Apr 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for a negative start to Friday trade. Several markets including Greater China and Taiwan, offline for public holiday. Nikkei futures down more than 3% while Australia opens down to Aug-2024 low. S&P 500 futures extending losses after US indexes logged worst session since 2020. Australian and New Zealand curves bull steepening following overnight Treasury rally. FX markets quiet following broad dollar selloff (DXY lowest since Oct-2024). Crude extending losses after hitting wo-week low. Gold steady after pulling back from record high. Bitcoin unchanged following 6% drop.
Asian equities staring at another risk-off session. Trump's harsher-than-expected tariffs accelerated selling of risk assets with sell-side firms warning of significant downside impacts on earnings and economic growth, and upside risks to US inflation. Concerns amplified by talk of retaliation with Canada imposing tariffs on US autos, while EU and China also warned of a response. Some hope remains for a tamping down of tensions after Trump said he is open to talks if he receives "phenomenal" offers.
Trump's tariffs fueling stagflation debate with some economists dialing back Fed rate cut expectations given upside inflation risks while others (Goldman Sachs) recently raised their rate cut expectations amid the predicted drag on growth. Futures also now pricing in 3-4 Fed rate cuts in 2025 amid pickup in recession concerns. Markets awaiting more clarity from Fed officials, who continue to push patience amid the uncertainty. Attention now on Fed Chair Powell's remarks later Friday.
US nonfarm payrolls take on added importance amid heightened attention on the growth outlook. Data forecast to show modest step down in March headline employment, and unchanged unemployment rate and average hourly earnings growth. Some economist previews flagged upside risk as labor market continues to recoup weather and strike-driven January weakness. However, some see unemployment rate rising in coming months as labor market reacts to slower growth and recession concerns.
Pre-open Company News:
6135.JP -- Makino Milling Machine to consider holding meetings with Nidec in relation to tender offer
532134.IN -- Bank of Baroda reports provisional global advances as at 31-Mar INR12.310T vs quarter-ago INR11.730T
2695.JP -- Kura Sushi reports March same-store sales (11.0%) y/y
China March stock market trading turnover CNY31.326T vs month-ago CNY32.584T
502355.IN -- Balkrishna Industries assigned hold at Geojit Financial
532149.IN -- Bank of India reports provisional global gross advances as at 31-Mar INR6.652T vs quarter-ago INR6.515T
601985.CH -- China National Nuclear Power reports Q1 cumulative power generation 59.74B kWh, +16.9% y/y
603259.CH -- WuXi AppTec releases ESG report 2024
1996.HK -- Redsun Properties Group further extends RSA deadline to 18-Apr for early fee and 2-May for base fee
697.HK -- Shoucheng Holdings releases 2024 ESG report
732.HK -- Truly International Holdings reports March revenue HK$1.46B, (3.2%) y/y
601198.CH -- Dongxing Securities reports FY net income attributable CNY1.54B vs guidance CNY1.45-1.70B and year-ago CNY819.7M
435.HK -- Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust releases 2023-24 Sustainability Report
On Deck:
China:
Earnings:
Shandong Hi-speed (600350.CH), Shandong Hi-speed (600350.CH), Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.CH)
Japan:
Economic:
08:30 JST: Real Household Income Y/Y; consensus
08:30 JST: Real Household Consumption Expenditure Y/Y; consensus
Earnings:
DISCO Corp. (6146.JP), Adastria (2685.JP), YASKAWA Electric (6506.JP), Ichibanya (7630.JP)
Thailand:
Economic:
07:00 SAST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +1.4%
Philippines:
Economic:
09:00 SST: CPI Y/Y; consensus +2.3%
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 25): +$12.40 or +0.40% to $3134.10
WTI Crude (May 25): ($0.21) or (0.31%) to $66.74
$-¥: (3.19) or (2.14%) to 146.0920
$-KRW: (16.14) or (1.10%) to 1450.6800
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.30% to 0.6319
$-INR: (0.24) or (0.29%) to 85.2829
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.17% to 7.2806
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