May 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended sharply higher Friday, near best levels. Recall most European markets (not UK and Denmark) were closed Thursday due to 1 May holidays. Tech, basic resources and construction/materials the best performers today as markets reacted to latest US-China trade developments. Notably, China Commerce Ministry revealed Beijing evaluating US offer on negotiations. Follows state media Weibo post this week that also signalled openness to talks. While China repeated readiness to fight and again called on US to unilaterally drop tariffs, softened tone seen as latest de-escalation signal following recent reports Beijing has quietly exempted certain US-made goods from tariffs.
More attention on US earnings. AMZN Q2 operating profit guidance softer-than-expected with group flagging material impact from trade and tariff policies, FX volatility and recessionary concerns. Revenue growth from third party sellers down sharply as China tariffs went into effect. Also, some attention to AWS revenue miss, spotlighting contrast with Azure beat. Elsewhere, AAPL flagged $900M cost impact from tariffs in Q3. China revenue fell again amid local competitive pressures. Group also moving ahead with supply chain reorientation, aiming to produce majority of US iPhone in India from current quarter.
On the macro data front, main highlight in Europe was Eurozone inflation update, which was unchanged from March after beating expectations. Upward revision in Eurozone manufacturing PMI. US April headline payrolls of 177K ahead of consensus, though prior two months revised down a total 58K. Unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings of 0.2% m/m a bit cooler than expected.
Some attention on UK politics after Reform performed well in local elections and won Rucorn by-election to take seat by six votes. Elsewhere, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil, putting spotlight on countries such as China and Iran.
On the corporate front, bank earnings in focus. Standard Chartered (STAN.LN) delivered 10% profit rise on wealth and markets strength, warned on tariff risks. Strong Q1 results prompted ING (INGA.NA) to launch new €2B buyback, raise CET1 target amid economic uncertainty. NatWest (NWG.LN) also reported better than expected earnings. BASF (BAS.GR) Q1 earnings dipped as trade tensions and weak demand cloud outlook, annual guidance maintained. Pearson shares (1.8%) lower following this morning's trading update, which showed Q1 underlying group sales +1%.
The week ahead sees interest rate decisions in Norway, Sweden and UK, Friedrich Merz set to become Germany's new Chancellor, services PMIs from across the region, Germany Mar industrial production, Switzerland Apr CPI as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), AXA (CS.FP), BMW (BMW.GR), Enel (ENEL.IM), International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC), UniCredit (UCG.IM) and Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW). UK markets are closed on Mon for bank holiday.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
STOXX Europe 600 sectors:
Outperformers: Technology +3.34%, Ind Goods & Svcs +3.09%, Construct & Mtls +2.79%, Travel & Leisure +2.33%, Banks +1.96%, Consumer Products and Services +1.90%, Autos & Parts +1.78%, Financial Svcs +1.73%,
Underperformers: Utilities (0.97%), Telecom (0.07%), Real Estate +0.48%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.49%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.56%, Insurance +0.73%, Media +0.83%, Retail +0.98%, Energy +1.31%, Chemicals +1.53%, Health Care +1.60%,
Macro:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.4% CAT.B.SS (Catella SEK33.80, +4.50) -- to divest Kaktus Towers in Copenhagen; underlying property value of SEK 2.1B
+10.4% COFB.BB (Cofinimmo €77.90, +7.35) -- Aedifica proposes voluntary conditional exchange offer on all shares of Cofinimmo; BNP Paribas Exane and Oddo upgrades
+8.1% ARCH.NO (Archer NOK21.30, +1.65) -- signs major five-year contract with Repsol (REP.SM)
+7.6% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF7.60, +0.55) -- initiated buy at Hauck & Aufhäuser
+7.3% INGA.NA (ING Groep €17.88, +1.24) -- Q1 earnings; €2.0B share buyback
+6.9% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK17.02, +1.14) -- new CEO
