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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.06% to 8500.00, DAX closed, CAC closed, STOXX 600 +0.03% to 527.62

May 01 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Most major European markets closed for Labor Day today, with the UK FTSE the and Denmark's OMX 20 only major indexes open. Travel/leisure, basic resources and media best performers. Energy, chemicals and construction/materials the biggest laggards.

    • Focus remained on geopolitical developments. Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter, who said the EU is planning to present a paper with the US next week, which will set out proposals to start trade negotiations. Article highlighted paper will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, cooperating on global challenges such as tackling China's steel overcapacity and purchasing US goods like LNG and technologies.

    • In addition, Brussels is also moving forward with plans to retaliate should it fail to reach an agreement. These include preparing a list of goods that will be hit with tariffs and possible export restrictions. Politico pointed out by threatening extra retaliation in addition to measures that are currently suspended, it will add pressure on Washington to negotiate. However, EU diplomats caution that any offer will be tightly constrained by internal divisions among member countries. Some are reluctant to be seen as yielding to US pressure and others careful not to alienate one of the EU's historical allies.

    • On the macro-data front, the latest BoE data showed a weakening in new mortgage approvals ahead of April tax changes. March new mortgage approvals at 64.31K vs consensus 64.8K and prior revised 65.09K from 65.48K. It was the third consecutive decrease in new approvals, suggesting some of the demand in the housing market may be easing. Eurozone inflation data is due for publication on Friday, with consensus for it to ease to 2.1% y/y versus prior 2.2% reading. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, expected to increase to 2.5% y/y versus prior 2.4%.

    • Central bank narrative also in focus. The BoE is widely expected to cut key Bank Rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, but analysts see scope for a move away from gradual approach to easing later this year (Telegraph, Reuters). There are thoughts that Trump's tariffs will weigh on growth and likely to slow inflation a bit faster than previously expected, which could increase the possibility of faster rate cuts. Meanwhile, ECB will publish its latest Economic Bulletin tomorrow at 10:00CET.

    • In corporate news, Airbus SE (AIR.FP) reported Q1 earnings yesterday after the close including Q1 EBIT €624M ex-items vs consensus €602.0M and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance. Still in France, DBV Technologies (DBV.FP) also issued a Q1 update. Out of the Nordics, GN Store Nord (GN.DC) released Q1 numbers and announced actions capable of mitigating the majority of the assumed tariff impact on the EBITA margin in 2025 as well as updated its guidance. This morning, Alm. Brand (ALMB.DC) and Netcompany Group (NETC.DC) reported Q1 earnings. In addition, Coloplast (COLO.B.DC) lowered its FY guidance; said it does not expect material financial impact from US tariffs. In the UK, Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN) shares were higher following its latest trading update. Haleon (HLN.LN) traded also in positive territory as company reaffirmed its FY outlook and updated medium-term guidance during its CMD. Trading in the opposite direction, Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN) was down after posting its Q1 earnings.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Travel & Leisure +1.68%, Basic Resources +0.69%, Media +0.48%, Retail +0.32%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.24%, Real Estate+0.39%, Technology +0.10%, Insurance +0.04%, Utilities +0.03%

      • Underperformers

        • Oil & Gas +0.01%, Health Care (0.05%), Construct & Mtls (0.19%), Telecom (0.03%), Chemicals (0.05%), Autos & Parts +0.00%, Food & Beverage (0.12%), Banks (0.15%), Financial Svcs (0.26%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.01%)

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Geopolitics:

        • EU readies 'plan B' should Donald Trump walk away from Ukraine talks - FT

        • US and Ukraine signs resources deal - BBC, Bloomberg

      • UK-EU:

        • Brussels demands UK fishing rights in return for food standards deal - FT

      • UK:

        • Confidence among UK bosses rises after Trump tariff reversal - Reuters

        • First major ballot box test for Labour in local elections - Guardian

        • UK and India in final stage of trade talks - FT

        • Starmer defends net zero policy after Blair criticism - FT

        • Reeves under investigation by parliament's standards commissioner - Reuters

        • UK's Ofgem is expected to confirm the National Energy System Operator's ambitious new plan to reform grid connections - press release

      • Spain:

        • Spain's grid denies dependence on solar power to blame for blackout - Reuters

        • Catalonia delays raising tourist tax until after summer - Reuters

      • Portugal:

