Apr 14 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher this morning. Note European markets last week experienced extreme volatility sparked by US tariff developments. The Stoxx 600, still down (10.6%) since "Liberation Day," rebounded from a 13-month low, down just (1.9%) on the week, driven by gains in banks and retail.
Asian equites advancing Monday as market react to electronics tariff exemption news. Benchmarks across Greater China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Australia all trading higher. S&P 500 futures extending gains after index capped best week since Nov-2023.
Eventful weekend of trade developments with focus shifting to electronics after Commerce Secretary Lutnick said they would receive temporary exemption from 10% baseline tariff and 125% China tariffs. Trump warned electronics tariffs still in the pipeline, flagging national security probe into whole electronics supply chain. Trump previously threatened tariffs on semiconductors and Lutnick estimated they could be in place in 1-2 months. White House also said chips would be subject to different tariff rate. Trump to provide update on chip tariffs Monday.
US electronics tariff exemption a positive early driver. Multiple press reports highlighted AAPL and NVDA as winners from the exemption, with secondary benefits for Asian semiconductor companies. Some hope reprieve marks small de-escalatory step in US-China trade war after Beijing welcomed development.
In notable Asia macro data, China export growth accelerated by more than expected, reflecting continued purchase front-loading ahead of Trump's tariffs. However, imports contracted further.
This week sees ECB interest rate decision, with economists expecting a 25bps cut as President Lagarde addresses trade shock uncertainties. ECB's bank lending survey, due Tuesday, will also draw attention. Also out this week are Germany Apr ZEW survey, UK Apr employment data and further Mar CPIs from across the region, as well as earnings/updates from heavyweights including ABB (ABBN.SW), ASML (ASML.NA), Sainsbury (SBRY.LN), Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), L'Oreal (OR.FP) and LVMH (MC.FP).
Easter shortened week sees a handful of Scandinavian markets closed on Thur, with the vast majority of the region's markets closed on Fri.
European macro data releases today: Finland Mar CPI comes in at +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior +0.5% . Switzerland Mar PPI also due.
In the UK, Rightmove notes average price for houses and apartments advertised between March 9 and April 5 was a record £377,182, reflecting a 1.4% increase from the previous month - a bigger-than-usual rise for the time of year, Rightmove said. Asking prices for housing on sale in Britain this month are 1.3% higher than a year earlier, despite the end of a tax break, pushing the average price above a previous record set in May 2024. (Reuters)
Today sees OPEC release latest Monthly Report. In politics, EU's Šefčovič in Washington DC for trade tariff talks with U.S. officials and Portugal general election tv debates on RTP1 at 21:00CET (Luís Montenegro (AD) x Rui Rocha (IL)) and on SIC Notícias at 22:00 (Mariana Mortágua (BE) x Rui Tavares (Livre)). 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue whilst EU's Kallas chairs Foreign Affairs Council
Among corporate highlights, Ageas (AGS.BB) to acquire digital personal lines insurer esure 1 from Bain Capital for £1.295B (€1.510B); transaction expected to generate uplift in RoE of more than 1pp; (AXA (CS.FP) and BNP Paribas Cardif sign Share Purchase agreement for Investment Managers (IM); Salzgitter (SZG.GR) ends discussions with consortium of GP Günter Papenburg AG and TSR Recycling GmbH & Co. KG regarding a potential takeover offer; Fortum (FORTUM.FH) considering acquiring Uniper's (UN01.GR) Swedish assets, report the FT; Greenyard (GREEN.BB) confirms Deprez family intends to launch a voluntary and conditional takeover bid in cash on all shares in at €7.40 per share
Politics/Macro/World News
UK retail bosses raise fears of Chinese 'dumping' due to Trump tariffs - FT
Bank of England's Greene says dollar drop adds to tariff inflation puzzle -- Reuters
SNB Seen Resisting Urge to Go Negative in Fight Over Franc Gains -- Bloomberg
