Apr 10 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended sharply higher after Trump's decision to pause higher reciprocal tariff rates on most countries except China, lifting sentiment in an oversold market. Financials, banks and industrials lead cyclical-driven rally; food sector profit warnings in focus. Follows downbeat close on Wednesday.
The tariff pause has seen reduction in central bank rate cut expectations in Europe in line with dialing back in Fed rate cut pricing. While it is unlikely to change the ECB's policy decision next week, the market has reduced the number of cuts to ~70 bps by year-end, which is effectively the removal of at least one cut. Bank of France chief Villeroy welcomed Trump's tariff pause and Spanish PMI said it opens door to bargaining. Meanwhile, EU agrees on 90 day pause in countermeasures against US. Reiterated all options remain on the table.
On the macro data front, another relatively lowkey data schedule in Europe. Latest UK RICS housing survey warned market risks being derailed by trade war with buyer demand weakening. Italy Feb Industrial Production (0.9%) m/m vs consensus (1.0%) and prior revised +2.5% from +3.2% while Netherlands Feb Manufacturing Production +1.2% m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior revised +0.9% from +1.0%. Mar CPI for Norway and Denmark below consensus while Greece a touch firmer.
In corporate news, Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) reported prelim Q1 numbers; Givaudan (GIVN.SW) reported better-than-expected Q1 sales; DocMorris (DOCM.SW) also out with better-than-expected Q1 external revenue and CHF 200M capital increase. Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW) H1 recurring net income and EBIT a miss with group also lowering its annual volume guidance citing unprecedented cocoa bean price volatility. Out of Benelux, Fagron (FAGR.BB) reports Q1 revenue €238.7M vs FactSet €227.7M and reiterates FY guidance. In the UK, Tesco (TSCO.LN) is expected to update investors with latest figures. In the UK, Tesco (TSCO.LN) shares lower on downbeat FY26 guide despite solid results for the year ending Feb-25.
Amidst light M&A headlines, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) reportedly is considering exit options for materials trading business. Anglo American (AAL.LN) said it continues to work with Peabody (BTU) towards satisfying remaining customary conditions required to complete sale of steelmaking coal business to Peabody.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Mar final CPI, UK Feb industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance, construction output, Mar monthly GDP tracker - NIESR, Spain Mar final CPI, and Switzerland Mar consumer confidence - SECO.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +5.37%, Banks +5.15%, Ind Goods & Svcs +4.96%, Technology +4.54%, Construct & Mtls +4.26%, Travel & Leisure +4.24%, Insurance +4.20%, Real Estate +3.94%, Basic Resources +3.79%
Underperformers:
Food & Beverage +1.30%, Telecom +2.08%, Oil & Gas +2.54%, Health Care +2.59%, Autos & Parts +2.62%, Utilities +2.66%, Chemicals +3.02%, Persnl & HHold Goods +3.22%, Retail +3.48%, Media +3.63%
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
UK:
Trump's tariffs war set to hit UK growth, warns Bank of England -- Politico
UK statistics agency plans to replace faulty jobs data in 2026 -- FT
Reform UK may overtake Welsh Labour in 2026 Senedd vote, poll suggests -- Guardian
Why the King and Queen's visit to Italy is one of the UK's most important power plays -- Sky
Germany:
Germany's CSU backs coalition deal as economic gloom ups pressure for new government -- Reuters
Germany to Maintain Controls at All Internal Borders, New Coalition agreement Says -- Schengen
Germany's economy is expected to stagnate at best this year -- Independent
German Economics Institutes cut 2025 GDP forecast to +0.1% vs prior estimate +0.8%; leaves 2026 GDP forecast unchanged at +1.3% -- release -- DIW
France:
Macron accused of giving Hamas 'prize for terrorism' -- Telegraph
Italy:
Italy steps up calls to pause EU green deal for competitiveness -- Montel
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+76.0% VRCI.LN (Verici Dx £0.02, +0.01) -- receives medicare coverage for Tutivia
+14.5% PLEJD.SS (Plejd AB SEK535.00, +68.00) -- Q1 earnings
