Apr 23 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended higher with pan-European indices closing just off best levels. Germany +3.1%, followed by Denmark +2.9% and Austria +2.4% led outperformers whilst Portugal (0.0%) was the negative outlier.
Global risk assets boosted by comments from President Trump. Said after the close on Tuesday that he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell and blamed the press for running away with things. However, did reiterate he would like the Fed to be more active on rate cuts. Trump also signaled tariffs on China will come down substantially if the two sides reach an agreement (though they won't go to zero). Added he would be "very nice" in talks with Beijing and no reason to employ hardball tactics.
From a macroeconomic perspective in Europe, PMIs readings dominated. Eurozone composite PMI recorded a four-month low at 50.1 vs consensus 50.3 and prior 50.9. Slowdown in the services sector weighed on broader activity despite further signs that weakness in manufacturing was bottoming out. Breakdown showed manufacturing PMI at a 27-month high of 48.0 vs consensus 47.6 and prior 48.3. Services sector PMI hit a five-month low of 49.7 vs 50.4 forecast and prior 51.0. Overall, reading signaled a broadly stable picture for the Eurozone economy, but activity was held back by a faster reduction in new orders and waning confidence on the year-ahead outlook. UK composite PMI recorded a 29-month low in April at 48.2 vs consensus 50.4 and prior 51.5, which is consistent with a decline in quarterly growth of 0.3%. Breakdown showed key service sector dropping sharply to a 27-month low of 48.9 vs consensus 51.5 and prior 52.5, while manufacturing at 32-month low of 44.0 vs 44.0 forecast and prior 44.9. It was the first decline in private sector output in one-and-a-half years. Further out of the UK, March borrowing numbers came in higher than expected. On Tuesday's IMF's economic update saw cut in Eurozone and UK growth outlook. UK saw the biggest revised but is still expected to be the fastest growing G7 economy in 2025.
A busy day for earnings saw notable Dutch names such as Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA), Randstad (RAND.NA), Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) and Royal Vopak (VPK.NA) issuing Q1 updates. In France, Eiffage (FGR.FP), Eurofins Scientific (ERF.FP) and Danone (BN.FP) reported Q1 revenue. In DACHs, Temenos (TEMN.SW) and SAP (SAP.GR) reported Q1 earnings, with the latter results viewed as solid overall, given the current macro conditions. Out of the Nordics, Volvo (VOLV.B.SS), Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS), Boliden (BOL.NO), Assa Abloy (ASSA.N.SS) and Valmet (VALMT.FH) released their latest Q1 updates. In the UK, Reckitt Benckiser (RKT.LN), Croda International (CRDA.LN) and Babcock International Group (BAB.LN) updated investors with their latest numbers.
On M&A front, THG Plc (THG.LN) confirmed it received and rejected wholly unsolicited and largely unfunded proposal from Selkirk to acquire Myprotein. In other developments, Entain (ENT.LN) is reportedly seeking new chairman, Sky News reported.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +3.90%, Banks +3.69%, Basic Resources +3.50%, Travel & Leisure +2.47%, Ind Goods & Svcs +2.06%, Autos & Parts +1.96%, Construct & Mtls +1.88%, Health Care +1.82%
Underperformers
Utilities (1.66%), Real Estate(0.67%), Food & Beverage +0.16%, Telecom +0.23%, Oil & Gas +0.29%, Insurance +0.49%, Media +0.85%, Retail +0.90%, Chemicals +1.19%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.21%, Financial Svcs +1.60%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Central Banks:
OPEC:
OPEC+ to consider another accelerated oil output increase for June, sources say (Reuters)
Germany:
France:
France's Macron floats fresh snap election (Bloomberg)
UK:
