Apr 30 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mostly higher despite latest econ data from US, including a contractionary Q1 GDP reading and softer ADP private payrolls. Spain underperforms. Follows mostly positive close on Tuesday. Telecom, Media, Food & Beverage, Real Estate and Industrials the best performers. Basic Resources, Travel & Leisure and Banks the biggest decliners.
On a busy macro calendar, looking at Q1 GDPs, France grows +0.1% q/q vs consensus +0.2%, Germany +0.2% in line with forecast, Italy beats +0.3% vs consensus +0.2%. April Inflation steady in France +0.8% y/y and Italy +2.0% y/y, though up from prior +1.9%. German retail sales fell (0.2%) m/m vs consensus (0.4%) and prior month increase +0.2% revised from +0.8%, unemployment up 4K less than forecast 20K and prior 26K, while factory gate prices eased. UK business confidence fell sharply in April and house prices unexpectedly declined (0.6%) m/m vs consensus for a flat variation. Big drop in Swiss KOF leading indicator to 18-month low 97.1 vs consensus 101.8 and prior revised 103.2 from 103.9. Eurozone Q1 Preliminary GDP +1.2% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.2%. Germany April inflation due at 8:00 ET.
Busy corporate earnings calendar in Europe. In the banking sector, UBS (UBSG.SW), Banco Santander (SAN.SM), Societe Generale (GLE.GP), Credit Agricole (ACA.FP), Barclays (BARC.LN) and CaixaBank (CABK.SM) posted their Q1 updates before the open whilst - in the auto sector - Volkswagen (VOW.GR3), Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) and Stellantis (STLAM.IM) also issued Q1 numbers, with the latter suspending FY25 guidance due to tariffs developments. In the energy sector, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP), Equinor (EQNR.NO) and Iberdrola (IBE.SM) posted updates whilst - in the Netherlands - ASM International (ASM.NA), ArcelorMittal (MT.NA) and Adyen (ADYEN.NA) also updated investors. From the DACH region, several companies released earnings, including DHL Group (DHL.GR), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR), Aixtron (AIXA.GR) and Kion Group (KGX.GR) among few others; UK market also busy with GSK Plc (GSK.LN), Glencore (GLEN.LN), Smith & Nephew (SN.LN), Coca-Cola HBC (CCH.LN), Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML.LN) and Taylor Wimpey PLC (TW.LN) reporting before the open. Elsewhere, Anglo American (AAL.LN) shareholders approved proposed demerger of Anglo American Platinum (AMS.SJ) and the company's share consolidation.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, UK Mar mortgage approvals, M4 money supply and Switzerland Apr manufacturing PMI. Of note, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye will be closed all for Labor Day, while Israel for Independence Day.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +1.43%, Media +1.40%, Food & Beverage +1.36%, Health Care +1.31%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.14%, Real Estate +1.10%, Insurance +0.81%, Utilities +0.78%, Financial Svcs +0.78%, Construct & Mtls +0.73%
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (2.85%), Travel & Leisure (2.59%), Banks (1.90%), Autos & Parts (1.27%), Oil & Gas (0.88%), Retail (0.22%), Technology +0.13%, Chemicals +0.35%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.33%
Macro:
Central banks:
German Inflation Eases to Seven-Month Low, Backing More ECB Cuts -- Bloomberg
EU:
Harris to meet EU trade commissioner to discuss US trade relations -- RTE
Stournaras: Crisis may be Europe's chance -- ekathimerini.com
UK:
Annual house price growth slows slightly in April -- Nationwide
Germany:
France:
Medical migration is crippling France's healthcare system -- Spectator
Italy:
Italy's economy holds up in Q1 thanks to domestic demand -- Reuters
Spain:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+31.5% DATA.LN (GlobalData £1.77, +0.43) -- Deutsche Numis upgrade
