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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.02% to 8706.66, DAX (0.40%) to 23288.06, CAC40 +0.70% to 8171.47, STOXX 600 +0.19% to 555.37

Mar 19 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets mixed Wednesday. Netherlands +1.0%, Norway +0.8%, France +0.7% among the leading regional gainers, while laggards included Portugal (0.3%) and Germany (0.4%),

    • US equities higher with S&P up ~0.8%. Comes after US equities pulled back on Tuesday following a two-day bounce that marked first back-to-back gains in the S&P since its record close on 19-Feb.

    • No major catalysts in US markets overnight with discussions concentrated on general caution amid economic uncertainty. Mag 7 strength garnering some attention following recent underperformance but main focus on upcoming FOMC meeting; while no policy change is expected, markets continue to debate prospects for rate cuts down the line given elevated inflation and a series of soft economic data. BoJ left rates unchanged as widely expected and Governor Ueda reiterated core guidance.

    • Policy decisions from BoE, SNB and Riksbank tomorrow. SNB expected to cut its main policy rate by 25 bps to 0.25%. The BoE meanwhile is widely expected to leave its key Bank Rate unchanged at 4.5% y after cutting rates by 25 bps last month. The Riksbank is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% meeting, signalling a pause in its easing cycle after 175bps of cuts.

    • Some attention in Europe on Ukraine developments. Russia President Putin declined terms for a 30-day full ceasefire, only agreeing to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities. However, both Russia and Ukraine launched air attacks on each other's infrastructure within hours. Putin told Trump a full ceasefire would only work if Ukraine's allies stopped giving military assistance. Zelenskiy reportedly agreed to halt strikes on Russian energy assets. Defense stocks underperformed.

    • Elsewhere, focus also on German fiscal policy after lawmakers backed shift to expansionary fiscal policy. Some warnings on importance of spending money wisely to avoid build-up of debt without growth win/productivity gains. Reports suggest EU will tighten steel import quotas by 15% from Apr to prevent cheap steel from flooding the market after new US tariffs imposed. New EU Commission proposal seeks to boost military spending, pool resources for joint defence projects. UK vowed to continue Ukraine military support under all scenarios.

    • Another limited macro calendar in Europe. Eurozone final CPI revised down from flash reading to 2.3% y/y. UK surveys show softer wage growth, weaker business investment and increase in insolvencies. Sentiment in Europe still underpinned by positive flow data and shift in fiscal outlook. Yesterday's BofA FMS showed record rotation out of the US and into European equities. Net 39% of respondents overweight European stocks last month, the highest level since mid-2021. UK stocks also the third most overweight sector after being rated as the least attractive market to invest in prior month

    • Elsewhere, Turkish asset selloff the big EM political development. Turkey's lira plunged to a record low vs the US dollar, marking its steepest drop since June 2023. Overnight offshore rates surging to 48% as traders unwound lira carry positions. Selloff followed the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key opposition leader and potential presidential candidate against incumbent President Erdogan, on charges of corruption and aiding terrorism-allegations his party calls a political coup (FT, CNBC). Turkey's main stock index, the Borsa Istanbul, fell up to 7%, while Turkish sovereign bond prices tumbled amid huge spike in volatility. Turkish lenders also sold around $8B until midday today to support the lira.

    • On the corporate front, earnings/updates in focus from DACH region including Vonovia (VNA.GR), Suedzucker (SZU.GR), Stadler Rail (SRAIL.SW). In the UK, M&G Plc (MNG.LN) among better FTSE 100 performers after reporting solid Fy results, and new operating profit guidance implies consensus upgrades. In other news, Santander (SAN.SM) plans to close 95 branches in the UK; Unilever (ULVR.LN) ousted Ben & Jerry's CEO over political activism. Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) backs dual-listed structure, asks shareholders to reject Pallister's bid. In Syndicates, Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) sold ~ 2.2% stake, 11M shares in Traton (8TRA.GR). After the deal, Volkswagen's direct interest in Traton amounts to 87.5%. Also, Pfizer (PFE.GR) sold ~618M shares in Haleon (HLN.LN) at 385p/each.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Energy+1.64%, Retail +1.50%, Media +1.08%, Technology +0.88%, Construct & Mtls +0.65%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.41%, Travel & Leisure +0.34%, Utilities +0.23%, Financial Svcs +0.19%

