Apr 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed sharply lower in reaction to US President Trump's trade tariff announcements. Global risk off on the back of more onerous than expected Trump tariffs and threats of retaliation. Plays into ongoing ramp in stagflation fears, with the pricing piece a major complication for additional Fed easing.
EU vowed a response and China indicated unspecified countermeasures, Korea's acting president urging negotiations with US and Japan keeping its options open. Meanwhile, the UK said it will keeping negotiating for a trade deal but escaped the worst with just baseline tariff. Flight to safety fueling rally in bond markets with yield curves bull flattening. Futures now pricing in next Fed rate cut in June and almost 80 bp of cuts through year-end, up from ~65 bp at end of last week. Tariffs expected to wipe-out growth in Eurozone and UK this year, though impact on inflation and monetary policy less clear in the near-term. Growth/demand concerns attributed to losses in crude, base metals.
From a macro calendar perspective, Swiss CPI missed, which might raise the risk of another SNB rate cut. Final Eurozone composite PMI revised up to seven-month high on services sector reading. UK reading revised lower. March ECB minutes highlighted significant uncertainty around inflation outlook; could unfold in either direction.
In corporate news, Currys (CURY.LN) raised its FY adjusted profit before tax guidance to around £160M, up from £145-155M. Wise Plc (WISE.LN) reported preliminary FY25 underlying income £1.36B and PBT margin of 20% - CMD. Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW) released final FY numbers. AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW) was also out with FY earnings. In pharma highlights, Roche (ROG.SW) presented novel therapeutic and diagnostic advancements in Alzheimer's at AD/PD 2025. In other corporate developments, Puma (PUM.GR) CEO Arne Freundt resigns.
On M&A front, Siemens (SIE.GR) confirmed acquisition of Dotmatics for $5.1B. WPP Group (WPP.LN) announced the acquisition of InfoSum for an undisclosed sum. Assura (AGR.LN) confirmed that it received a revised indicative proposal from PHP regarding a possible share and cash offer for the Company.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Utilities +3.12%, Real Estate+2.26%, Food & Beverage +0.47%, Telecom +0.31%, Health Care (1.21%), Insurance (1.42%), Retail (1.53%), Media (2.00%), Persnl & HHold Goods (2.52%)
Underperformers
Banks (5.40%), Oil & Gas (5.04%), Basic Resources (4.77%), Technology (4.46%), Autos & Parts (3.93%), Travel & Leisure (3.87%), Ind Goods & Svcs (3.86%), Financial Svcs (3.24%), Construct & Mtls (2.99%), Chemicals (2.72%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
OPEC
The eight OPEC+ countries will meet on the 5-May to decide on June production levels - release
EU
EU 'prepared' to retaliate against Trump's 20 percent tariffs - Politico
Global economy will 'massively suffer' from Donald Trump tariffs, Ursula von der Leyen warns - The Guardian
Joint statement on EU-Türkiye High-Level Economic Dialogue - release
UK
FTSE plunges as Starmer admits Trump tariffs will hurt Britain - The Telegraph
Northern Ireland fears becoming 'collateral damage' in Trump's trade war - FT
UK Government launches next stage in process asking UK businesses to comment on options to shape UK's potential response to US tariffs - release
France
France's Macron to convene sectors hit by U.S. tariffs - French presidency - Reuters
Germany
Investment mood rises in Germany, according to survey - Handelsblatt
Denmark
Danish PM pledges to support Greenland against Trump pressure - Reuters
Portugal
Portuguese Prime Minister's Coalition Leads in Poll, RTP Reports - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.7% CURY.LN (Currys £1.03, +0.14) -- raises FY guidance
+8.8% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK48.96, +3.96) -- raises FY guidance
+6.4% SNG.LN (Synairgen £0.01, -0.00) -- US tariff exception for pharmaceuticals
+5.4% DBV.FP (DBV Technologies €1.32, +0.07) -- US tariff exception for pharmaceuticals
+4.1% CATE.SS (Catena SEK447.00, +17.50) -- acquisition
+4.0% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical SEK2.08, +0.08) -- partner Solasia intends to increase investments in upcoming trials with arfolitixorin
+3.1% CAST.SS (Castellum AB SEK113.90, +3.40) -- and Scandic make joint investment in well-known Jönköping city district
