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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.13%, Hang Seng closed, Shanghai Composite closed as of 04:10 ET

May 01 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities advanced Thursday with most of the region offline for public holidays. Japan rose while Australia swung to marginal gains. Greater China, Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia and India all closed. Regional support came from sharp gains in US futures on stronger-than-expected tech earnings and signs that Washington might be close to announcing first round of trade deals. Came after mixed performance in the cash session that rallied into the close on some likely month-end support with both Dow and S&P 500 higher for seventh straight session. Treasuries little changed, JGBs strengthened notably from front to long end in reaction to BOJ decision. DXY rose while yen weakened after BOJ. Crude oil lower, gold extending declines, bitcoin moderately higher.

    • BOJ dominated Asia macro headlines on an otherwise quiet day. The bank left the policy rate unchanged as widely expected while notably downgrading FY25/26 economic projections. Conceded that underlying inflation is likely to be sluggish before a pickup in the second half of the projection period, which was extended through FY27. Retained core forward guidance that policy adjustments would continue if economic developments tracked forecasts, though signaled a more cautious assessment in light of heightened uncertainties.

    • In other developments, a social media account linked to CCTV reportedly posted the Trump administration has been reaching out to Beijing for talks though indicated little motivation to respond until Washington takes meaningful steps, reinforcing the standoff after Treasury Secretary Bessent's earlier remarks that it's up to China to de-escalate. Headline South Korea exports unexpectedly expanded in April despite tariff effects and partial month data having pointed to a decline. However, calendar-adjusted measure fell moderately as an indication of underlying softness. South Korea acting president Han Duck-soo resigned to announce his bid for presidency. President Trump said he has potential trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, adding in no rush to conclude deals as US is "reaping benefits" of his tariffs.

    • Seven & I Holdings (3382.JP) said it has signed NDA with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.CN) to engage in further deal discussions. Xiaomi (1810.HK) has unveiled reasoning AI model developed in-house called MiMo meanwhile Nvidia's (NVDA) Jensen Huang said China is not behind in AI.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ downgrades economic forecasts, delays timeframe for achieving price target:

      • BOJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% as widely expected. Conduct of monetary policy was explained in the April Outlook Report. Amid heightened uncertainties, guided an expected range for core inflation at 2.0-2.5% in FY25, 1.5-2.0% in FY26 and around 2% in FY27. However, noted underlying inflation likely to be sluggish reflecting deceleration in the economy. View remains upbeat for the second half of the projection period (though that has been extended by another year with the April report) when underlying inflation is expected to be consistent with the price stability target. Conceded risk balance skewed to the downside for FY25/26 on both economic activity and prices. Forward guidance retained the core stance that policy adjustments will continue if developments track forecasts, though added they would take a cautious approach to their assessment without any preconceptions, echoing prior remarks from Governor Ueda. Actual economic forecasts were revised down as widely flagged in the press. GDP growth was cut notably to a sub-1% pace in FY25/26 and seen recovering to 1% in FY27. Core inflation also shaved with FY26 revised to below 2% and FY27 seen at 1.9%. Governor Ueda's remarks at the press conference confirmed elevated uncertainties have eroded the confidence level in achieving the main outlook scenario (Reuters). Recited the outlook report reference to underlying inflation entering sluggish phase and explicitly admitted the timing for convergence to the inflation target will be pushed back. Still, positive wage-price cycle expected to remain intact, underpinned by severe labor shortages.

    • Flurry of talk about trade deals, but progress remains unclear:

      • Bloomberg cited China media indicating the Trump administration has been seeking contact with Beijing to initiate tariff talks though there were no details. Yet the Weibo post from an account affiliated with CCTV said "China doesn't need to talk to the US until it takes meaningful measures," arguing the US is "clearly the more anxious party at the moment." President Trump in a later town hall reiterated confidence that a deal would be struck (Bloomberg) while also touting "potential deals" with South Korea, Japan and India. White House Trade adviser Navarro told CNBC that a trade deal with India is "close." Reference to pending approvals from India's prime minister and parliament fit with Commerce Secretary Lutnick's earlier declaration that the first trade deal was done without naming the country. However, USTR Greer's tone in a Fox News interview was more reserved, indicating the timeline for deals was a matter of "weeks" not "months." Clarified negotiations with India are not "finish-line close" though highlighted frequent engagement. Described South Korea as "very forward-leaning" and moving in the right direction and description suggested a deal would take some time. Also mentioned his previous direct contact with China was before 2-Apr and confirmed no official talks are under way.

    • South Korea headline exports unexpectedly rise, but calendar-adjusted measure lower:

      • South Korea customs exports rose 3.7% y/y in April, contrasting with expectations of a 2.0% decline and well above the range of estimates (Reuters). Follows 3.0% growth in the previous month and marks a four-month high. However, Bloomberg noted trading-day adjusted exports fell 0.7% y/y, the second decline in three months. Figures attracting attention as the first read on regional trade, particularly with tariff impacts broadly expected to kick in from April. Semiconductors logged a four-month high 17.2% growth, steel products rose 5.4% for the first increase in four months, while autos fell 3.8%. By region, US shipments dropped 6.8%, contrasting with 3.9% growth in China and an 18.4% surge to EU to a record level. Focus on exports overshadowed imports, which fell 2.7%, notably smaller than an expected 7.0% drop, following a 2.3% rise in the previous month. Trade surplus was $4.88B, above consensus $4.35B though lower than $4.92B in March. Markets waiting for progress on US trade talks, though South Korean government indicated no hurry for a deal before the 3-Jun snap election.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.8% 9022.JP (Central Japan Railway): reports FY results with revenue and operating profit ahead of FactSet estimates; launches up to ¥100B buyback

      • +5.1% 4578.JP (Otsuka Holdings): fund reportedly in early-stage talks to buy Otsuka Holdings's stake in MicroPort Scientific

      • +2% 3382.JP (Seven & i): Alimentation Couche-Tard signs non-disclosure agreement with Seven & i Holdings to progress transaction discussions

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12.8% 6981.JP (Murata Manufacturing): reports Q4 earnings with operating profit below StreetAccount estimates; FY guidance below FactSet consensus

      • -5.7% 9503.JP (The Kansai Electric Power): reports FY results with revenue below FactSet estimates

      • -2.1% 3092.JP (ZOZO Inc): reports FY results with revenue below FactSet estimates

      • -0.07% 8035.JP (Tokyo Electron): reports FY earnings

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • April final manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs preliminary 48.5 and 48.4 in prior month

      • South Korea

        • April trade balance $4.88B vs consensus $4.35B and $4.92B in prior month

          • Exports +3.7% y/y vs consensus (2.0%) and +3.1% in prior month

          • Imports (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (7.0%) and +2.3% in prior month

      • Australia

        • March trade balance A$6.90B vs consensus A$3.90B and revised A$$2.85B in February

          • Exports +7.6% y/y vs revised (4.2%) in February

          • Imports (2.2%) y/y vs revised +1.8% in February

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 406.92 or +1.13% to 36452.30

      • Hang Seng: 0.00 or 0.00% to 22119.41

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 3279.03

      • Shenzhen Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 1915.62

      • ASX200: 19.40 or +0.24% to 8145.60

      • KOSPI: 0.00 or 0.00% to 2556.61

      • SENSEX: 0.00 or 0.00% to 80242.24

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +1.22 or +0.85% to 144.2800

      • $-KRW: +0.08 or +0.01% to 1424.7700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.22%) to 0.6384

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.05% to 84.6033

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2704

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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