Trump says he will provide more info on chips tariffs on Monday -- Reuters
France Needs €40 Billion in Savings to Reach 2026 Deficit Target -- Bloomberg
S&P Global Ratings raises long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Italy to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' -- link
Italy's Giorgetti Says No Extra Borrowing Despite Lower Growth -- Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- reports provisional Q1 total electricity production 35,515 GWh, (13.3%) y/y
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports March sales from continuing operations €1.05B, +3.9% in comparable terms
KOF.FP (Kaufman & Broad) -- reports Q1 net income €11.6M vs year-ago €11.0M
C3RY.GR (Cherry) -- announces recognition of asset impairment for 2024; updates adjusted EBITDA margin for FY24
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Burkhalter Holding (BRKN.SW)
France: Robertet (RBT.FP)
Nordics: TF Bank (TFBANK.SS)
Trading Update:
Southern Europe: Galp Energia SGPS (GALP.PL)
UK: Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN)
CMD/events: Technoprobe (TPRO.IM)
M&A
CS.FP (AXA) -- and BNP Paribas Cardif sign Share Purchase agreement for Investment Managers (IM)
AGS.BB (Ageas) -- to acquire digital personal lines insurer esure 1 from Bain Capital for £1.295B (€1.510B); transaction expected to generate uplift in RoE of more than 1pp (
SZG.GR (Salzgitter) -- ends discussions with consortium of GP Günter Papenburg AG and TSR Recycling GmbH & Co. KG regarding a potential takeover offer; program P28 now targets €500M in savings
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- sells its ~99.3% stake in Telefónica del Perú S.A.A to Integra Tec International Inc. for ~ €900K
BAM (Brookfield Asset Management) -- Scape wins exclusivity in bid for Brookfield's Aveo - Australian Financial Review, citing sources
VK.FP (Vallourec) -- in exclusive negotiations to sell Serimax for an enterprise value of €79M, including earn-out
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- SoftwareONE shareholders approve all proposals in connection with the offer to acquire Crayon
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- CVC has looked at making offer for Golub Capital - FT
HTG.LN (Hunting) -- Oasis Management wants Hunting to spend $145M on investors or acquisitions - Sunday Times
LMP.LN (LondonMetric Property) -- confirms submission of non-bidning proposal to acquire Urban Logistics REIT
UN0.GR (Uniper) -- Fortum considering acquiring Uniper's Swedish assets - FT
GREEN.BB (Greenyard) -- confirms Deprez family intends to launch a voluntary and conditional takeover bid in cash on all shares in at €7.40 per share
COXG.SM (Cox ABG Group) -- will attend to expressions of interest in the share exchange received from any shareholder of Cox Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
ELLAKTOR.GA (Ellaktor) -- agrees to divest real estate properties to Dimand Real Estate Development; agreed value of the properties is €85.6M
Alphabet, Nvidia among parties investing in Safe Superintelligence; terms unreported - Reuters, citing source familiar with the matter
Healthcare
AMGN (Amgen) -- Sandoz files antitrust suit against Amgen regarding US patient access to Erelzi
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche's Columvi gets EU approval as the first bispecific antibody for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after initial therapy
UCB.BB (UCB) -- announces findings from real-world evidence studies of romosozumab
Other
NEX.FP (Nexans) -- launches share buyback program for a maximum of 750K shares
B2W.GR (Borr Drilling) -- files automatic mixed shelf of indeterminate amount - F-3ASR
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $149.1M, +98.2% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SY1.GR (Symrise) -- to buy from neutral at Citi
Downgrades
BN.FP (Danone) -- to neutral from buy at Citi
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Data
Nikkei +1.67% to 34146.77
Hang Seng +1.85% to 21300.81
Shanghai Composite +0.63% to 3258.66
S&P futures +57.0 vs prior close of 5391.3
€-$ +0.0066 or +0.58% to 1.1386
$-¥ (1.20) or (0.84%) to 142.71
€-¥ (0.40) or (0.25%) to 162.49
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