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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.88%) to 8582.81, DAX (1.33%) to 22163.49, CAC40 (1.58%) to 7790.71, STOXX 600 (1.51%) to 533.92

Mar 31 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed lower but off the session's lowest levels. Basic resources, travel and autos the big decliners on US tariff anxiety. Energy, telecom and utilities outperformed. Follows last week's mostly negative close for major European markets.

    • Markets remain captive to trade headlines ahead of Wednesday's reciprocal tariff announcement. Trump said reciprocal tariffs would apply to all countries, seemingly contradicting press reports suggesting some would receive exemptions. Latest press reports note Trump privately pushing more aggressive approach and recently revived idea of universal tariffs. Trump's hardline approach fueling concerns about downside risks to economic growth. Has resulted in some analysts revising their forecast for Fed rate cut cycle.

    • On macro calendar, German retail sales better-than-expected in February update. Flash HICP for Germany lower than expected, while Italy up over +2% for first time since 2023. UK mortgage appovals slightly lower. UK Lloyds Bank business barometer showed jump in retailer optimism for year ahead. Follows upside surprise in Friday's retail sales data.

    • UK PM Starmer spoke with Trump on tariffs and agreed talks would continue at pace this week. Officials fear they will not have a deal in time to avoid 2-Apr tariff announcement. Elsewhere, France's Le Pen found guilty in case over misuse of EU funds, preventing her from running in 2027 presidential election. Appeals expected.

    • M&A news dominated the headlines in the morning: Fortnox (FNOX.SS) recommended shareholders to accept the SEK 90/share cash offer from EQT X and First Kraft announced on 31-Mar-25 whilst - in Italy - Poste Italiane (PST.IM) acquired Vivendi (VIV.FP) 15% stake in Telecom Italia (TIT.IM) for €684M in cash and - in the banking sector - wires reported that ING Groep (INGA.NA) and Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BPSO.IM) have discussed a potential merger. In Germany, Norges Bank Investment Management acquires 49% equity stake in RWE (RWE.GR) 1.6-gigawatt Nordseecluster and 1.1-gigawatt Thor offshore wind projects for ~€1.4B at closing and Biotest (BIO3.GR) concluded the delisting agreement, with Grifols Biotest Holdings GmbH (GRF.SM) making a public delisting acquisition offer for €43.00/sh in cash. Elsewhere, Wartsila (WRT1V.FH) announced the conclusion of its strategic review, whilst CANCOM (COK.GR), Pennon Group (PNN.LN) and Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN) issued their most recent numbers

    • A few updates regarding management changes across Europe; Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS) CEO Jim Rowan has stepped down, with former CEO Håkan Samuelsson returning to the helm for a two-year interim period starting April 1st. In the seafood industry, Andreas Kvame has agreed with the board of Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO) to step down as CEO after a decade in the role, with Nina Willumsen Grieg appointed as interim CEO. Flex LNG (FLNG.NO) CEO Øystein Kalleklev has resigned to pursue other opportunities, with Marius Foss, the Chief Commercial Officer, appointed as interim CEO. Adding to the wave of executive departures, Paul Marchant has resigned as the Chief Executive of Primark, the unit of Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), with immediate effect. Still in the UK, Reach (RCH.LN) Jim Mullen stepped down as CEO with immediate effect , with Piers North, currently Chief Revenue Officer, being appointed as new CEO.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Oil & Gas +0.06%, Telecom (0.07%), Utilities (0.39%), Real Estate (0.54%), Insurance (0.98%), Food & Beverage (1.04%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.13%), Retail (1.16%), Chemicals (1.38%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Basic Resources (3.29%), Travel & Leisure (2.88%), Autos & Parts (2.60%), Construct & Mtls (2.59%), Financial Svcs (2.35%), Ind Goods & Svcs (2.06%), Media (2.04%), Technology (2.01%), Banks (1.83%), Health Care (1.55%)

    • Macro:

      • Geopolitics

        • Trump threatens tariffs on Russian oil amid frustration over Ukraine peace talks - Politico, Telegraph