+5.7% ANOD.B.SS (Addnode Group SEK89.10, +4.80) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade
+5.5% DANSKE.DC (Danske Bank DKK238.40, +12.60) -- Q1 earnings
+5.2% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €154.28, +7.60) -- Q1 earnings
+5.1% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €23.99, +1.17) -- Cytokinetics announces new PDUFA date for Aficamten in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; BofA upgrade
+4.9% BIKE.GR (Bike24 Holding €2.14, +0.10) -- Q1 earnings
+4.9% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings €21.54, +1.01) -- Apr traffic; Ryanair to seek alternative supplier if Trump tariffs materially affect price of Boeing planes it has ordered - Reuters
+4.8% LDO.IM (Leonardo €47.46, +2.18) -- Leonardo DRS (DRS) earnings sympathy
+4.7% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £33.60, +1.55) -- Q1 operations and trading update
+4.6% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,461.50, +66.00) -- reinstated buy at Goldman Sachs; resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley
+4.3% AIRA.LN (Air Astana £5.70, +0.24) -- Q1 earnings
+4.2% ASM.NA (ASM International €437.60, +17.90) -- HSBC upgrade
+4.1% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.59, +0.06) -- Activist fund Irenic Capital said to have taken ~2% stake in SSP Group -- FT
+3.9% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €184.30, +7.10) -- completes acquisition of Aurexia
+2.5% WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen NOK76.65, +1.90) -- completes sale of MIRRA
+2.4% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £25.07, +0.58) -- Q1 earnings
+1.5% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €8.33, +0.13) -- Stifel upgrade
+0.8% RTW.LN (RTW Biotech Opportunities £1.25, +0.01) -- portfolio update
+0.5% PSON.LN (Pearson £11.49, +0.06) -- trading updatex
Notable Decliners
-75.9% DDRIL.NO (Dolphin Drilling AS NOK0.43, -1.73) -- DnB Markets downgrade
-17.4% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €36.04, -7.38) -- lowers FY guidance
-6.5% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €93.12, -6.28) -- Q1 revenue
-5.7% SRP.FP (SRP Groupe €0.57, -0.03) -- Oddo downgrade
-4.7% TFI.FP (TF1 €8.11, -0.40) -- Q1 earnings
-4.0% SCHO.DC (Schouw & Co DKK574.00, -24.00) -- Q1 earnings; DKK 120M share buyback
-3.9% AED.BB (Aedifica €68.25, -2.75) -- Aedifica proposes voluntary conditional exchange offer on all shares of Cofinimmo
-3.5% RED.SM (Redeia Corporacion €17.87, -0.65) -- BofA downgrade
-2.5% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £3.41, -0.09) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
-1.9% SMCRT.NO (SmartCraft NOK25.20, -0.50) -- CEO to step down
-0.3% BAS.GR (BASF SE €43.87, -0.14) -- Q1 earnings
-0.2% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £0.00, -0.00) -- EnQuest Plc confirms it does not intend to make a firm offer for Serica
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: Stabilus (STM.GR)
France: Coface (COFA.FP)
Nordics: Intea Fastigheter (INTEA.B.SS), Ratos (RATO.B.SS), AlzeCure Pharma (ALZCUR.SS), Fenix Outdoor International (FOI.B.SS), BW Energy (BWE.NO), Etteplan (ETTE.FH), AMSC (AMSC.NO), Oma Savings Bank (OMASP.FH)
Southern Europe: Prosegur Cash (CASH.SM)
UK: CRH (CRH.LN)
Other: Enerjisa Enerji (ENJSA.E.TI)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Exasol (EXL.GR)
France: Elis (ELIS.FP), Rubis (RUI.FP)
Sales: Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Manufacturing PMI Apr
Sweden 54.2 vs consensus 53.1 and prior revised 53.8 from 53.6
Spain 48.1 vs consensus 50.0 and prior 49.5
Italy 49.3 vs consensus 47.0 and prior 46.6
France 48.7 vs preliminary 48.2
Germany 48.4 vs preliminary 48.0
Eurozone 49.9 PMI vs preliminary 48.7
Eurozone
Mar Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 6.1% and prior revised to 6.2% from 6.1%
Apr Preliminary CPI +2.2% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and prior +2.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 25): ($0.93) or (1.57%) to $58.31
€-$ +0.0044 or +0.39% to 1.1335
£-$ +0.0017 or +0.13% to 1.3295
€-£ +0.0021 to 0.8525
S&P 500 +1.16% Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.26%
DAX: +15.81%
CAC: +5.33%
MIB: +12.00%
Stoxx 600: +5.67%
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