+2.3% LINK.NO (LINK Mobility Group Holding NOK22.05, +0.50) -- initiated buy at Nordea
+2.3% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.03, -0.00) -- secures $18M exclusive rights to the Large Waste Project
+1.9% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.55, +0.01) -- initiates collaboration with Entos Pharmaceuticals to test novel platform for circVec circular RNA delivery
+1.6% AGR.LN (Assura £0.47, +0.01) -- confirms that it received a revised indicative proposal from PHP regarding a possible share and cash offer for the Company
+1.4% BWO.NO (BW Offshore NOK29.15, +0.40) -- to receive ~$36M in arbitration settlement
+1.3% MAS.NO (Måsøval NOK23.80, +0.30) -- Q1 harvest
+0.5% AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E. €223.20, +1.20) -- UK government grants development consent for London Luton airport expansion
Notable Decliners
-13.4% SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling NOK6.23, -0.96) -- notice of contract termination for the Shelf Drilling Winner from TotalEnergies EP Denmark
-9.5% NA9.GR (Nagarro €69.10, -7.25) -- ShadowFall is short Nagarro -- Die Zeit
-8.8% COA.LN (Coats Group £0.70, -0.07) -- intends to fully exit from Performance Materials division's US Yarns business based in Kings Mountain, North Carolina
-1.7% PPC.GA (Public Power Corp. €0.00, -0.24) -- presents its €5.75B strategic investment roadmap to convert former lignite sites in Western Macedonia into a green energy and technology hub
US tariff impact:
-17.1% LOGN.SW (Logitech International CHF62.58, -12.88)
-13.0% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £3.68, -0.55)
-11.4% ADS.GR (Adidas €195.85, -25.20)
-11.3% PUM.GR (Puma €20.21, -2.57)
-10.7% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK949.00, -113.50) -- BofA downgrade
-9.5% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK10,730.00, -1,125.00) -- acquisition of Panama Canal Railway Company from CPKC and Lanco Group/Mi-Jack
-9.4% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £6.98, -0.73)
-8.9% APAM.NA (Aperam €27.40, -2.68) -- Q1 update
-8.9% BARC.LN (Barclays £2.70, -0.27)
-8.8% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF6.67, -0.64)
-8.5% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £0.65, -0.06)
-8.4% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF24.46, -2.26)
-8.3% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £8.09, -0.73)
-8.0% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF186.10, -16.30)
-7.9% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €4.56, -0.39) -- completes buyback
-7.7% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK98.30, -8.16)
-7.4% SZG.GR (Salzgitter €23.12, -1.86)
-7.1% DOCS.LN (Dr. Martens £0.49, -0.04)
ANTO.LN (Antofagasta £15.65, -1.16)-- initiated buy at Berenberg; SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers €46.75, -3.35); VOLV.B.SS (Volvo SEK255.10, -18.20) ; UCG.IM (UniCredit €48.68, -3.43); EL.FP (EssilorLuxottica €249.70, -17.60); KER.FP (Kering €179.18, -12.72); PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,160.50, -82.00); DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €20.89, -1.46); UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF137.80, -9.55); CFR.SW (Richemont CHF144.40, -9.70);-6.3% WUC.GR (Lithium Americas (Argentina) €2.40, -0.16); MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €542.60, -32.30); ENR.GR (Siemens Energy €53.14, -3.14); DNORD.DC (D/S Norden DKK167.20, -9.70); LR.FP (Legrand €93.34, -5.46)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: Sodexo (SW.FP), BKS Bank (BKS.AV)
Data:
Economics:
Services PMI Mar
Sweden 49.4 vs consensus 52.0 and prior revised 50.5 from 50.8
Spain 54.7 vs consensus 55.5 and prior 56.2
UK 52.5 vs preliminary 53.2
Eurozone 51.0 vs preliminary 50.4
Germany 50.9 vs preliminary 50.2
France 47.9 vs preliminary 46.6
Italy 52.0 vs consensus 52.5 and prior 53.0
Eurozone Feb PPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior revised +1.7% from +1.8%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and and prior revised +0.7% from +0.8%
Switzerland Mar CPI +0.3% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.3%; 0.0% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 25): ($5.45) or (7.60%) to $66.26
€-$ +0.0212 or +1.95% to 1.1067
£-$ +0.0114 or +0.88% to 1.3124
€-£ +0.0087 to 0.8431
S&P 500 (4.03%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.52%
DAX: +9.00%
CAC: +2.85%
MIB: +8.46%
Stoxx 600: +3.00%
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