+17.0% VID.LN (Videndum £0.80, +0.12) -- FY earnings; ~£8M equity raise
+16.1% GNS.LN (Genus £18.48, +2.56) -- PRRS Resistant Pig gene edit for use in US food supply chain approved by FDA
+13.1% FIE.GR (Fielmann Group €49.95, +5.80) -- Q1 trading update
+12.8% VIRI.FP (Viridien €52.73, +5.92) -- Q1 earnings
+11.5% GL9.ID (Glanbia €11.20, +1.16) -- Q1 interim management statement
+11.1% CTNK.GR (centrotherm international €4.00, +0.40) -- Q1 earnings
+10.3% ANAV (Andritz €62.90, +5.90) -- Q1 earnings
+9.9% CAM.LN (Camellia £46.40, +4.20) -- FY earnings
+9.5% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.46, +0.04) -- FY earnings
+9.2% SCHP.SW (Schindler Holding CHF299.40, +25.40) -- Q1 earnings
+9.0% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.28, +0.11) -- Q1 earnings
+8.3% HIAB.FH (Hiab €41.38, +3.20) -- Q1 earnings
+7.9% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,390.00, +101.50) -- Q1 earnings; completes previously announced acquisition of Schenker
+7.3% KNEBV.FH (Kone €54.30, +3.70) -- Q1 earnings
+7.0% SHB.A.SS (Svenska Handelsbanken SEK126.35, +8.30) -- Q1 earnings
+6.1% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF7.28, +0.42) -- Q1 earnings
+6.0% SEA1.NO (Sea1 Offshore NOK19.50, +1.10) -- Q1 earnings
+6.0% BFSA.GR (Befesa €26.80, +1.50) -- Q1 earnings
+5.8% SN.LN (Smith & Nephew £10.52, +0.58) -- Q1 revenue
+5.7% PIHLIS.FH (Pihlajalinna €13.85, +0.75) -- Q1 earnings; provides medium-term strategic targets
+5.5% SWEC.B.SS (Sweco SEK169.30, +8.90) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade
+5.4% NEX.FP (Nexans €96.60, +4.95) -- Q1 sales
+4.5% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €4.36, +0.19) -- Q1 earnings
+4.3% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €11.94, +0.48) -- Q1 earnings
+4.2% TOM.NO (Tomra Systems NOK162.50, +6.60) -- initiated buy at Clarksons Secruties
+4.0% SESG.FP (SES €4.63, +0.18) -- Q1 earnings
+3.9% CCH.LN (Coca-Cola HBC £38.72, +1.46) -- Q1 trading update
+3.8% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €45.43, +1.65) -- Q1 earnings
+3.7% ABVX.FP (Abivax €6.40, +0.23) -- completes enrollment for the Phase 3 ABTECT trials
+3.6% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £14.85, +0.52) -- Q1 earnings
+3.5% CMBT.BB (CMB.TECH €8.50, +0.29) -- business update
+3.4% RILBA.DC (Ringkjøbing Landbobank DKK1,257.00, +41.00) -- Q1 earnings; new DKK 1.00B buyback
+3.1% ELG.GR (Elmos Semiconductor €59.10, +1.80) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+2.9% NESTE.FH (Neste €9.18, +0.26) -- Danske Bank upgrade; Carnegie Securities upgrade
+2.6% BRG.NO (Borregaard NOK178.40, +4.60) -- Q1 earnings
+2.6% ARJO.B.SS (Arjo SEK32.24, +0.81) -- Q1 earnings; Danske Bank downgrade
+2.5% CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding NOK124.00, +3.00) -- final extension of SoftwareOne Offer to 6-May
+2.3% FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks £7.95, +0.18) -- Q1 earnings
+2.1% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €46.64, +0.96) -- Q4 sales
Notable Decliners
-19.3% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK674.20, -161.40) -- Q1 earnings
-12.7% ONTEX.BB (Ontex Group €7.20, -1.05) -- Q1 revenue
-10.1% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK106.00, -11.90) -- Q1 earnings
-9.9% VU.FP (VusionGroup €178.30, -19.40) -- holder sells 1.12M shares at €178/sh in private placement
-8.7% WAF.GR (Siltronic €35.26, -3.40) -- Q1 earnings
-7.6% ELK.NO (Elkem NOK18.20, -1.50) -- Q1 earnings
-7.4% GLEN.LN (Glencore £2.46, -0.20) -- Q1 production update
-7.0% APAM.NA (Aperam €25.42, -1.92) -- Q1 earnings
-6.5% WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie €65.95, -4.60) -- Q1 earnings
-5.2% ZAL.GR (Zalando €31.96, -1.76) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-5.1% LPK.GR (LPKF Laser & Electronics €8.07, -0.44) -- Q1 earnings