+10.3% GSP.IM (Gas Plus €3.04, +0.28) -- FY earnings
+9.1% MER.LN (Mears Group £3.93, +0.33) -- FY earnings; Peel Hunt upgrade
+8.8% ANOD.B.SS (Addnode Group SEK93.70, +7.60) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+8.7% HEALTH.FH (Nightingale Health €2.80, +0.23) -- progress in its laboratory implementation in US is as planned; laboratory to open in Summer 2025
+8.3% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.30, +0.02) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+8.3% COTN.SW (COMET Holding CHF208.80, +15.60) -- Q1 sales
+7.6% ALMDG.FP (MGI Digital Graphic Technology €13.00, +0.91) -- FY earnings
+7.6% HOFI.SS (Hoist Finance SEK72.70, +5.15) -- SEB upgrade
+7.6% BAMI.IM (Banco BPM €8.67, +0.61) -- final results of the offer reaching 89.949% of Anima share capital
+7.5% FBK.IM (FinecoBank €16.54, +1.14) -- initiated buy at BofA
+7.3% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF2.49, +0.16) -- FY earnings
+7.2% AAL.LN (Anglo American £19.02, +1.26) -- continues to work with Peabody (BTU) towards satisfying remaining customary conditions
+7.0% SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain €82.70, +5.38) -- Berenberg upgrade
+6.5% XFAB.FP (X-FAB Silicon Foundries €3.71, +0.23) -- and IQE sign joint development agreement for GaN Power
+6.3% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.41, +0.03) -- FY earnings; CFO to step down
+6.1% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £0.72, +0.04) -- commences £100M share buyback
+5.7% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK273.10, +14.40) -- initiated buy at Clarksons Secruties; Ørsted implores Europe to do more to support wind energy sector; says new tariffs will have meaningful impact on its US projects - FT, citing CEO
+5.3% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €36.63, +1.81) -- completes €872M share buyback program
+5.2% ABBN.SW (ABB Limited CHF41.28, +2.04) -- Carnegie Securitie upgrade
+5.0% IMP.A.SS (Implantica SEK28.55, +1.35) -- study publication
+4.7% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF20.50, +0.87) -- Q1 revenue
+4.5% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €141.24, +5.98) -- March gross orders
+4.4% FAGR.BB (Fagron €19.36, +0.82) -- Q1 revenue
+3.9% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £1.56, +0.06) -- UK government grants development consent for the Viking CCS pipeline
+3.5% THULE.SS (Thule Group SEK248.80, +8.20) -- Pareto upgrade
Notable Decliners
-33.8% TET.LN (Treatt £2.13, -1.09) -- prelim H1 earnings; £5M share buyback program
-21.5% BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut CHF848.50, -227.00) -- H1 earnings
-9.9% TTG.LN (TT Electronics £0.75, -0.08) -- FY earnings; business update; CEO to step down
-8.4% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.58, -0.05) -- receives request from Atlas Special Opportunities for the conversion of NOK1.5M (nominal value) of convertible bonds
-8.2% EPR.NO (Europris NOK74.30, -6.70) -- Q1 earnings
-4.9% TSCO.LN (Tesco plc £3.21, -0.16) -- FY earnings; £1.45B share buyback
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Rosenbauer International (ROS.AV)
France: Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Carbios (ALCRB.FP)
Nordics: Tryg (TRYG.DC), Carasent (CARA.SS), Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Mar CPI
Denmark +1.5% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and prior +2.0%
Norway +2.6% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +3.6%
Greece +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and prior +2.5%
Netherlands Feb Manufacturing Production +1.2% m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior revised +0.9% from +1.0%
Feb Industrial Production
Sweden (0.7%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (2.1%)
Italy (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (1.9%) and prior revised (0.8%) from (0.6%)
Greece (0.1%) y/y vs consensus +3.8% and prior revised +2.7% from +2.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-May): ($2.51) or (4.03%) to $59.84
€-$ +0.0278 or +2.54% to 1.1229
£-$ +0.0151 or +1.18% to 1.2975
€-£ +0.0098 to 0.8637
S&P 500 (3.94%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (3.18%)
DAX: +3.28%
CAC: (3.45%)
MIB: +0.27%
Stoxx 600: (4.01%)
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE