Mar 25 ,2025
Synopsis
European indices are set to open mixed amid Asian equities mixed Tuesday. Hang Seng leading China market declines while shares in Japan, Australia and Taiwan all trading higher. US contracts seeing slight decline afterhours.
President Trump confirmed his 2-Apr tariff announcement will include "breaks" for many countries, which follows press reports noting reciprocal tariffs will be more than targeted and include carveouts. Trump foreshadowed product-specific tariff announcements in next few days, targeting areas like autos, chips and pharma. Trump's announcement of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Venezuela also being seen as an extension of his sanctions toolkit after recently targeting a China refiner buying Iranian crude.
On today's agenda, EU's Virkkunen among the speakers at the event 'Enabling Europe's AI Ambitions', organised by the Financial Times and Google. UK parliamentary committee topics include work of the FCA at 10:00GMT, the energy grid and grid connections 10:30 and the UK-EU reset 15:30. Amongst events/conferences on Tue, Institute for Fiscal Studies event at 9:30GMT title How can policy boost productivity growth? and 16th Petersberg Climate Dialogue (PCD) (through Wed) participants includes Norway's minister for climate and environment Eriksen. This is the first ministerial meeting of the year in the run-up to the climate negotiations in Brazil in Nov. Barents Sea conf (through Thu) with Norway's minister for fisheries and the oceans Næss among the participants. European Robotics and AI industry meeting 'European Robotics Forum 2025' (through Thu). Other confs. getting underway in Germany include 109th data protection conf. of the Federal and State governments, mobility innovation summit VDA and the 18th Security Conf. FT hosts event title Enabling Europe's AI Ambitions, speakers include several execs from EP and EU Commission, Google's VP, Government Affairs and Public Policy for Europe and Renault Group's Lead AI Expert.
In central banks, Estonia central bank's Müller speaks at press conf. at 10:00CET in conjunction with the publication of the bank's latest economic forecast. Austria central bank's Holzmann speaks at 11:00CET as the bank releases its 2024 annual report. Croatia central bank's Vujcic panellist at 11:50CET in Warsaw. Slovak central bank publishes its latest quarterly report assessing current economic developments and outlook, governor Kažimír press conf. BOE's Taylor panellist at 15:05GMT and Cleland speech at 15:50 at pay360 (through Wed). Bundesbank's Nagel panellist at 17:00CET at the opening of the Europavillon. Hungary central bank interest rate decision, with benchmark interest rate expected to be left unchanged.
European macro data releases out today include, Germany Mar business climate - Ifo, Spain Feb PPI, Sweden Feb PPI, UK Mar distributive trades - CBI, Finland Feb unemployment rate
In earnings news, DACHs names kicked off the session with Baloise (BALN.SW) and Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR) reporting end of year numbers, whilst Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.SW) issued a presentation updating strategy and outlook ahead of its Capital Markets Day today. In Italy, FNM (FNM.IM), Technoprobe (TPRO.IM) and GVS SpA (GVS.IM) reported FY earnings yesterday after markets closed. Also due to report earnings today includes, Sabaf (SAB.IM), Kingfisher (KGF.LN), Smiths Group (SMIN.LN), Bellway (BWY.LN), and Tullow Oil (TLW.LN).
In other corporate developments, Bloomberg reported that HSBC (HSBA.LN) is considering outsourcing parts of fixed income trading business to firms like Citadel and Jane Street. In M&A, TPG-led consortium to acquire Indian wind-asset portfolio from Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) for $500-550M (~€463-509M), The Economic Times reports.