        • Germany's Scholz says EU open to compromise on US tariffs - AFP

        • Meloni calls for calm amid EU-US tariff war and transatlantic tensions - Guardian

        • Von der Leyen says Europe's peace will be strengthened through resilience and innovation - Corriere

      • Finland

        • Working group on population policy submits its proposal for boosting birth rate - press release

      • France:

        • LePen faces trial verdict that could end her presidential ambitions - NYT, Reuters, Politico

      • Norway

        • Government proposed that district heating customers will be treated equally with electricity customers; proposing to introduce both Norway Price and electricity subsidy for households using district heating - press release

      • Germany:

        • Germany's defense spending surge increases borrowing costs and Eurozone debt pressures - FT

      • Greece:

        • Government will present the country's defense modernization plan to Parliament on Wed - ekathimerini

      • UK:

        • UK job vacancies surge in Feb despite economic uncertainty - Reuters

        • UK business confidence holds steady amid retail surge and economic uncertainty - Reuters

        • Starmer and Trump discuss trade deal amid looming tariff threats - Bloomberg

        • UK braces for economic turmoil as Trump's tariffs and domestic challenges mount - London Times, London Times

      • Sweden:

        • Presented its largest military support package to Ukraine to date, valued at almost SEK16B - press release

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +10.5% POXEL.FP (Poxel €0.27, +0.03) -- Imeglimin new patent in Japan for use in type-2 diabetic patients with renal impairment

        • +9.2% CRTA.LN (Cirata £0.20, +0.02) -- FY earnings; $2M contract

        • +8.4% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK54.25, +4.20) -- CEO and Chair step down

        • +7.7% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £0.70, +0.05) -- holder Yew Tree Consortium to increase stake to ~33%

        • +5.3% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €9.51, +0.48) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade

        • +4.6% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK30.80, +1.35) -- initiated buy at Bryan Garnier

        • +4.3% DIA.LN (Dialight £1.21, +0.05) -- FY trading update

        • +3.4% VIVE.SS (Vivesto SEK0.25, +0.01) -- acquires drug candidate Cantrixil property and trademarks rights for $1M

        • +3.3% HLG.GR (Highlight Communications €1.27, +0.04) -- Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $75.4M, (45.1%) y/y - Box Office Mojo

        • +2.4% VAR.NO (Vår Energi NOK33.91, +0.78) -- production from the Johan Castberg field commenced on 31-Mar

      • Notable Decliners

        • -28.9% WG.LN (John Wood Group £0.28, -0.12) -- update on independent review and results publication

        • -14.4% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €15.15, -2.55) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -14.1% COK.GR (CANCOM €22.72, -3.72) -- FY earnings

        • -13.8% MAU.FP (Maurel et Prom €4.90, -0.78) -- confirms revocation of Venezuela license by US' OFAC; Portzamparc downgrade

        • -13.2% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.03, -0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • -11.8% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €11.19, -1.50) -- resumed reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • -10.9% BVXP.LN (Bioventix £24.50, -3.00) -- H1 earnings

        • -10.4% GENL.LN (Genel Energy £0.64, -0.07) -- Talks to restart Kurdish oil exports through Iraq-Turkey pipeline have hit snag as lack of clarity over payments and contracts persists -- Reuters, citing sources

        • -9.7% YOU.LN (YouGov £2.80, -0.30) -- H1 earnings

        • -9.6% GBT.FP (Guerbet €18.30, -1.95) -- Portzamparc downgrade

        • -7.5% PETS.LN (Pets At Home Group £2.19, -0.18) -- FY25 pre-close statement

        • -7.1% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £1.97, -0.15) -- AGM trading statement

        • -5.9% RCH.LN (Reach £0.71, -0.05) -- CEO steps down

        • -5.5% HLUN.B.DC (H. Lundbeck DKK34.70, -2.02) -- reaches 75% recruitment target in SC dose-finding part (Part A) in phase IIb PROCEED trial

        • -5.3% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.61, -0.03) -- sells 9 sites for €32M

        • -5.3% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €16.40, -0.91) -- new financial targets; conclusion of strategic review

        • -5.3% VLA.FP (Valneva €3.10, -0.17) -- submits adolescent label extension application for IXCHIQ to UK MHRA

        • -4.4% HOT.GR (Hochtief €157.20, -7.30) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -4.4% BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena €7.32, -0.33) --

          • ISS recommends Monte dei Paschi shareholders vote against proposed share issue to fund bid for Mediobanca - Reuters

          • Mediobanca reports top shareholders Delfin and Caltagirone to ECB over concerns they are set to gain control of three big financial institutions without approval - FT

        • -4.2% GRF.SM (Grifols €8.22, -0.36) -- acquisition offer for Biotest AG for €43.00/share in cash

        • -4.1% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €6.31, -0.27) -- re-fleeting of Marella Cruises

        • -3.9% THG.LN (THG Plc £0.32, -0.01) -- holder Frasers Group raises state to ~10.93% from ~6.10% as at 28-Mar - Filing

        • -3.6% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €70.40, -2.60) -- KeyBanc downgrade

        • -3.4% N91.LN (Ninety One Plc £1.45, -0.05) -- to increase the initial tranche of share buyback program

        • -3.4% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.95, -0.07) -- Talks to restart Kurdish oil exports through Iraq-Turkey pipeline have hit snag as lack of clarity over payments and contracts persists -- Reuters, citing sources

        • -3.2% BPE.IM (BPER Banca €7.22, -0.24) -- ING Groep, Banca Popolare di Sondrio have met about potential merger - Reuters

        • -2.8% VALMT.FH (Valmet €24.95, -0.71) -- plans to renew its operating model; to cut 1,150 jobs

        • -2.6% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK304.20, -8.00) -- SEK 90/share cash offer for Fortnox

        • -2.5% BAMI.IM (Banco BPM €9.35, -0.24) -- Unicredit's board resolves the share capital increase reserved to the voluntary public exchange offer for Banco BPM

        • -2.3% METSB.FH (Metsa Board €3.45, -0.08) -- new CEO

        • -2.1% ELON.SS (Elon AB SEK22.90, -0.50) -- new CEO

        • -2.0% NOEJ.GR (Norma Group €12.68, -0.26) -- FY earnings

        • -1.8% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £4.45, -0.08) -- FY trading update

        • -1.7% FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO €21.16, -0.37) -- new Chairman

        • -1.4% IDOX.LN (IDOX £0.57, -0.01) -- trading update

        • -1.4% ABF.LN (Associated British Foods £19.14, -0.27) -- Primark CEO resigns

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: Onward Medical (ONWD.BB)

        • UK: Pinewood Technologies Group (PINE.LN), Serica Energy (SQZ.LN), NIOX Group (NIOX.LN)

      • CMD/events: Bayer (BAYN.GR) Pharma media day, PORR (POS.AV)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Denmark Q4 GDP +4.4% y/y vs preliminary +4.1%; +1.8% q/q vs preliminary +1.6%

      • Italy Mar Preliminary CPI +2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.6%; +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.2%

      • Germany Feb Retail Sales +4.9% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and prior +2.9%; +0.8% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.2%

      • Greece Jan Retail Sales +1.9% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and prior revised (5.3%) from (5.4%)

      • UK

        • Feb M4 Money Supply +0.2% m/m vs consensus +1.1% and prior revised +1.4% from +1.3%

        • Feb Mortgage Approvals 65.48K vs consensus 66.0K and prior revised 66.04K from 66.19K

      • Portugal

        • Mar Preliminary CPI +1.9% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and prior +2.1%

        • Feb Unemployment Rate 6.4% vs consensus 6.3% and prior revised 6.3% from 6.2%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (May 25): +$1.75 or +2.52% to $71.11

      • €-$ (0.0023) or (0.21%) to 1.0807

      • £-$ (0.0030) or (0.23%) to 1.2911

      • €-£ +0.0002 to 0.8368

      • S&P 500 (0.59%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +5.02%

        • DAX: +11.36%

        • CAC: +5.55%

        • MIB: +11.37%

        • Stoxx 600: +5.19%

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