UK Chancellor Reeves to appeal for US deal at Bessent meeting (Bloomberg)
Reeves said tariffs would have a profound impact on the UK economy (Politico)
UK manufacturing groups warn on job cuts without a trade deal (Guardian)
UK employer pay rises hold at 3% (Reuters)
UK borrowing jumps in March due to inflation-linked spending increases (ONS)
Geopolitics:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+30.3% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK10.50, +2.52) -- FDA approval
+17.2% HMS.SS (HMS Networks SEK414.40, +60.80) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK2.29 vs FactSet SEK2.13 [5 est, SEK1.84-2.71]
+12.0% ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific €55.34, +5.91) -- sales
+11.0% VALMT.FH (Valmet €25.66, +2.55) -- reports Q1 Adj. EPS €0.41 vs consensus €0.37; confirms FY guidance
+10.2% SAP.GR (SAP €241.60, +22.25) -- reports Q1 non-IFRS EPS €1.44 vs FactSet €1.31 [21 est, €1.17-1.63]
+9.7% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners NOK77.97, +6.90) -- DnB Markets, Pareto upgrades
+8.2% RAND.NA (Randstad €36.00, +2.71) -- reports Q1 Underlying EPS €0.59 vs consensus €0.54
+8.1% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £32.50, +2.45) -- recommends div payment
+7.9% AQ.SS (AQ Group SEK149.50, +10.90) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK1.81 vs FactSet SEK1.81 [2 est, SEK1.80-1.81]
+7.8% OPM.FP (OPmobility €9.38, +0.68) -- reports Q1 revenue €2.69B vs FactSet €2.62B [2 est, €2.62-2.62B]
+7.7% CRDA.LN (Croda International £29.40, +2.11) -- trading update
+7.4% COOR.SS (Coor Service Management Holding SEK37.60, +2.58) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK0.50 vs FactSet SEK0.96 [2 est, SEK0.58-1.33]
+6.9% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group NOK78.60, +5.05) -- announces term sheet for all-stock merger with CMB.TECH (CMBT.BB)
+6.8% AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel €55.54, +3.52) -- reports Q1 EPS from total ops €0.63 vs consensus €0.73; keeps FY25 adj EBITDA guidance unchanged
+6.7% XLS.SW (Xlife Sciences CHF25.40, +1.60) -- VERAXA Biotech to combine with Voyager Acquisition, list on Nasdaq
+6.6% PRS.SM (Promotora de Informaciones €0.00, +0.03) -- Prisa shareholders in talks with investors including Czech Kretinsky to launch a takeover bid for the group - El Economista
+6.6% UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding CHF75.80, +4.70) -- reports Q1 EBIT (CHF3.6M) ex-items vs FactSet (CHF3.5M) [1 est]
+6.1% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK530.00, +30.60) -- updates on merger with Wilsgård AS and resolution to increase the share capital
+5.3% FCH.LN (Funding Circle Holdings £1.09, +0.05) -- new share buyback program
+5.2% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF22.02, +1.08) -- launches r.Potential
+4.7% PRX.NA (Prosus €40.14, +1.81) -- Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) recommended offer by Prosus of €20.30 per share is expected to launch in Q2 2025
+4.7% BAB.LN (Babcock International Group £7.86, +0.35) -- FY25 Trading Update: revenue £4.83B vs FactSet £4.87B [9 est, £4.83-4.91B]
+4.6% NSKOG.NO (Norske Skog NOK20.00, +0.88) -- reports Q1 EPS (cont ops) NOK5.14 vs year-ago (NOK2.82)
Notable Decliners
-18.7% SYS1.LN (System1 Group £4.35, -1.00) -- FY Trading Update: revenue £37.4M vs FactSet £38.0M [2 est, £38.0-38M]
-11.6% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF1.64, -0.21) -- introduces short-time work at Thalheim site from 1-May to address production bottlenecks
-11.0% HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining £2.75, -0.33) -- Production Report Q1: Silver production (koz) 2,177 vs year-ago 2,427
-10.0% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK473.00, -52.80) -- reports Q1 EPS SEK2.09 vs FactSet SEK2.89 [3 est, SEK2.79-2.97]
-9.4% SUP.LN (Supreme £1.54, -0.16) -- earnings