-5.0% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £2.43, -0.13) -- new CFO
-4.4% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €16.50, -0.76) -- Q1 earnings
-4.3% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK2.22, -0.10) -- Q1 earnings
-4.1% NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor NOK102.50, -4.40) -- SEB downgrade
-4.1% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK0.90, -0.04) -- Q1 earnings
-4.0% GEMD.LN (Gem Diamonds £0.08, -0.00) -- Q1 trading update
-3.9% SAN.SM (Banco Santander €6.18, -0.25) -- Q1 earnings
-3.6% EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank €59.50, -2.25) -- Q1 earnings
-3.4% CABK.SM (CaixaBank €6.74, -0.24) -- Q1 earnings
-3.0% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK7.88, -0.24) -- Q1 earnings
-2.8% ARBN.SW (Arbonia CHF6.24, -0.18) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-2.3% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €51.00, -1.19) -- Q1 earnings
-2.1% ADYEN.NA (Adyen €1,409.00, -30.60) -- Q1 revenue
-1.9% MORG.NO (Sparebanken Møre NOK100.00, -1.90) -- Q1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: Spar Nord Bank (SPNO.DC), Alm. Brand (ALMB.DC), GN Store Nord (GN.DC), Netcompany Group (NETC.DC), D/S Norden (DNORD.DC)
UK: Whitbread (WTB.LN), Keystone Law Group (KEYS.LN)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Cie Financiere Tradition (CFT.SW)
UK: London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN), Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Morgan Sindall Group (MGNS.LN), Lancashire Holdings (LRE.LN), International Personal Finance (IPF.LN), Reach (RCH.LN), IG Design Group (IGR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Q1 Preliminary GDP +1.2% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.2%
Italy
Q1 Preliminary GDP y/y +0.6% vs consensus +0.4% and prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
April
Preliminary CPI +2.0% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and prior +1.9%
March
PPI +3.9% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and prior +6.2%
Germany
Q1 Preliminary GDP (0.2%) y/y vs consensus (0.2%) and prior (0.2%)
April
Preliminary CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and prior +2.2%
Unemployment Change +4K vs consensus +20K and prior +26K
March
Retail Sales y/y +2.2% vs consensus +3.2% and prior +4.9%
France
Q1 Preliminary GDP q/q +0.1% vs consensus +0.1% and prior revised to (0.06%) from (0.1%)
April
Preliminary CPI y/y +0.8% vs consensus +0.8% and prior +0.8%
March
Consumer Goods Spending m/m (1.0%) vs consensus 0.0% and prior revised to (0.2%) from (0.1%)
PPI m/m (0.6%) vs consensus (0.4%) and prior revised to (1.2%) from (1.4%)
UK April Nationwide House Price Index y/y +3.4% vs consensus +4.1% and prior +3.9%
Netherlands
Q1 Preliminary GDP +2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.9%
March PPI y/y +0.4% vs consensus n/a and prior (1.4%)
Austria Q1 Preliminary GDP (0.7%) y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (0.5%)
Switzerland April KOF Leading Indicator 97.1 vs consensus 102.0 and prior revised to 103.2 from 103.9
Belgium March PPI m/m (0.7%) vs consensus n/a and prior +0.2%
Ireland Apr
Preliminary HICP +2.0% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and prior +1.8%
Unemployment Rate 4.1% vs consensus 4.0% and prior revised 4.4% from 4.0%
Portugal Mar Unemployment Rate 6.5% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.4%
Denmark March Unemployment Rate 2.6% vs consensus 2.7% and prior 2.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Jun): ($0.52) or (0.86%) to $59.90
€-$ (0.0052) or (0.46%) to 1.1335
£-$ (0.0072) or (0.54%) to 1.3337
€-£ +0.0008 to 0.8501
S&P 500 (0.95%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +3.55%
DAX: +13.00%
CAC: +2.89%
MIB: +10.00%
Stoxx 600: +3.90%
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