      • Underperformers:

        • Telecom (0.73%), Chemicals (0.59%), Autos & Parts (0.47%), Real Estate (0.42%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.28%), Basic Resources (0.25%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.23%), Health Care (0.23%), Insurance (0.12%), Banks +0.02%

    • Macro:

      • Geopolitics/Rearmament/Trade

        • In Ukraine call, Putin furthers his goals and cedes little to Trump, say analysts -- Reuters

        • Zelenskiy Backs Trump Proposal to Halt Strikes on Energy Assets -- Bloomberg

        • EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund -- FT

        • Meloni says trying to make ReArm plan more sustainable -- ANSA

        • EU proposes cutting steel imports by 15% as Trump tariffs bite -- Reuters

      • UK

        • Chancellor sets new strategy for National Wealth Fund - press release -- GOV.UK

        • UK races to avoid worst of Trump tariffs with talks on tech tax -- FT

        • Pay rises fall back in line with inflation, Brightmine says -- Reuters

        • UK firms delay investment due to uncertainty -- CityAM

        • Business insolvencies rise in February --latest figures from Insolvency Service

        • City lifts inflation forecasts again, as hopes of Bank of England rate cut dwindle - This is Money

      • Germany

        • China's growing grip on more than Germany's car industry -- DW

        • Final vote on Merz's billion-dollar package: The decision will be made in the German Bundesrat on Friday -- NZZ

      • Sweden

        • Sweden finance minister says inflation seen slightly higher than target in 2025 -- SvD

      • France

        • France preparing 'survival manual' for every household, report says -- Guardian

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +17.6% KTA.GR (Knaus Tabbert €15.66, +2.38) -- prelim earnings

        • +15.3% FDM.LN (FDM Group (Holdings) £2.56, +0.34) -- reports FY EPS 23.0p ex-items vs FactSet 21.5p [6 est, 21.0-22.3p], cuts FY dividend (38%) y/y

        • +10.5% TENG.LN (Ten Lifestyle Group £0.61, +0.06) -- trading update

        • +6.8% ECNL.IM (Aquafil €1.23, +0.08) -- earnings; Kepler Cheurvreux upgrade

        • +6.6% OXUR.BB (Oxurion €0.17, +0.01) -- announces LOI for acquisition of majority stake in CRO specializing in clinical data management and biometric analysis

        • +6.5% SCT.LN (Softcat £17.41, +1.06) -- reports H1 EPS 28.7p vs FactSet 27.2p [2 est, 26.7-27.6p]; operating profit growth now expected to be low double-digit, up from high single-digit

        • +6.4% MAAT.FP (Maat Pharma €6.30, +0.38) -- trial update

        • +6.1% PIG.FP (Haulotte Group €2.95, +0.17) -- reports FY net income €15M vs FactSet €14.0M [3 est, €11.6-17.6M]

        • +4.4% MSON.B.SS (Midsona SEK9.40, +0.40) -- new CEO

        • +3.8% JDG.LN (Judges Scientific £71.00, +2.60) -- reports FY EPS 283.4p ex-items vs FactSet 275.6p [6 est, 273.8-276.8p]

        • +3.7% MVIR.SS (Medivir SEK1.55, +0.05) -- receives European patent for fostrox plus lenvatinib in treatment of HCC and cancer metastases in the liver

        • +2.9% SKIS.B.SS (SkiStar SEK168.70, +4.70) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK11.84 vs FactSet SEK11.24 [4 est, SEK11.00-11.40]

        • +2.8% ACE.SS (Ascelia Pharma SEK3.15, +0.09) -- positive outcomes of FDA meeting; confirms plan to submit NDA for Orviglance mid-2025

        • +2.6% TGHN.GR (Logwin €236.00, +6.00) -- reports FY net income €65.6M vs 2-Dec guidance lower than €80.2M; cuts divi by ~9%

        • +2.0% MNG.LN (M&G Plc £2.26, +0.04) -- reports FY EBIT £837M vs consensus £759.5M [5 est, £718-790M]

        • +1.6% RATO.B.SS (Ratos SEK35.96, +0.56) -- to divest airteam to Nalka Invest for ~SEK 1,700M corresponding to a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple

        • +1.3% ENI.IM (Eni €14.33, +0.19) -- Vitol agrees to acquire interests in certain assets owned by Eni in Cote d'Ivoire and the Republic of Congo for an aggregate consideration of $1.65B

        • +1.2% INVE.B.SS (Investor SEK313.00, +3.80) -- Patricia Industries' subsidiary Advanced Instruments enters definitive agreement to acquire Nova Biomedical from its founding shareholders for an enterprise value of $2.2B

        • +0.9% SZU.GR (Suedzucker €11.83, +0.10) -- reports prelim FY consolidated operating result €340M vs guidance at upper area of €175M to €275M guidance range; FactSet €226.5M [5 est, €171-265.2M] (18-Mar, post EU close)

        • +0.8% DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes €39.15, +0.31) -- Dassault Systèmes announces investment in Click Therapeutics; financial details not provided

        • +0.7% DOFG.NO (DOF Group NOK88.20, +0.65) -- refinancing

        • +0.7% HLN.LN (Haleon £3.95, +0.03) -- Pfizer sells ~618M shares in Haleon plc at 385p/each

        • +0.6% BIOV.SW (BioVersys CHF34.70, +0.20) -- first patient has been dosed in a pulmonary TB Phase 2 clinical trial

        • +0.5% GMS.LN (Gulf Marine Services £0.18, -0.00) -- new vessel contract

        • +0.3% DG.FP (VINCI SA €119.90, +0.35) -- Vinci reports Feb airport passenger traffic +4.2%

        • +0.2% FFARMS.DC (FirstFarms DKK83.60, +0.20) -- receives a shareholder proposal from Constantinsborg A/S to delist FirstFarms' shares from trading on Nasdaq Copenhagen

        • +0.2% SPNO.DC (Spar Nord Bank DKK209.00, +0.50) -- Nykredit announces extension of the offer for Spar Nord Bank to 3-Apr

        • +0.2% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £8.97, +0.02) -- reportedly discussing a sale of its German fund administration division to Blackfin Capital Partners - Bloomberg

      • Notable Decliners

        • -23.1% DNR.IM (Industrie De Nora €7.80, -2.32) -- reports final FY earnings inline with prelim. release: Adj. net income €88.8M vs FactSet €79.7M [6 est, €67.0-91M]

        • -14.7% SIFG.NA (Sif Holding €10.32, -1.76) -- reports Q4 EPS (€0.04) vs year-ago €0.32; lowers adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2025

        • -14.2% RAY.B.SS (RaySearch Laboratories SEK238.50, -39.50) -- placing

        • -12.6% STR.AV (STRABAG SE €65.60, -9.50) -- founding Haselsteiner family offered to sell ~1.7% of the company -- Bloomberg, citing terms

        • -9.4% SPA.LN (1Spatial £0.58, -0.06) -- trading update

        • -8.8% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.26, -0.12) -- production from the Triton FPSO is now not expected to recommence before May

        • -6.9% AFC.LN (AFC Energy £0.06, -0.00) -- reports FY net income (£17.4M) vs FactSet (£18.0M) [1 est]

        • -6.6% NXQ.LN (Nexteq £0.64, -0.05) -- earnings

        • -6.2% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €33.40, -2.20) -- Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) places 11M shares at €32.75/share through BofA, Citi and JPMorgan

        • -5.9% ESNT.LN (Essentra £1.09, -0.07) -- reports FY EPS 8.4p vs FactSet 8.4p [6 est, 8.0-8.8p]; expectations for FY2025 remains unchanged

        • -5.8% AVTX.NA (Avantium €1.57, -0.10) -- earnings

        • -5.6% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.78, -0.05) -- reports FY EPS ($7.67) vs year-ago ($14.41); updates on International Investment agreements

        • -5.0% VNV.SS (VNV Global SEK18.00, -0.95) -- notes Israeli Competition Authority has raised certain concerns regards sale of Gett; remains optimistic about reaching a resolution during Q2 of 2025

        • -4.5% AMS.LN (Advanced Medical Solutions Group £2.06, -0.09) -- reports FY Adjusted EPS 10.5p vs FactSet 10.9p [8 est, 9.9-11.4p]; expectations are in line with current consensus forecasts for the full year

