing Dignitana at SEK1.90/sh. Castellum (CAST.SS) increased its stake in Entra ASA (ENTRA.NO) to ~33.7%. Interparfums (ITP.FP) acquired all intellectual property rights relating to Maison Goutal held by Amorepacific Europe worldwide. DKSH Technology (DKSH.SW) acquired technology distribution companies in Taiwan Taqkey Science and Quantum Biotech. Media reports Knds, CSG and BAE Systems (BA.LN) interested in Iveco Defence Vehicles (IVG.IM); Leonardo's (LDO.IM) involvement also an option. Eni (ENI.IM) reported to have received up to four proposals for a 49% stake in Enibioch4in. BT Group's (BT.A.LN) largest shareholder Sunil Bharti Mittal is said to be considering an increase of stake above current 24.5%.
In other corporate news, of note, Volkswagen's Audi to cut 7,500 jobs; plans to invest ~€8B in German locations through 2029. SPIE (SPIE.FP) holder Peugeot Invest (PEUG.FP) places ~4.3M shares at €38.8/sh through BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Banks +2.19%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.03%, Oil & Gas +0.97%, Insurance +0.86%, Autos & Parts +0.82%, Retail +0.68%, Technology +0.62%
Underperformers:
Media (0.84%), Real Estate (0.72%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.64%), Food & Beverage +0.03%, Travel & Leisure +0.11%, Health Care +0.17%, Utilities +0.25%, Telecom +0.37%, Construct & Mtls +0.50%, Financial Svcs +0.50%, Basic Resources +0.55%, Chemicals +0.57%
Macro:
EU:
Finland
Rehn opening remarks/presentation at event organised by MNI - Bank of Finland
Germany:
German lawmakers pass reform of borrowing rules, EUR500B infrastructure fund, vote in Bundestag 513 members voted in favor of the bill, 207 against, and no abstentions - press release
Spain:
Bank of Spain's Escrivá spoke at V Observatorio Finanzas - slides
Switzerland:
Swiss government cuts growth and inflation outlook ahead of SNB meeting - SECO
SNB Held Off on FX Interventions After Trump Won Election - Bloomberg
UK:
UK welfare system shake-up aimed at saving £5B a year by 2030 - BBC , press release
Government will announce welfare reforms to save up to £6B a year in spending ahead of next week's fiscal statement - BBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+26.9% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK13.90, +2.94) -- Frasers Group raises holding in XXL to ~32.9% of all shares in the Company following rights issue; Frasers intends to make a mandatory offer
+17.9% CHAR.LN (Chariot £0.02, -0.00) -- JV Etana signs 20years PPA; Etana Energy Limited has secured a $55M (ZAR1B) guarantee finance facility alongside equity investment of up to $20M (ZAR372M) from Standard Bank and Norfund
+17.6% NANO.FP (Nanobiotix €3.47, +0.52) -- amends global licensing agreement for JNJ-1900
+14.9% PRS.SM (Promotora de Informaciones €0.46, +0.06) -- Prisa chair Joseph Oughourlian seeking to maintain control of the company even without Vivendi's support - El Mundo
+12.7% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €10.32, +1.16) -- ThyssenKrupp, BAE Systems Plc, European smaller drone makers to benefit from Germany's defense-spending - Bloomberg
+12.7% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €10.32, +1.16) -- new CFO
+11.0% CCC.LN (Computacenter £25.90, +2.56) -- FY earnings
+8.1% VIVE.SS (Vivesto SEK0.23, +0.02) -- licenses Apealea to China's Zhida Pharmaceutical
+7.1% F3C.GR (SFC Energy €25.70, +1.70) -- order
+6.2% INTEG.B.SS (Integrum SEK16.35, +0.95) -- published independent study
+6.1% SBRE.LN (Sabre Insurance Group £1.32, +0.08) -- FY earnings
+5.7% STEM.LN (Sthree £2.77, +0.15) -- Q1 trading update
+4.8% MIDW.LN (Midwich Group £2.38, +0.11) -- FY earnings
+4.5% D6H.GR (Datagroup €47.90, +2.05) -- FY earnings; new Chairman
+4.4% BOKU.LN (BOKU £1.65, +0.07) -- FY earnings
+3.8% VETN.SW (Vetropack Holding CHF30.40, +1.10) -- FY earnings
+3.3% MED.SW (Medartis Holding CHF72.80, +2.30) -- FY earnings