        • Portugal's premier pledges income tax cuts as election nears - Bloomberg

      • Greece:

        • Financing scandal rocks Greece's ruling party - Politico

        • Labor Day being marked with marches and strikes - ekathimerini

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +11.1% SYNT.LN (Synthomer £0.91, +0.09) -- trading update

        • +9.5% ELCO.LN (Eleco £1.33, +0.12) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.8% DNORD.DC (D/S Norden DKK191.00, +12.20) -- Q1 earnings; $7M (~ DKK 46M) share buyback

        • +6.2% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, -0.00) -- executes amended investment protection agreement with the Gov. of Ecuador for Cascabel copper-gold project

        • +5.9% WTB.LN (Whitbread £27.46, +1.53) -- FY earnings

        • +4.3% INF.LN (Informa £7.59, +0.32) -- trading update

        • +3.5% IKA.LN (Ilika Plc £0.37, +0.01) -- receives Goliath P1 cells validation by customer testing

        • +3.3% HLN.LN (Haleon £3.89, +0.13) -- Haleon reaffirms FY outlook and updates its medium-term guidance - CMD

        • +3.3% KEYS.LN (Keystone Law Group £5.29, +0.17) -- FY earnings

        • +3.2% AAL.LN (Anglo American £20.93, +0.65) -- shareholders approve proposed demerger of Anglo American Platinum and the company's share consolidation

        • +2.8% SAAS.LN (Microlise Group Holdings £1.10, +0.03) -- Microlise Group Holdings will vote in favor of a recommended cash offer for Trakm8 Holdings at a price of 9.5p per share, released on 1-May-25

        • +2.3% CCC.LN (Computacenter £24.66, +0.56) -- trading update

        • +2.2% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK267.60, +5.80) -- divests 24.5% stake in West of Duddon Sands Offshore Wind Farm for £456.1M (approx. DKK 4B)

        • +2.2% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £7.39, +0.16) -- Citi upgrade

        • +2.1% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK444.25, +9.15) -- Wegovy trial publication

        • +1.7% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £7.68, +0.13) -- trading update

        • +1.3% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £1.60, +0.02) -- collaborates with Microsoft and Yubic

        • +1.1% IQE.LN (IQE £0.09, -0.00)

        • +0.4% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £0.27, -0.00) -- new CFO

      • Notable Decliners

        • -12.0% GN.DC (GN Store Nord DKK86.76, -11.82) -- Q1 earnings

        • -9.3% CKN.LN (Clarkson £29.80, -3.05) -- trading update

        • -2.3% LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group £0.72, -0.02) -- Q1 earnings

        • -2.0% ALMB.DC (Alm. Brand DKK15.31, -0.31) -- Q1 earnings

        • -1.5% KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources £4.00, -0.06) -- FY earnings

        • -1.2% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £14.64, -0.18)

        • -1.1% AZN.LN (AstraZeneca £106.06, -1.22)

        • -0.9% NETC.DC (Netcompany Group DKK292.20, -2.80) -- Q1 earnings

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: ING Groep (INGA.NA), ArcelorMittal (MT.NA), Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBLB.BB)

        • DACHs: BASF SE (BAS.GR), Mediclin (MED.GR), Bike24 Holding (BIKE.GR), Landis+Gyr Group (LAND.SW)

        • Nordics: Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC), Schouw & Co (SCHO.DC)

        • UK: Shell Plc (SHEL.LN), NatWest Group (NWG.LN), Standard Chartered (STAN.LN), Air Astana (AIRA.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK

        • Apr Manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs preliminary 44.0

        • Mar M4 Money Supply +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.2%

        • Mar Mortgage Approvals 64.31K vs consensus 64.8K and prior revised 65.09K from 65.48K

      • Switzerland Mar Retail Sales +2.2% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior revised +1.2% from +1.6%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jun 25): +$0.40 or +0.69% to $58.61

      • €-$ (0.0054) or (0.47%) to 1.1278

      • £-$ (0.0046) or (0.34%) to 1.3286

      • €-£ (0.0011) to 0.8488

      • S&P 500 +1.35%

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +4.00%

        • DAX: +13.00%

        • CAC: +2.89%

        • MIB: +10.00%

        • Stoxx 600: +3.94%

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