Mar 27 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended lower, but off worst levels. Among EU sectors, Basic Resources, Construct & Mtls, Technology and Autos & Parts main decliners while Retail and Utilities best performers.
Shares of European carmakers - except for Ferrari (RACE.IM) and Renault (RNO.FP) suffered sharp losses, after US President Trump announced permanent tariffs on all autos not produced in US and automotive components. Said rate will begin at 2.5% before increasing to 25%, and there will be no exceptions. Effective 2-Apr, tariffs will impact ~50% of US vehicle market, potentially increasing vehicle prices by $3,900 and threatening to reduce market volumes by up to 10%. Separately, FT sources noted EU bracing for US tariffs of ~20%.
On the macro calendar, Norges Bank left policy unchanged, as expected. Eurozone M3 money supply growth came in ahead of expectations, though not a market mover. French 2024 budget deficit was smaller than expected at 5.8% of GDP versus government forecast of 6.0%. Takeaways from yesterday's UK fiscal statement highlighted pressures on public finances to remain despite rebuild of headroom via £14B in fiscal consolidation.
On a busy reporting front, DACH names in focus, with Kontron (KTN.GR), CEWE Stiftung & Co (CWC.GR), Rational (RAA.GR), SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR), adesso SE (ADN1.GR), Symrise (SY1.GR) and Jungheinrich (JUN3.GR) among few other names from the region to post updates. In the UK, shares in Next (NXT.LN) released FY results whilst - in the Nordics - H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) issued Q1 earnings.
In M&A news, PAI and Bain are reportedly considering bids for Nestle (NESN.SW) water unit valued at ~€5B, whilst MFE-MediaForEurope confirmed a voluntary public takeover offer to acquire ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR); also BP (BP.LN) is examining selling up to a 50% stake in Kaskida and Tiber projects.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Mar unemployment rate, Apr consumer confidence - GfK, France Mar preliminary CPI, Feb consumer goods spending, PPI, Feb consumer goods spending, Italy Mar business/consumer confidence, Feb PPI, Spain Mar preliminary CPI, UK Q4 final GDP, Feb retail sales and Jan trade balance (delayed from 14-Mar), Eurozone Mar economic sentiment indicator and Switzerland Mar leading indicator - KOF.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Retail +1.96%, Utilities +0.94%, Food & Beverage +0.42%, Insurance +0.34%, Media (0.03%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.12%), Real Estate (0.14%), Oil & Gas (0.21%), Telecom (0.30%)
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (1.95%), Construct & Mtls (1.25%), Technology (1.22%), Autos & Parts (1.01%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.81%), Banks (0.81%), Financial Svcs (0.73%), Chemicals (0.71%), Travel & Leisure (0.67%), Health Care (0.57%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
European airlines urge EU to pull back on climate policies -- FT
UK:
UK in 'intense negotiations' with US over 25% car tariff, says chancellor -- ITV
The five steps that could lead to UK tax rises in October -- BBC
UK to lead post-war peacekeeping push in Ukraine -- UKDefenceJournal
Germany:
Germany got 1T for free, Deutsche Bank chairman says -- Bloomberg
France:
Can France really lead 'the little west'? -- FT
Italy:
Italy is concerned but not 'terrified' by potential Trump wine tariffs, minister says -- Reuters
Austria
Austria's Enduring Recession Puts Coalition Deficit Goal at Risk -- Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+29.8% WINE.LN (Naked Wines £0.80, +0.19) -- Strategy Event update; Panmure Liberum upgrade
+14.7% ENQ.LN (EnQuest £0.15, +0.02) -- FY earnings
+10.5% NXT.LN (Next £107.05, +10.49) -- FY earnings
+9.9% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.10, +0.01) -- to buy Pizzeria 105 in Poland for PLN42.3M (£8.4M)
+9.1% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £2.06, +0.18) -- trial data presentation
+8.3% UMI.BB (Umicore €10.11, +0.77) -- CMD update
+8.2% SAAS.LN (Microlise Group Holdings £1.09, +0.09) -- FY earnings; initiated buy at Canaccord Genuity
+6.4% IOS.GR (IONOS Group €23.35, +1.55) -- FY earnings
+6.0% BONAV.B.SS (Bonava SEK9.31, +0.53) -- CMD update
+5.5% VOS.GR (Vossloh €66.80, +3.50) -- FY earnings
+5.4% IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics SEK6.98, +0.36) -- to initiate study of IRL757 in Parkinsons's disease
+5.1% CLA.B.SS (Cloetta SEK28.36, +1.38) -- Investor Day update
+4.5% TITC.BB (Titan Cement International €43.25, +1.90) -- FY earnings
+4.1% WYN.LN (Wynnstay Group £2.95, +0.12) -- AGM statement
+4.1% REJL.B.SS (Rejlers SEK180.40, +7.20) -- updated strategy and new long-term targets:
+4.0% FRAN.LN (Franchise Brands £1.40, +0.05) -- FY earnings
+3.8% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK237.60, +8.60) -- initiated buy at Pareto
+3.4% TOWN.LN (Town Centre Securities £1.36, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+3.2% PUUILO.FH (Puuilo €12.01, +0.37) -- FY earnings; €100M long-term financing agreement
+3.1% VIL.FP (Viel & Cie €13.30, +0.40) -- FY earnings
+2.3% RBREW.DC (Royal Unibrew DKK549.00, +12.50) -- initiated buy at Goldman Sachs