+3.0% AET.LN (Afentra £0.41, +0.01) -- in discussions to acquire the interests in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A held by Etu Energias
+2.6% HAT.LN (H&T Group £3.88, +0.10) -- FY earnings
+2.6% RWE.GR (RWE €33.25, +0.83) -- power purchase agreement with Meta
+2.2% PARKEN.DC (PARKEN Sport & Entertainment DKK138.50, +3.00) -- confirms approach regarding possibility of a dialogue with PSE's major shareholders regarding a possible bid for the company; inquiry was rejected immediately upon receipt
+2.0% DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding $41.29, +0.81) -- DZ Bank downgrade
+2.0% BFSA.GR (Befesa €26.82, +0.52) -- Triton builds stake of under 5% in Befesa - Bloomberg
+1.8% OMV.AV (OMV €45.22, +0.78) -- signs framework agreement with ADNOC on combination of Borealis, Borouge and NOVA; Brenberg upgrade
+1.7% GALD.SW (Galderma Group CHF93.42, +1.52) -- price taregt increased at Citi
Notable Decliners
-34.1% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK10.54, -5.46) -- comments on publication of Investigator Initiated Study results (SESAR); not involved in the conduct of the study, except for supply of its medical device Sedaconda ACD
-27.8% BIG.LN (Big Technologies £0.76, -0.29) -- suspension of CEO Sara Murray due conduct concerns
-21.5% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £2.71, -0.74) -- H1 earnings
-15.2% BRE.IM (Brembo €8.65, -1.55) -- FY earnings
-10.1% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €1.43, -0.16) -- announces convertible financing and committed share subscription facility; extends Company's cash runway to the end of 2025; FY earnings
-8.8% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK0.04, -0.00) -- CMD update; additional allocation of units within the framework of recently completed issues
-8.3% TEKNA.NO (Tekna Holding NOK5.32, -0.48) -- new CEO
-7.4% RUI.FP (Rubis €25.28, -2.02) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.4% BOL.FP (Bolloré €5.50, -0.32) -- FY earnings
-4.4% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.00, -0.05) -- Umecrine Cognition provides update on the Phase 1B/2a clinical study of golexanolone
-4.1% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK1,606.00, -68.00) -- Nordea downgrade
-4.1% EMSN.SW (EMS-Chemie Holding CHF625.00, -27.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-3.5% RM.LN (RM Plc £0.97, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-3.5% FNTL.LN (Fintel £2.48, -0.09) -- FY earnings
-2.2% GENL.LN (Genel Energy £0.62, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-1.7% BSGR.NA (B&S Group €4.13, -0.07) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Sif Holding (SIFG.NA), Avantium (AVTX.NA), Biotalys (BTLS.BB)
DACHs: Talanx (TLX.GR), Vonovia (VNA.GR), Logwin (TGHN.GR), PVA TePla (TPE.GR), Stadler Rail (SRAIL.SW)
France: Haulotte Group (PIG.FP), ATEME (ATEME.FP), Prodways Group (PWG.FP), Burelle (BUR.FP), Infotel (INF.FP), Gensight Biologics (SIGHT.FP)
Nordics: SkiStar (SKIS.B.SS)
Southern Europe: Snam (SRG.IM), Industrie De Nora (DNR.IM), Rai Way (RWAY.IM), Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA)
UK: Prudential (PRU.LN), M&G (MNG.LN), Softcat (SCT.LN), Judges Scientific (JDG.LN), Essentra (ESNT.LN), AFC Energy (AFC.LN), Nexteq (NXQ.LN)
CMD/events: Stadler Rail (SRAIL.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Jan Trade Balance
Italy (€0.26B) vs consensus €5.2B and prior revised 5.82B from €5.98B
Spain (€6.19B) vs consensus (€4.3B) and prior (€4.12B)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): ($0.46) or (0.68%) to $67.12
€-$ +0.0013 or +0.12% to 1.0936
£-$ +0.0006 or +0.04% to 1.2997
€-£ +0.0007 to 0.8416
S&P 500 (1.02%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.51%
DAX: +17.44%
CAC: +9.94%
MIB: +15.64%
Stoxx 600: +9.20%
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