-7.5% TEMN.SW (Temenos CHF57.80, -4.65) -- reports Q1 non-IFRS EPS $0.81 vs consensus $0.77; announces CHF250M buyback, guides Q2 and reconfirms FY25 and FY28 guidance
-6.3% PRTC.LN (PureTech Health £1.26, -0.08) -- trial results
-6.2% RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser £46.62, -3.06) -- reports Q1 sales £3.68B vs consensus £3.69B; LFL sales +1.1% vs consensus +1.4%
-6.2% IOM.LN (iomart Group £0.24, -0.02) -- prelim earnings
-5.0% FRES.LN (Fresnillo £9.91, -0.52) -- reports Q1 prodn - Total Silver (attrib incl Silverstream) (moz) 12.4 vs consensus 12.8 - guidance unchanged
-4.8% VPK.NA (Royal Vopak €36.38, -1.84) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.84 ex-items vs year-ago €0.85; FY 2025 outlook confirmed
-1.9% ENRO.SS (Eniro Group SEK0.42, -0.01) -- earnings; no div be resolved at AGM
-1.5% ESSITY.B.SS (Essity SEK0.00, -4.40) -- to initiate new share buyback program of SEK 3B
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Royal KPN (KPN.NA)
Denmark: Tivoli (TIV.DC)
Finland: Nokia (NOKIA.FH), UPM-Kymmene (UPM.FH), Metso Outotec (METSO.FH), Konecranes (KCR.FH), Huhtamaki (HUH1V.FH), Qt Group (QTCOM.FH), Vaisala (VAIAS.FH), Fiskars (FSKRS.FH), Scanfil (SCANFL.FH), Atria (ATRAV.FH), Talenom (TNOM.FH)
France: Sanofi (SAN.FP), BNP Paribas (BNP.FP), Orange (ORA.FP), Dassault Systemes (DSY.FP), STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP), X-FAB Silicon Foundries (XFAB.FP), Lectra (LSS.FP), Groupe Guillin (ALGIL.FP), Genfit (GNFT.FP)
Germany: Delivery Hero (DHER.GR), Vossloh (VOS.GR), Hawesko Holding (HAW.GR), Deutsche Rohstoff (DR0.GR)
Norway: AutoStore Holdings (AUTO.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO)
Southern Europe: Eni (ENI.IM), Sogefi (SGF.IM), Bankinter (BKT.SM), Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.SM)
Sweden: Essity (ESSITY.B.SS), Telia Co. (TELIA.SS), Trelleborg (TREL.B.SS), AAK (AAK.SS), Beijer Ref (BEIJ.B.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Axfood (AXFO.SS), Fortnox (FNOX.SS), Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), Vitrolife (VITR.SS), BONESUPPORT HOLDING (BONEX.SS), AFRY(AFRY.SS), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Paradox Interactive (PDX.SS), Alimak Group (ALIG.SS), FastPartner (FPAR.A.SS), New Wave Group (NEWA.B.SS), Inwido (INWI.SS), Dometic Group (DOM.SS), Jm (JM.SS), Mips (MIPS.SS), Xvivo Perfusion (XVIVO.SS), Norion Bank (NORION.SS), Biotage (BIOT.SS), Swedencare (SECARE.SS), Note (NOTE.SS), Lime Technologies (LIME.SS), Green Landscaping Group (GREEN.SS), Viaplay Group (VPLAY.B.SS), Cint Group (CINT.SS), PowerCell Sweden (PCELL.SS), Enea (ENEA.SS), Solid Forsakrings (SFAB.SS), Pricer (PRIC.B.SS), Prevas (PREV.B.SS), Nelly Group (NELLY.SS), Bactiguard Holding (BACTI.B.SS), Studsvik (SVIK.SS)
Switzerland: Kuhne + Nagel International (KNIN.SW), Inficon Holding (IFCN.SW)
UK: ASOS (ASC.LN), Tracsis (TRCS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Manufacturing PMI Apr flash
UK 44.0 vs consensus 44.0 and prior 44.9
Eurozone 48.7 vs consensus 47.4 and prior 48.6
Germany 48.0 vs consensus 47.6 and prior 48.3
France 48.2 vs consensus 47.9 and prior 48.5
Services PMI Apr flash
UK 48.9 vs consensus 51.5 and prior 52.5
Eurozone 49.7 vs consensus 50.4 and prior 51.0
Germany 48.8 vs consensus 50.2 and prior 50.9
France 46.8 vs consensus 47.7 and prior 47.9
Eurozone
Feb Trade Balance €24.0B vs consensus €15.1B and prior €1.0B
Feb Construction Output +0.2% y/y vs consensus +0.7% and prior revised +0.1% from 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 25): ($1.74) or (2.73%) to $61.93
€-$ (0.0052) or (0.46%) to 1.1369
£-$ (0.0057) or (0.43%) to 1.3274
€-£ (0.0004) to 0.8564
S&P 500 +2.10%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.81%
DAX: +10.16%
CAC: +1.43%
MIB: +6.37% Stoxx 600: +1.74%
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