Politics/Macro/World News
Central banks
UK
'Boost' of £2bn for affordable homes marks a reduction, industry says - FT
Reeves braces for her Spring Statement to be only the start of bad fiscal news - FT
Britons cutting back on spending as confidence in economy falls, survey shows - The Guardian
EU
Cars
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Feb new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK (3.1%) y/y
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DAHCs
KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel) -- guides 2025 EBIT (recurring) between CHF1.50-1.75B vs FactSet CHF1.68B - CMD
MOVE.SW (Medacta Group) -- reports FY net income €72.9M vs FactSet €72.7M [5 est, €68-80.7M]; hikes divi by ~25% and guides FY25
PFV.GR (Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology) -- announces preliminary FY24 EBIT of €57.9M vs year-ago €108.7M
HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding) -- reports preliminary FY adj EBIT €270M vs FactSet €260.0M [7 est, €254-268.1M]
TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien) -- reports Q4 FFO I €1.00 vs FactSet €0.26; confirms 2025 guidance
BALN.SW(Baloise) -- reports FY net income attributable CHF384.8M vs FactSet CHF341.1M [9 est, CHF309.6-373M], raises dividend +5% y/y
BVHN.SW (SKAN Group) -- reports FY EPS CHF1.73 vs FactSet CHF1.60 [4 est, CHF1.55-1.65]
MCHN.SW (MCH Group) -- reports FY net income CHF3.0M vs year-ago (CHF12.8M)
JEN.GR (Jenoptik) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.47 vs FactSet €0.42 [3 est, €0.33-0.49]; expects 2025 Revenue to remain roughly at the prior-year level
France
ABCA.FP (ABC arbitrage) -- reports FY net income €26.8M vs year-ago €16.5M
Southern Europe
FNM.IM (FNM) -- reports FY net income attributable €59.3M vs FactSet €75M [2 est, €69-81M] (post EU close 24-Mar)
GVS.IM (GVS SpA) -- reports FY adjusted net income €47.7M vs FactSet €46.8M (post EU close 24-Mar)
TPRO.IM (Technoprobe) -- reports FY adjusted EBITDA €136.5M vs FactSet €133.9M [7 est, €132.2-137M] (post EU close 24-Mar)
UK
THG.LN (THG Plc) -- announces a proposed refinancing
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
DACHs: Vetropack Holding (VETN.SW), Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI.GR), Viscom (V6C.GR), Medios (ILM1.GR)
France: Groupe Crit (CEN.FP), Exclusive Networks (EXN.FP), HERIGE (ALHGR.FP),
Nordics: Cadeler (CADLR.NO), Constellation Oil Services Holding (COSH.NO)
Southern Europe: Sabaf (SAB.IM), TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Cairo Communication (CAI.IM), Equita Group (EQUI.IM)
UK: Kingfisher (KGF.LN), Smiths Group (SMIN.LN), Bellway (BWY.LN), Tullow Oil (TLW.LN), A.G. BARR (BAG.LN), Ashtead Technology Holdings (AT.LN), IP Group (IPO.LN), Michelmersh Brick Holdings (MBH.LN), Ultimate Products (ULTP.LN), Xaar (XAR.LN), W.A.G. Payment Solutions (WPS.LN), M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN), EKF Diagnostics Holdings (EKF.LN), Personal Group Holdings (PGH.LN), Henry Boot (BOOT.LN)
CMD/events: Shell (SHEL.LN), TUI (TUI1.GR), DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA) sustainability, Legrand (LR.FP) Corporate Social Responsibility, Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi (ROVI.SM), Holcim (HOLN.SW) for Amrize spinoff
M&A
ENR.GR (Siemens Energy) -- TPG-led consortium to acquire Indian wind-asset portfolio from Siemens Energy for $500-550M (~€463-509M) - Economic Times
ELE.SM (Endesa) -- enters agreement with Masdar for the sale of a 49.99% minority stake in Enel Green Power España Solar 2, S.L.U.
NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group) -- Taqa reaches out to CriteriaCaixa to revive offer for stake in Naturgy Energy - Bloomberg
SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine) -- completes acquisition of remaining 30% stake of Mediton
CALN.SW (Calida Holding) -- Calida receives claim for damages from the purchaser of Lafuma Mobilier in the amount of €39M
PVN.IM (Piovan) -- notes final results in relation to Automation Systems' offer; 98.91% of share capital reached
1662.JP (Japan Petroleum Exploration) -- to sell JAPEX UK E&P to Ithaca Energy (UK) for $223M (¥33.55B)
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Sanofi's tolebrutinib regulatory submission accepted for priority review in the US for patients with multiple sclerosis
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- proposes appointment of Chris Martin as Independent Chairman
IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications) -- announces launch of a share buyback program, effective as of 25-Mar
Other
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- HSBC considers outsourcing parts of fixed income trading business to firms like Citadel and Jane Street - Bloomberg
HLN.LN (Haleon) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by PFIZER INC)
HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials) -- plans to increase dividend by 10% to €3.30 per share
BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder) -- proposes distributing holding of ~90.5M Norion Bank shares to Balder shareholders
TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular) -- completes previously announced delisting from Nasdaq Stockholm
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Feb new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK (3.1%) y/y
Key rating changes
Upgrades
RPI.LN (Raspberry Pi Holdings) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
Downgrades
NESTE.FH (Neste) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
AF.FP (Air France-KLM) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
SGL.GR (SGL Carbon) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
8TRA.GR (TRATON) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
YAR.NO (Yara International) -- downgraded to hold from buy at SEB
OR.FP (L'Oreal) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
ALC.SW (Alcon AG) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec) -- to reduce from buy at HSBC
Initiations
COTY.FP (Coty) -- buy at Berenberg
PUIG.SM (Puig Brands) -- hold at Berenberg
NCAB.SS (NCAB Group) -- hold at SEB
OMV.AV (OMV) -- outperform at Santander
Other Actions
NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA) -- long-term issuer credit rating and issue rating upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB+', outlook stable at Standard & Poor's
Data
Nikkei +0.46% to 37780.54
Hang Seng (2.07%) to 23411.52
Shanghai Composite (0.01%) to 3369.83
S&P futures (9.3) vs prior close of 5815.5
€-$ (0.0008) or (0.08%) to 1.0794
$-¥ (0.25) or (0.17%) to 150.45
€-¥ (0.38) or (0.23%) to 162.40
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