May 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended higher across the region Friday to cap a strong week. Taiwan strongest amid hopes easing of trade tensions between US and China would benefit its semi stocks, Hang Seng was higher albeit off its peak, Japan ended higher again. South Korea underperformed on political turmoil. Gains for India, Southeast Asia. Mainland China closed for a holiday. US futures higher, Europe opened with strong gains. Dollar off overnight highs, DXY dipping below 100 again, AUD, yen strengthening, Taiwan's dollar surging on trade talk hopes. Treasuries mixed, JGB 10Y yield down for second day post BOJ. Crude futures higher, gold higher. Base metals advancing on trade talk news.
Asia stocks boosted by comments from China's Commerce Ministry that said it was considering the US's offer over trade negotiations. The reports sparked an immediate rally in financial assets with the Hang Seng and Taiwan's Taiex benefiting the most, with notable strengthening in the offshore yuan and another step lower in China government bond yields. Japan markets further supported after the government said it hoped to agree a trade deal in June but also said it was considering using its US Treasury holdings as leverage in talks. A Nikkei report post the close suggested Japan had opposed the US's trade offer as it omitted tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum.
Regional PMIs were weak with every nation except for the Philippines and India showing a contraction in manufacturing with noticeable drops in new orders, output and sentiment dragging most readings below 50. South Korea CPI was unchanged but market attention was on political developments, which deteriorated considerably overnight after several senior politicians resigned and the supreme court cast doubt over the eligibility of the current frontrunner and opposition leader Lee Jae-myung. Japan's unemployment rate ticked higher, Australia's retail sales grew in March but missed expectations, Indonesia core CPI steady at 2.5%, in line with expectations and March's number.
PDD Holding's (PDD) Temu is abandoning its model that centers around importing cheap China-made goods and will sell only locally-made products to American consumers for the foreseeable future. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and Kia Motor (Kia Corp, 000270.KS) said their combined vehicle sales in the US surged 16% in April. SK Telecom (017670.KS) has temporarily paused on taking new subscriptions amid a USIM shortage. Capital A (5099.MK), the owner of AirAsia, is considering a listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange as it looks to broaden its global capital base after exiting financial distress status.
Digest:
China weighing US overtures on trade negotiations:
In response to a reporter's question, spokesperson from China Commerce Ministry said Beijing is weighing response to recent US overtures on trade negotiations (Bloomberg). Statement follows recent state media Weibo post that claimed US had proactively reached out to China and that there was "no harm" in Beijing engaging (FT, Reuters). China's softened tone follows series of defiant messages over recent weeks vowing to resist the US and repeatedly disputing White House claims the two sides were in negotiations. At same time, media reports have been highlighting how China has been quietly exempting US-made goods from 125% tariffs (Reuters, Bloomberg). White House has also maintained view Beijing would return to negotiating table given unsustainability of tariffs and Trump had flagged significant tariff reduction if two sides can reach a deal. Still, situation remains somewhat uncertain after China Commerce Ministry spokesperson acknowledged press leaks about US adjusting tariffs, but repeated that China remains prepared to fight until the end and again called on Trump administration to unilaterally reduce tariffs if it is serious about talks.
Japan aims to accelerate US trade talks from mid-May, Treasuries among cards it holds:
On Thursday Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa concluded latest round of trade talks with Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer (Bloomberg). Akazawa noted concrete discussions were held on issue including bilateral trade, non-tariff measures, and cooperation on economic security. Said aim is to accelerate talks from mid-May with goal of achieving an agreement in June. Previous reports have also noted Japan had been preparing offers such as boosting imports of corn and soybeans. However, Akazawa did reiterate national interest concerns, particularly access to Japan's agricultural and automotive markets. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Kato suggested Treasury holdings among cards Japan holds in negotiations with US (Reuters).Kato's response was a hypothetical one in response to a question, saying whether Japan would use that card is a different matter altogether. Note Japan LDP policy chief had previously dismissed taking action against Treasuries given market disruptions that would ensue (Bloomberg). Kato echoed market volatility warnings in his comments.
