Apr 01 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher as a new quarter gets underway whilst Asian equities recovering Tuesday, though sentiment still somewhat cautious ahead of Trump's tariff announcement. Hang Seng leading China markets while Taiwan and Korea outperforming on a rebound in semis. Japan and Australia seeing milder gains. S&P 500 futures lower afterhours.
Tariff headlines remain volatile with markets digesting weekend press reports highlighting Trump's preference for more aggressive tariffs than what has been suggested. Still a lot of uncertainty surrounding final outcome, including whether tariffs will apply to all or some countries, the tariff rate(s), duration, timing of sectoral tariff announcement, and if Trump opts for across-the-board tariffs. Speaking earlier Trump provided little additional clarity, though did signal leniency for some countries.
European equities shone in Q1 amid tariff turmoil and fiscal boost: European equity markets excelled in Q1 2025, with the STOXX 600 up 5.77% despite a March dip, outpacing the S&P 500's (5.1%) drop-its worst quarter since 2020 (see related StreetAccount Summary - EU Quarterly Recap (Q1 2025))
On the political front tpday, EU's von der Leyen participates in the EP plenary debate at 9:00CET on the conclusions of the European Council meeting of 20-Mar. In UK, parliamentary committee topics include the first of a series of evidence sessions on the Chancellor's Spring Statement (10:00BST with execs from Office of Budget Responsibility, then with leading economists, including IFS and Resolution Foundation at 14:05). Also on Tue, France, Italy, Spain Mar new car registrations and Watch Fair "Watches and Wonders" in Geneva (through Sun). Eight Opec+ members plan to gradually end voluntary production cuts over the next 18 months starting this month, and EU tariffs on imports of American products including bourbon whiskey and jeans are due to come into effect.
In central banks, Riksbank's Jansson speech at 9:00CET (summary published at 10:00) at Nordea's London office on current monetary policy and BOE's Green speech at 9:15BST at the UK Women in Economics annual networking event. ECB's Cipollone speech at 10:20CET at Regional Governors' Meeting organised by the Croatian National Bank and ECB's Lagarde speech at 14:30CET at conf "The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges", other speakers include ECB's Lane at 18:30 (also moderates panel at 16:05 on Wed), whilst ECB's Acre speaks and chair panel on Wed.
European macro data releases out today include, Italy, Norway, Spain, Switzerland Mar manufacturing PMIs and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, Italy Feb unemployment rate, Eurozone Mar preliminary CPI, Feb unemployment rate, Switzerland Mar manufacturing PMI, Feb retail sales, UK Mar house price index - Nationwide, Netherlands Mar preliminary CPI, Feb retail sales, Finland Mar preliminary HICP, Austria Mar preliminary CPI, unemployment rate, Greece Feb unemployment rate
In earnings news, in the DACHs region Newron Pharmaceuticals (NWRN.SW) reported FY earnings and specified its outlook for 2025. In France, McPhy Energy (ALMCP.FP) and Solutions 30 (SB30.FP) issued end of year numbers. Also due to report today includes Onward Medical (ONWD.BB), Pinewood Technologies Group (PINE.LN), Serica Energy (SQZ.LN), NIOX Group (NIOX.LN), whilst Bayer (BAYN.GR) is due to issue an update in connection to its CMD today.
In M&A, Michelin SA (ML.FP) announced that TBC will sell its Midas franchise network to Mavis Tire Express Service Corp and expects the sale to have a favorable impact on the groups' net income of ~$200M in 2025. Also in France, Wendel (MF.FP) completed the acquisition of a controlling stake in Monroe Capital. As part of the initial transaction, Wendel has invested $1.133B to acquire 72% of Monroe Capital's shares together with rights to c.20% of the carried interest generated on past and future funds.
Politics/Macro/World News
Trump to Unveil Country-Based Tariffs April 2 in Rose Garden - Bloomberg
UK shop prices fall less sharply as retailers brace for tax hit - Reuters
Large majority of Europeans support retaliatory tariffs against US, poll finds - The Guardian
US and Denmark to hold first high-level talks since Trump win - FT
Le Pen Election Ban Threatens Fragile Peace in French Politics - Bloomberg
Netherlands Mar Preliminary CPI +3.7% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior +3.8%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin announces TBC to sell its Midas franchise network to Mavis Tire Express Service Corp.; expected to have a favorable impact on the Michelin's net income of ~$200M in 2025
ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy) -- reports FY net income (€74.1M) vs FactSet (€60.9M) [3 est, (€67)-(51.4M)]; updates on financial situation and cash runway
S30.FP (Solutions 30) -- reports FY adjusted net income (€6.0M) vs FactSet (€4.0M)
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- reports FY net income €15.8M vs FactSet €20.8M [1 est]
EXAE.GA (Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange) -- reports FY EBITDA €23.7M vs FactSet €24.8M [5 est, €23.7-26.1M]; raises dividend +21% y/y
SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig) -- sold 196 homes for NOK1.24B in Q1
NOHO.FH (NoHo Partners) -- revises the long-term financial targets of its Finnish business as Better Burger Society separates from the NoHo Partners group
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
Benelux: Onward Medical (ONWD.BB)
UK: Pinewood Technologies Group (PINE.LN), Serica Energy (SQZ.LN), NIOX Group (NIOX.LN)
CMD/events: Bayer (BAYN.GR)
M&A
BELCO.NO (Belships) -- Blue Northern BLK to carry out a compulsory acquisition of all remaining shares in Belships
SHEL.LN (Shell Plc) -- Shell completes sale of interest in Singapore Energy and Chemicals park; deal announced 8-May-24
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin announces TBC to sell its Midas franchise network to Mavis Tire Express Service Corp.; expected to have a favorable impact on the Michelin's net income of ~$200M in 2025
VCTR (Victory Capital Holdings) -- closes transaction with Amundi; conference call at 08:00 ET (14:00 CET)
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- to buy into Icen Risk - Bloomberg, citing statement
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- selects Apollo, KKR and Balbec Capital to bid for portfolio of non-performing mortgages worth €600M - Bloomberg
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- subsidiary Smulders acquires HSM Offshore Energy; terms undisclosed
MF.FP (Wendel) -- completes the acquisition of a controlling stake in Monroe Capital
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- enters into exclusive negotiations to acquire The BVA Family for an undisclosed sum
CNV.FP (Cnova) -- provides information regarding buy-out of minority shareholders, suspension of trading and delisting
ALMA.FH (Alma Media) -- acquires ESG reporting service from Decade of Action Oy; price not disclosed
FFARMS.DC (FirstFarms) -- Constantinsborg A/S withdraws voluntary cash offer to the shareholders of FirstFarms A/S and withdraws proposal for delisting
NOHO.FH (NoHo Partners) -- Better Burger Society separates from NoHo Partners group, with NoHo Partners remaining the largest shareholder
SYAB.GR (Eurofins Scientific) -- completes the acquisition of SYNLAB's clinical diagnostics operations in Spain
CAPMAN.FH (Capman Real Estate fund CapMan Hotels II) -- closes the acquisition of Midstar Fastigheter AB
Hedge funds buying Healthscope debt - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- AstraZeneca's AZD0780 demonstrated significant LDL-C reduction in PURSUIT Phase IIb trial
LONN.SW (Lonza Group) -- Lonza completes its CHF2B share buyback program
UCB.BB (UCB) -- presents key data from Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease research programs at AD/PD 2025
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- SEC filing: NT 10-K
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP)
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- announces new $2.0B multi-currency revolving credit facility; replaces initial and unutilized $1.25B
BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S) -- receives U.S. FDA approval of freeze-dried Smallpox and Mpox vaccine
IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics) -- to present clinical and preclinical data at the AD/PD 2025: 19th International Conference on Alzheimer's & Parkinson's Diseases
Other
SHEL.LN (Shell Plc) -- Shell Eastern Trading completes acquisition of Pavilion Energy
STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics) -- STMicroelectronics, Innoscience sign GaN technology development and manufacturing agreement
PSON.LN (Pearson) -- announces newly expanded role for Chief Technology Officer, Dave Treat, as company further scales AI and tech capabilities
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- to commence already communicated share repurchase program
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- appoints acting EVP CFO Peter Landgren as new CFO
AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings) -- releases statement regarding comments made by Lawrence Stroll in an interview
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- and OGT Solar sign module supply agreement for Italy
ICAD.FP (Icade) -- appoints Bruno Valentin as CFO with effect from 7-Apr; succeeds Christelle de Robillard
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
AJB.LN (AJ Bell) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Numis
IHP.LN (Integrafin Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Numis
Downgrades
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- to neutral from buy at Citi
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- to underperform from market perform at Bernstein
INRN.SW (Interroll Holding) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
DOC.AV (DO & CO) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
HOT.GR (Hochtief) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SBRY.LN (Sainsbury) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty) -- outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
CEC.GR (CECONOMY) -- neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde) -- neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Other Actions
CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group) -- transferred hold at Peel Hunt; prior rating was hold
ALV.GR (Allianz) -- resumed neutral at JPMorgan; prior rating was overweight
Data
Nikkei +0.20% to 35689.45
Hang Seng +0.29% to 23185.56
Shanghai Composite +0.27% to 3344.74
S&P futures (15.5) vs prior close of 5653.3
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0814
$-¥ (0.12) or (0.08%) to 149.84
€-¥ (0.15) or (0.09%) to 162.04
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