+2.3% SRE.LN (Sirius Real Estate £0.85, +0.02) -- acquisition
+2.3% CLI.LN (CLS Holdings £0.73, +0.02) -- divestment
+2.1% ELE.SM (Endesa €24.14, +0.50) -- approves share buy-back framework
+1.8% RACE.IM (Ferrari €0.00, +7.00) -- updates commercial policy
+1.4% JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich €35.06, +0.46) -- FY earnings
Notable Decliners
-14.3% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €4.96, -0.73)
-12.9% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €1.44, -0.22) -- FY earnings
-11.3% ESM (eDreams ODIGEO €7.56, -0.97) -- holder Permira places 7.4M at €7.55/share
-11.0% TRI.FP (Trigano €108.00, -13.00) -- Q2 revenue; Oddo downgrade
-10.2% PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media €5.90, -0.67) -- MFE-MediaForEurope (MFEB.IM) confirms voluntary public takeover offer to acquire ProSiebenSat.1 Media
-8.8% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €19.13, -1.89) -- final FY earnings
-8.4% ALAFY.FP (Afyren $1.60, -0.15) -- FY earnings
-8.3% ECOR.LN (Ecora Resources £0.60, -0.06) -- FY earnings
-7.8% FR.FP (Valeo SE €9.47, -0.77) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-7.6% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK19.04, -1.57) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-6.7% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £0.70, -0.05) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-6.1% ODF.NO (Odfjell NOK93.40, -6.10) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.9% VCT.LN (Victrex £8.97, -0.55) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-5.4% KTN.GR (Kontron €22.90, -1.32) -- FY earnings
-5.0% ALCAR.FP (Carmat €0.84, -0.04) -- flexible equity financing line with IRIS Capital Investment, for a maximum of 9.0M shares
-4.9% RAA.GR (Rational €758.00, -40.00) -- Q4 earnings
-4.9% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners NOK77.05, -4.05) -- completes the sale of owned vessel Höegh New Yor
-4.3% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €9.25, -0.42) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
-4.2% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €10.93, -0.48) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US; UK Feb car manufacturing (7.6%) y/y to 73,814 units -- SMMT
-4.1% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF28.44, -1.20) -- BofA downgrade
-4.0% SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group €10.22, -0.42) -- FY earnings
-4.0% MRX.GR (Mister Spex €1.59, -0.06) -- FY earnings
-3.3% TRMD.A.DC (TORM Plc DKK118.10, -4.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-2.7% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €55.96, -1.56) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US; UK Feb car manufacturing (7.6%) y/y to 73,814 units -- SMMT
-2.6% P911.GR (Porsche €47.84, -1.31) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-2.5% TRB.LN (Tribal Group £0.38, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-2.5% PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE €36.13, -0.94) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-2.5% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €77.20, -2.02) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US; UK Feb car manufacturing (7.6%) y/y to 73,814 units -- SMMT; Barclays downgrade
-2.4% CON.GR (Continental €68.02, -1.68) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-1.6% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £2.44, -0.04) -- FY earnings
-1.5% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €8.30, -0.13) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US
-1.5% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €98.76, -1.50) -- Trump announces 25% tariffs on all autos not made in the US; UK Feb car manufacturing (7.6%) y/y to 73,814 units -- SMMT
-1.3% EUZ.GR (Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik €54.60, -0.70) -- FY earnings
-1.0% BRNK.GR (Branicks Group €2.05, -0.02) -- early repayment of a further €100M promissory note loan
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: InPost (INPST.NA)
DACHs: Deutsche EuroShop (DEQ.GR), secunet Security Networks (YSN.GR), Wüstenrot & Württembergische (WUW.GR), OVB Holding (O4B.GR), Basler (BSL.GR), Grammer (GMM.GR), Masterflex (MZX.GR), Homag Group (HG1.GR), 4SC (VSC.GR), MediClin (MED.GR), Sixt (SIX2.GR), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Schlatter Industries (STRN.SW)
France: Actia Group (ALATI.FP)
Southern Europe: Expert.ai (EXAI.IM)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Feb M3 Money Supply +4.0% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and prior +3.6%
Spain Feb Retail Sales +3.6% y/y vs cons +1.0% and prior revised +2.3% from +2.2%; +1.3% m/m vs cons +0.5% and prior (1.4%)
Denmark Feb Retail Sales (0.1%) y/y vs prior revised +5.0% from +5.4%
Norway Feb Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs consensus 3.9% and prior 3.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-May): +$0.15 or +0.22% to $69.80
€-$ +0.0042 or +0.39% to 1.0796
£-$ +0.0071 or +0.55% to 1.2960
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8330
S&P 500 (0.05%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.03%
DAX: +13.91%
CAC: +8.26%
MIB: +14.37%
Stoxx 600: +7.62%
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