Asia manufacturing contracts, sending signal Trump's tariffs hurting regional output:
S&PGlobal PMIs showed Asia manufacturing contracted almost everywhere in April in first significant sign Trump's tariffs were slowing regional output. Every PMI with exception of Philippines showed contraction as readings slipped below 50 as output and new order components declined notably. South Korea's reading slipped to 47.8 from 49.8 with its sharpest falls in output, new orders in almost two years and sentiment component falling to its lowest ever recorded in PMI series. Declines in employment and stocks also weighed. Taiwan's reading fell to 16-month low with survey showing lowest sentiment among manufacturers in more than two years. Output and new orders both fell sharply. Indonesia saw sharpest decline since Aug-21 with PMI falling back into contraction for first time in five months at 46.7 from 52.5. Thailand and Malaysia PMIs both saw extension of March's contractions. Philippines a bright spot with expansionary 53.0 PMI reading although business confidence fell to second lowest on record.
South Korea political turmoil deepens after resignations, Supreme Court ruling:
South Korea's political uncertainty deteriorated late Thursday into Friday following resignation of several senior politicians (FT). PM Han Duck-soo, who also had been acting president, resigned Thursday ahead of entry into presidential election race; had been in role for less than two weeks (Yonhap). Finance minister Choi set to take interim president role after Han left but resigned after parliament restarted impeachment proceedings against him. Education minister Lee Ju-hoo next in line; he asked military to stay on alert but pledged to ensure stable state affairs (Yonhap). Country's Supreme Court added to upheaval after ruling opposition leader, poll fronter runner Lee Jae-myung had violated electoral law by making 'false statements' during presidential bid in 2022. Ordered appeals court to issue sentence that could bar Lee from running for office although appeals ruling could take months to materialize (Yonhap, Reuters). Kospi opened flat to underperform region, won weakened; government said it remained vigilant monitoring of financial markets amid political turmoil (Yonhap).
South Korea inflation slightly above forecast in April:
Headline CPI rose 2.1% y/y in April, the same in March and came slightly above consensus 2.0%. CPI rose 0.1% m/m, after rising 0.2% in prior month and was the slowest since November. Core inflation edged up to 2.1%, topping estimates and March's, both at 1.9%. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices advanced by 3%, clothing and shoes rose 2.1% and education edged up 2.8%. Statistics Korea attributed sharp rises in food to weak won that drove up import costs. Meanwhile transportation slipped 0.4% amid decline in global oil prices (Bloomberg, Yonhap). Data came as officials assessing economy support after growth shrank in Q1 with further hits to exports amid Trump tariffs. Bloomberg Economics noted BOK is still likely to cut rates in May after hold in April given inflation risks broadly contained as priority shifts to growth amid political instability and trade tensions.
Notable Gainers:
+9.9% 2383.TT (Elite Material): reports Q1 earnings with revenue and operating income ahead of FactSet estimates.
+9.9% 000150.KS (Doosan): reports Q1 results with year-on-year net income attributable increase
+5.3% 9064.JP (Yamato Holdings): reports FY results with revenue and operating income ahead of FactSet estimates
+1.1% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): delivers 23,900 vehicles in April, +53.0% y/y
+0.4% 2888.HK (Standard Chartered): reports Q1 underlying EPS $0.63 vs consensus $0.54
+0.0% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): activist Third Point reportedly owns stake in US Steel, believes acquisition by Nippon will close
Notable Decliners:
-9.0% 2579.JP (Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings): reports Q1 earnings; confirms FY guidance
-7.7% 9987.HK (Yum China Holdings): reports Q1 earning with revenue below FactSet estimates
-1.1% 017670.KS (SK Telecom): temporarily suspends new subscriptions amid USIM shortage following administrative guidance from The Ministry of Science and ICT
Data:
Economic:
Japan
March unemployment rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.4% and 2.4% in prior month
Job offers to applicants ratio 1.26 vs consensus 1.25 vs 1.24 in prior month
Australia
March retail sales +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +0.2% in February
Q1 PPI +0.9% q/q vs +0.8% in Q4
PPI 3.7% y/y vs +3.7% in Q4
South Korea
April CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and +2.1% in prior month
New Zealand
March Building Permits m/m +9.6% versus +0.7% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 378.39 or +1.04% to 36830.69
Hang Seng: 385.27 or +1.74% to 22504.68
Shanghai Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 3279.03
Shenzhen Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 1915.62
ASX200: 92.40 or +1.13% to 8238.00
KOSPI: 3.18 or +0.12% to 2559.79
SENSEX: 296.03 or +0.37% to 80538.27
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.22) or (0.15%) to 145.1840
$-KRW: (25.09) or (1.75%) to 1411.0000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.51% to 0.6413
$-INR: (0.63) or (0.74%) to 84.0601
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2704
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE