Apr 29 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed this morning. Asia equities trading mostly higher Tuesday. Moderate gains led by Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong with mainland China paring losses. Japan closed for a public holiday. US equity futures little changed. US markets finished mostly higher on Monday. Bonds mixed. US 10-year yield flat at 4.21%. Dollar firmer. Oil down. Gold lower. Industrial metals weaker.
Market sentiment benefiting somewhat from US signaling relief on auto tariffs. Attention turning to the ramp in corporate earnings combined with high-profile economic data. Press noted aggregate S&P 500 Q1 earnings set to log solid growth, though guidance from latest results have skewed negative with some omissions due to heightened uncertainties. Focus on impact from tariffs. Latest consensus poll showed global growth forecasts revised down with most economists seeing a high risk of recession. On trade talks, recent optimism from prospects for de-escalation in trade tensions constrained by apparent lack of progress in US-China negotiations. Russia rejected US proposal for Ukraine peace deal because it does not grant international recognition to Russian-seized territory.
On the agenda for today; in central banks, ECB's Cipollone speech at 9:00CET at joint BIS, BOE, ECB and IMF Spillover Conf 2025 (through Wed) whilst ECB's Donnery speech at 9:40CET at annual Conf on Banking Supervision organised by Handelsblatt. BOE's Ramsden speech at 10:40BST at Innovate Finance Global Summit. Latvia central bank's Kazāks interview on LTV "Rīta panorāmai". Austria central bank's Holzmann speech at 16:00CET at Forum on CESEE. SNB's Martin speech at 18:30CET at event hosted by International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies on bank's new extended liquidity facility. On the political front, Germany's SPD is set to vote on whether to back a coalition with Merz's Christian Democrats.
In macro releases, Germany May consumer confidence - GfK, Spain Q1 preliminary GDP and Apr preliminary CPI, Italy Apr business/consumer confidence due as well as Eurozone Apr economic sentiment, Mar M3 money supply. Kantar's grocery market share figures and update on inflation for the 12 weeks ending 20 April 2025 will be released at 8:00 BST.
Amidst a busy morning for earnings; out of DACHs, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) reports Q1 net income €1.78B vs consensus €1.64B. Novartis (NOVN.SW) reports Q1 Core EPS $2.28 vs consensus $2.13 and raises FY guidance. HelloFresh (HFG.GR) reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €58.1M vs consensus €42.9M and reconfirms FY25 outlook. Adidas (ADS.GR) reports Q1 net income €436M vs FactSet €383.5M [8 est, €360.8-430.1M. Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR) reports Q1 EPS (€0.74) vs StreetAccount (€0.49); FY25 outlook unchanged. In the UK, HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN) reports Q1 EPS $0.39 ex-items vs FactSet $0.33 [1 est]; intends to initiate buyback of up to $3B
In Sweden, SSAB (SSAB.B.SS) reports Q1 EPS SEK1.13 vs StreetAccount SEK0.84. Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS) reports Q1 EPS SEK0.40 vs FactSet SEK0.77 [7 est, SEK0.43-1.17]. Modern Times Group MTG (MTG.B.SS) reports Q1 EPS SEK0.55 vs FactSet SEK2.44.
Politics/Macro/World News
Trade and tariffs:
Central Banks:
Power begins to return after huge outage hits Spain and Portugal (Reuters )
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DBK.GR Deutsche Bank reports Q1 net income €1.78B vs consensus €1.64B
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- Q1 Core EPS $2.28 vs consensus $2.13; raises FY guidance
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- Q1 EPS (€0.74) vs StreetAccount (€0.49); FY25 outlook unchanged
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- Q1 revenue €9.33B vs consensus €9.47B; Organic growth +7.4% vs consensus +8.9%; reaffirms 2025 financial guidance
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- Q1 EPS $0.39 ex-items vs FactSet $0.33 [1 est]; intends to initiate buyback of up to $3B
CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- Q1 revenue €5.55B vs StreetAccount €5.53B; confirms FY guidance
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- Q1 adjusted EBITDA €58.1M vs consensus €42.9M; reconfirms FY25 outlook
XXL.NO (XXL ASA) -- Q1 adj. net income (NOK311M) vs FactSet (NOK163.7M); currently working on several short-term turnaround actions and longer-term strategic plan
SIGN.SW (SIG Combibloc Group) -- Q1 Adj EBITDA €166.4M vs FactSet €165.3M [5 est, €159.5-170.1M]; confirms 2025 guidance
DB1.GR (Deutsche Börse) -- Q1 EPS €2.86 vs consensus €2.91; FY25 outlook remains unchanged (post-close 28-Apr)
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- Q1 EPS €2.54 vs FactSet €2.41 [3 est, €2.31-2.46]; reconfirms FY25 outlook
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- FY EPS (CHF3.69) vs FactSet (CHF2.21) [2 est, (CHF3.04)-(1.37)]
VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.40 vs FactSet SEK0.77 [7 est, SEK0.43-1.17]
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- Q1 EPS SEK7.26 vs consensus SEK6.78
AMUN.FP (Amundi) -- Q1 adjusted net income €303M vs consensus €306M
LAT1V.FH (Lassila & Tikanoja) -- Q1 EPS €0.09 vs FactSet €0.02 [3 est, €0.02-0.02]
ATEA.NO (Atea) -- Q1 EPS NOK1.45 vs FactSet NOK1.55 [4 est, NOK1.50-1.60]
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- Q1 Comparable EPS €0.13 vs FactSet €0.14 [7 est, €0.13-0.15]
SUR.GR (Surteco Group) -- Q1 EPS (€0.33) vs year-ago €0.44
PNDX.B.SS (Pandox) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.58 vs FactSet SEK1.95 [4 est, SEK1.56-2.76]
FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards) -- Q1 EPS (SEK0.00) vs year-ago (SEK0.05)
ADS.GR (Adidas) -- Q1 net income €436M vs FactSet €383.5M [8 est, €360.8-430.1M]
EMBLA.DC (Embla Medical hf) -- Q1 net income $12M vs FactSet $16.5M [4 est, $15-18.8M]
SSAB.B.SS (SSAB) -- Q1 EPS SEK1.13 vs StreetAccount SEK0.84
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- Q1 adj. EBITDA CHF190M vs consensus CHF174.0M; Outlook confirmed, sales growth at bottom end of range on current environment; CFO transition
MTG.B.SS (Modern Times Group MTG) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.55 vs FactSet SEK2.44 [5 est, SEK1.06-3.20]
DWS.GR (DWS Group) -- Q1 net income €199M vs consensus €194M; outlook remains unchanged
GSC1.GR (GESCO SE) -- confirms FY EPS €0.42 vs FactSet €0.57 [3 est, €0.42-0.88]
NCC.B.SS (NCC) -- Q1 EPS (SEK1.39) vs FactSet (SEK1.34) [4 est, (SEK1.50)-(1.23)]
SWEC.B.SS (Sweco) -- Q1 EPS SEK1.78 vs FactSet SEK1.90 [7 est, SEK1.76-1.98]
ALLFG.NA (Allfunds Group) -- Q1 trading update: revenue €162.6M vs FactSet €158.6M [3 est, €151-164.9M]
GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring) -- Q1 net income NOK1.30B vs consensus NOK1.30B; confirms FY guidance
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- Q1 EPS SEK1.67 vs FactSet SEK1.70 [7 est, SEK0.77-2.24]
MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines) -- prelim Q1 EBIT €300M vs FactSet €260.3M [3 est, €252.0-273M]
SUR.GR Surteco Group reports FY EPS €0.54 vs year-ago (€0.79)
ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.16 vs year-ago (SEK4.55); outlook for 2025 impacted by increased uncertainty
RHM.GR (Rheinmetall) -- prelim Q1 EBIT €199M vs FactSet €148.7M [4 est, €115.6-165M]; confirms FY guidance
RXL.FP (Rexel) -- Q1 revenue €4.83B vs consensus €4.84B; confirms FY guidance
P911.GR (Porsche) -- guides FY25 revenue €37-38B vs prior guidance €39-40B and FactSet €38.72B [19 est, €35.84-42.43B]
REC.IM (Recordati) -- prelim Q1 revenue €680M vs FactSet €675.2M [2 est, €674.4-676M]; provides long term guidance
NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor) -- Q1 EPS $0.006 vs FactSet $0.02 [8 est, $0.00-0.04]
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- Q1 EPS SEK3.84 vs consensus SEK3.87
BELA.GA (Jumbo) -- FY net income €320.1M vs FactSet €300.1M [7 est, €282.7-303M]
EMSN.SW (EMS-Chemie Holding) -- Q1 revenue CHF522M vs FactSet CHF524.7M [2 est, CHF523.3-526M]
BUCN.SW (Bucher Industries) -- Q1 revenue CHF783M vs FactSet CHF768.0M [1 est]
FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO) -- Q1 revenue and net income in line with 25-Apr prelims; says Q1 2025 results support full-year guidance
NK.FP (Imerys) -- Q1 current net income €31M vs year-ago €83M
MERY.FP (Mercialys) -- Q1 Gross rental income €45.55M, +4% vs year-ago €43.87M
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.42 vs FactSet SEK0.46 [3 est, SEK0.36-0.51]
SANOMA.FH (Sanoma) -- Q1 operational EPS (€0.17) vs FactSet (€0.19) [4 est, (€0.20)-(0.17)]
RECT.BB (Recticel) -- Reading Update: Q1 revenue €158.4M, +13% vs year-ago €140.6M
C3RY.GR (Cherry) -- expects Q1 revenue €25.3M vs year-ago €30.3M
M&A
EWIND.NO Electric AS launches unconditional mandatory cash offer to acquire all outstanding shares in Edda Wind for NOK 23.00/sh
INSE.LN (Inspired) -- announces shareholders collectively holding over 49.15% of issued share capital do not intend to accept Regent's offer
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche granted FDA Breakthrough Device Designation for first AI-driven companion diagnostic for non-small cell lung cancer
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer's Crop Science Division CFO resigns
ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA) -- Cellectis presents Non-Viral Gene Editing and Base Editing Innovation at the ASGCT Annual Meeting
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- late-breaking Ph.2 data for elafibranor in PSC to be presented by Ipsen at EASL Congress 2025
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- announced the publication of "Effect of daridorexant on nighttime wakefulness and next-morning sleepiness: assessing the transition from night to day in insomnia disorder" in Sleep Medicine.
ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience) -- announces subscription price determined for the exercise of warrants series TO 12
CRNA.NO (Circio Holding) -- receives request from Atlas Special Opportunities for the conversion of NOK2.0M (nominal value) of convertible bonds
COPN.SW Cosmo Pharmaceuticals receives negative CHMP opinion on Winlevi in Europe; Will appeal the decision
Other
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- launches tap issue of non-dilutive convertible bonds for up to €150M to be fully assimilated to its €400M non-dilutive convertible bonds due February 2030
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- publishes its Financial Condition Report 2024
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- to initiate new SEK 2.5B buyback programme of Class A shares
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BALN.SW (Baloise) -- to outperform from underperform at BNP Paribas
HELN.SW (Helvetia Holding) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas
MAP.SM (MAPFRE) -- to neutral from underperform at Autonomous Research
SUBC.NO (Subsea 7) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
Downgrades
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- to neutral from outperform at Mediobanca
ACAD.SS (AcadeMedia) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
ALV.GR (Allianz) -- to neutral from outperform at Autonomous Research
AHT.LN (Ashtead Group) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
DB1.GR (Deutsche Börse) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
HMSO.LN (Hammerson) --to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
GFC.FP (Gecina) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
Initiations
UTG.LN (UNITE Group) -- reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
BKW.SW (BKW AG) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Other Actions
PRY.IM (Prysmian) -- transferred buy at Berenberg; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei closed
Hang Seng +0.05% to 21982.83
Shanghai Composite (0.16%) to 3283.11
S&P futures +3.8 vs prior close of 5553.0
€-$ (0.0036) or (0.31%) to 1.1387
$-¥ +0.44 or +0.31% to 142.46
€-¥ (0.02) or (0.01%) to 162.19
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