        • -3.6% TPE.GR (PVA TePla €14.38, -0.53) -- reports final FY earnings; confirms FY EBITDA of €47.8M, +15% vs year-ago €41.5M and within forecast corridor of €47-51M

        • -3.4% SBS.GR (Stratec €28.50, -1.00) -- postpones publication date of its 2024 Annual Report now scheduled for 29-Apr; expects to achieve the targets announced for the 2024 financial year

        • -3.0% PAF.LN (Pan African Resources $0.41, -0.01) -- holder Tembo Capital has sold the entirety of its position in Pan African, 58.8M shares at a price of 39p per share

        • -3.0% SRAIL.SW (Stadler Rail CHF22.80, -0.70) -- reports FY net income attributable CHF38.4M vs FactSet CHF82.5M [4 est, CHF60.5-108.3M]

        • -2.0% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £24.10, -0.50) -- reports FY underlying EPS 86.4p vs FactSet 124.3p [3 est, 75.7-220.0p]; remains confident in FY25 outlook and beyond

        • -2.0% THEON.NA (Theon International €22.20, -0.45) -- orders

        • -1.3% KER.FP (Kering €215.05, -2.75) -- is actively seeking investors in its €1.3B real estate asset in Milan -- Corriere

        • -1.0% FFARM.NA (ForFarmers €4.83, -0.05) -- UK's CMA clears Boparan's anticipated purchase of ForFarmers' Burston and Radstock feed mill sites

        • -0.9% VNA.GR (Vonovia €25.38, -0.24) -- reports FY EPRA NTA per share €45.2 vs year-ago €46.8; hikes divi by ~36% and guides FY25

        • -0.6% GDWN.LN (Goodwin £67.40, -0.40) -- trading update

        • -0.4% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £37.50, -0.15) -- reports FY adj net income KZT577B vs FactSet KZT452.60B; guides FY25

        • -0.2% TLX.GR (Talanx €95.65, -0.20) -- reports final FY numbers; confirms FY net income €1.98B, +25% vs year-ago €1.58B; confirms FY25 outlook

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Austria: Verbund (VER.AV), Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment (SBO.AV), Semperit Holding (SEM.AV)

        • Benelux: CVC Capital Partners (CVC.NA), Ion Beam Applications (IBAB.BB), Hyloris Pharmaceuticals (HYL.BB)

        • DACHs: RWE (RWE.GR), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR), Nemetschek (NEM.GR), RTL Group (RRTL.GR), DMG MORI (GIL.GR), Lanxess (LXS.GR), OHB (OHB.GR), Deutz (DEZ.GR), SAF-HOLLAND (SFQ.GR), SGL Carbon (SGL.GR), init innovation in traffic systems (IXX.GR), DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate (DMRE.GR), MAX Automation (MXHN.GR)

        • France: Vetoquinol (VETO.FP), Valneva (VLA.FP), Touax (TOUP.FP), Balyo (BALYO.FP), Wallix Group (ALLIX.FP)

        • Nordics: OrderYOYO (YOYO.DC), Flugger Group (FLUG.B.DC)

        • Southern Europe: A2A (A2A.IM), Piovan (PVN.IM), Datalogic (DAL.IM), Altri (ALTR.PL)

        • Switzerland: The Swatch Group (UHR.SW), Swissquote Group Holding (SQN.SW),

        • UK: Energean (ENOG.LN), James Fisher & Sons (FSJ.LN), Hostelworld Group (HSW.LN)

      • Trading Update: Investec (INVP.LN), Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY.LN), Hydrogene de France (HDF.FP)

      • CMD/events: HelloFresh (HFG.GR), Equinor (EQNR.NO) investor update on company's energy transition plan 2025, The Gym Group (GYM.LN), 3i Group (III.LN), Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion (DIA.SM)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Feb CPI +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%; +0.4% m/m vs preliminary +0.5%

        • Feb core CPI +2.6% y/y vs preliminary +2.6%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Apr 25): +$0.30 or +0.45% to $67.20

      • €-$ (0.0062) or (0.57%) to 1.0883

      • £-$ (0.0029) or (0.22%) to 1.2972

      • €-£ (0.0028) to 0.8390

      • S&P 500 +0.75%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +6.53%

        • DAX: +16.97%

        • CAC: +10.71%

        • MIB: +16.23%

        • Stoxx 600: +9.41%

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