Apr 01 ,2025
Synopsis:
European markets closed higher following broad weakness on Monday. Germany +1.7%, Spain +1.4% and Italy +1.3% lead outperformers, whilst Norway 0.1%, Belgium and the UK +0.6% lead underperformers.
Market seems to be in waiting mode for tomorrow's tariff announcements. Trump said he has settled on a plan, though latest reports continue to highlight multiple options. Some concern about lingering talk of a ~20% universal tariff. While this fits with Trump's longstanding desire to restructure global trade, it also dampens the potential for negotiations expected to follow the reciprocal levies. Uncertainty surrounding additional sectoral tariffs another overhang.
On data front, Eurozone headline inflation eased as expected, but core softer-than-forecast. Final euro area manufacturing PMI revised slightly lower, while UK reading revised up. Eurozone unemployment weaker than expected. UK Nationwide house price data showed a flat reading in March. Elsewhere, Bloomberg sources said April ECB decision still open. ECB report warns on impact of geopolitical risk on financial stability. BoE's Greene sounded concerned over wage growth and rising inflation expectations. France's Le Pen's five-year ban from public office generating a lot of headlines due to possible impact on stability of current government and next presidential race in 2027.
Light earnings releases today; out of the UK, Travis Perkins (TPK.LN), Serica Energy (SQZ.LN) and Greencore Group (GNC.LN) reproted before the open. In the pharma Nordics space, Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.DC) received the FDA approval of freeze-dried Smallpox and Mpox vaccine, whilst Gubra (GUBRA.DC) announced positive GUBamy Phase 1 interim MAD results.
In M&A news, CaixaBank (CABK.SM) selected Apollo, KKR and Balbec Capital to bid for portfolio of non-performing mortgages worth €600M. Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) acquired a minority stake in Icen Risk to expand M&A coverage. Unilever (ULVR.LN) bought the personal care brand Wild and Fluidra (FSM) acquired a 27% stake in robotic cleaner player Aiper for $100M; also, Colruyt Group (COLR.BB) says it is investigating several strategic options for its French integrated retail activities.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 31-Mar to 04-Apr attached) Raspberry Pi Holdings (RPI.LN), Big Technologies (BIG.LN), Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (DFCH.LN), MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS), Dustin Group (DUST.LN), Synergie (SDG.FP), technotrans (TTR1.GR), Oberbank (OBS.AV), Spadel (SPA.BB), Celyad Oncology (CYAD.BB) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Spain Mar unemployment change, Ireland Mar unemployment rate.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +1.70%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.55%, Banks +1.55%, Retail +1.21%, Basic Resources +1.21%, Telecom +1.15%, Insurance +1.15%, Autos & Parts +1.13%,
Underperformers:
Media (0.03%), Oil & Gas +0.11%, Food & Beverage +0.47%, Utilities +0.57%, Travel & Leisure +0.58%, Health Care +0.74%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.87%, Construct & Mtls +0.89%, Chemicals +0.93%, Real Estate +0.99%, Financial Svcs +1.03%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
BOE's Greene Says Rates Should Continue to Restrain UK Economy - Bloomberg
EU
Brussels doubles amount of EU cash available for affordable housing - Politico
EU has a 'strong plan' to retaliate on Trump tariffs, says von der Leyen - The Guardian
UK
UK will take calm approach to US tariffs, PM says - BBC
Trump tariffs 'risk wiping out Reeves's £10bn headroom' - The Telegraph
Donald Trump signs off Chagos Islands deal between UK and Mauritius - FT
France
Germany
Union is one percentage point ahead of the AfD according to the survey - Handelsblatt
Companies in Germany hold on to staff despite recession - Handelsblatt
Germany's Lower Saxony state premier to resign, say sources - Reuters
Italy
US-Italy, Vice President Vance schedules a meeting in Rome with Meloni - ilsole24ore
Portugal
Finalnd
Finland to exit landmines treaty, hike defence spending given Russia threat, PM says - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+15.3% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF2.13, +0.29) -- signs module supply agreement for Italy with OGT Solar
+12.6% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK1.68, +0.19) -- FDA lifts clinical hold previously placed on Oncopeptides' next-gen drug OPD5
+8.2% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.45, +0.11) -- FY earnings
+7.8% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €26.40, +1.90) -- prelim FY earnings
+6.8% BONEX.SS (BONESUPPORT HOLDING SEK311.80, +20.00) -- submits FDA market authorization application for its antibiotic eluting bone graft substitute, CERAMENT V
+6.0% ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding CHF255.50, +14.50) -- initiated buy at UBS
+5.8% GNC.LN (Greencore Group £1.79, +0.10) -- Q2 trading update
+3.6% EXA.FP (Exail Technologies €38.80, +1.35) -- order
+3.4% ENAV.IM (ENAV €3.77, +0.12) -- FY earnings
+3.4% SPI.LN (Spire Healthcare Group £1.83, +0.06) -- acquires Acorn Occupational Health Limited for £3.3M
+3.1% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €28.65, +0.85) -- initiated outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
+2.3% ADVN.SW (Adval Tech Holding CHF68.00, +1.50) -- Chair to step down
+2.3% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK153.20, +3.40) -- receives U.S. FDA approval of freeze-dried Smallpox and Mpox vaccine
+2.2% SU.FP (Schneider Electric €215.80, +4.60) -- HSBC upgrade
+2.2% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €6.45, +0.14) -- initiated buy at Hauck & Aufhäuser
+1.8% SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig NOK36.60, +0.65) -- Q1 update
+1.5% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK34.22, +0.50) -- contract
Trading Lower:
-32.0% ALMKT.FP (Mauna Kea Technologies €0.12, -0.05) -- announces opening of safeguard proceeding to restructure financial liabilities; enters into exclusive negotiations for a licensing agreement for Cellvizio
-30.3% ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy €0.60, -0.26) -- FY earnings; updates on financial situation and cash runway
-18.0% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.21, -0.05) -- completes the disposal of the genetics business
-9.3% TPK.LN (Travis Perkins £4.99, -0.51) -- FY earnings
-6.5% DOC.AV (DO & CO €150.00, -10.60) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-6.4% CLI.LN (CLS Holdings £0.66, -0.04) -- FY earnings
-2.7% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £2.70, -0.08) -- transferred hold at Peel Hunt
-2.5% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK1,306.00, -34.00) -- Bernstein downgrade
-2.4% SBRY.LN (J Sainsbury £2.30, -0.06) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Spadel (SPA.BB), Celyad Oncology (CYAD.BB)
DACHs: technotrans (TTR1.GR), Oberbank (OBS.AV)
France: Synergie (SDG.FP)
Nordics: MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS), Dustin Group (DUST.LN)
UK: Raspberry Pi Holdings (RPI.LN), Big Technologies (BIG.LN), Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (DFCH.LN)
Trading Update: Topps Tiles (TPT.LN), Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS (MOEX.RU), Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS)
CMD/events: Nokia (NOKIA.FH) executive briefing at OFC 2025, FACC (FACC.AV)
Data:
Economics:
Mar preliminary CPI
Austria +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and prior +3.2%
Netherlands +3.7% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior +3.8%
Eurozone +2.2% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and prior +2.3%
Mar Manufacturing PMI
Spain 49.5 vs consensus 50.0 and prior 49.7
Switzerland 48.9 vs consensus 49.8 and prior 49.6
Italy 46.6 vs consensus 48.0 and prior 47.4
France 48.5 vs preliminary 48.9
Germany 48.3 vs preliminary 48.3
Eurozone 48.6 vs preliminary 48.7
Norway 50.6 vs consensus 52.0 and prior 51.9
UK 44.9 vs preliminary 44.6
Sweden 53.6 vs consensus 52.0 and prior 53.5
Eurozone Feb Unemployment Rate 6.1% vs consensus 6.2% and prior 6.2%
UK Mar Nationwide House Price Index +3.9% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and prior +3.9%
Switzerland Feb Retail Sales +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior revised +2.9% from +1.3% (earlier, 2:30 ET)
Italy Feb Unemployment Rate 5.9% vs consensus 6.3% and prior revised 6.2% from 6.3%
Greece
Mar business expectations in industry index 112.4 vs prior 110.0 and year-ago 111.9 - IOBE
Feb Unemployment Rate 8.6% vs consensus 8.8% and prior revised 9.1% from 8.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 25): +$0.07 or +0.10% to $71.55
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.0803
£-$ +0.0004 or +0.03% to 1.2921
€-£ (0.0012) to 0.8361
S&P 500 +0.29%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.65%
DAX: +13.21%
CAC: +6.72%
MIB: +12.79%
Stoxx 600: +6.31%
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