May 08 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed after giving back earlier gains. Italy +1.7%, Austria +1.2%, Germany +1.0% led outperformers whilst Belgium (1.2%) and Switzerland (0.4%) led underperformers.
Focus on US-UK potential trade agreement. The Telegraph reported the US will cut tariffs on UK-made cars to 10% as part of a trade deal with the UK. The US and UK also agreed to slash tariffs on beef imports and exports to close to zero, though Britain will not allow hormone-treated beef into the UK. The report also said the initial agreements come ahead of what both sides home will be a comprehensive trade deal in the coming months
Meanwhile, mixed takeaways from Fed's hold decision with statement noting increased uncertainties about economic outlook. Also include new comment about increased risk of higher unemployment and inflation, reinforcing concerns about both sides of dual mandate. Chair Powell noted cases in which rates could fall, but reiterated patience stance amid uncertainty which side of the dual mandate will deteriorate first. CME's FedWatch shows markets pricing in 57% chance of July rate cut.
In central bank updates in Europe, BoE cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% in a 5-4 vote split. Two members wanted larger 50 bps move, while two backed a steady hand. Riksbank left policy on hold and signaled potential rate cuts ahead. Norges Bank left policy unchanged, as expected. BoE tipped to cut rates by 25 bps. In other macro news, UK RICS house price balance hit a nine-month low as activity slowed following tax changes in April. However, the Halifax house price measures came in firmer than expected. German industrial production beat expectations after yesterday's upside surprise in factory orders. Meanwhile, Politico reported that France is digging in their heels over concessions they want the UK to accept in return for reset in relations. UK PM Starmer talks up defense dividend in VE Day speech.
In corporate news, Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) reporting final Q2 numbers. Heidelberg Materials (HEI.GR) reported Q1 RCO €235M vs consensus €207.0M and confirmed 2025 guidance. Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR) confirmed prelim Q1 earnings as per 29-Apr update and confirmed FY25 guidance. Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW), Adecco Group (ADEN.SW), Aurubis (NDA.GR), Puma (PUM.GR), FORVIA HELLA (HLE.GR) also updated investors. In the Benelux, Solvay (SOLB.BB) reported Q1 Underlying EBIT €172M vs consensus €165.0M; expects to reach lower half of FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance range. Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB) reports Q1 Underlying EPS $0.81 vs consensus $0.73 and confirmed FY outlook. Out of the Nordics, Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Zealand Pharma (ZEAL.DC), Genmab (GMAB.DC) and ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC) updated investors with their latest numbers. In the UK, Centrica (CNA.LN) issued AGM statement; reaffirms 2025 full year adjusted operating profit guidance ranges. On M&A front, Nestle (NESN.SW) has reportedly hired Rothschild as advisor to consult on sale of its water division later this year.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Ind Goods & Svcs +2.01%, Technology +1.64%, Travel & Leisure +1.58%, Retail +1.57%, Banks +1.55%, Autos & Parts +1.31%, Energy+1.11%, Consumer Products and Services +0.81%, Chemicals +0.53%, Financial Svcs +0.47%
Underperformers
Utilities (2.01%), Health Care (1.52%), Real Estate (1.37%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.94%), Telecom (0.75%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.37%), Insurance (0.29%), Basic Resources +0.02%, Media +0.24%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
Bank of England expected to cut interest rates and slash growth forecast - The Telegraph
Sweden Avoids Rate Cut for Now But Shifts Stance Toward Easing - Bloomberg
EU
EU urged to force Big Tech to vet financial ads for scams - FT
EU capitals want retaliation against Trump delayed to avoid Nato clash - FT
EU to Reveal US Goods It Would Hit With Tariffs - Bloomberg
Commission consults on possible countermeasures and readies WTO litigation in response to US tariffs - release
The Netherlands pivots on Israel as it asks for EU-Israel trade deal review - Euronews
UK
France
How Macron is playing hardball as UK's Starmer strives for EU reset - Politico
Germany
German companies are gearing up for the customs dispute - Handelsblatt
This is what the new digital ministry should look like - Handelsbaltt
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+35.1% EBUS.NA (Ebusco Holding €0.33, +0.11) -- Gotion's shareholding in company has increased to 10%
+28.2% BIG.LN (Big Technologies £0.83, +0.22) -- new CEO and CFO
+18.6% RSW.LN (Renishaw £25.95, +4.25) -- trading update
+18.4% HNL.GR (Dr. Hönle €9.18, +1.52) -- Q2 earnings
+17.5% RUG.SS (Rugvista Group SEK57.60, +8.80) -- Q1 earnings
+16.6% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.87, +0.13) -- Q1 earnings; raises FY guidance; CFO to leave
+12.0% AERO.SW (Montana Aerospace CHF18.40, +2.06) -- Q1 earnings
+9.9% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.34, +0.03) -- selected by Uniper for their 120MW Humber H2ub project
+9.8% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK0.21, +0.02) -- Q1 earnings
+8.8% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £2.35, +0.19) -- PSC consolidation agreement
+8.2% SINCH.SS (Sinch SEK27.30, +1.94) -- Q1 earnings
+7.6% HOLM.B.SS (Holmen SEK396.40, +28.60) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £1.70, +0.12) -- trading update
+7.3% LORD.LN (Lords Group Trading £0.29, +0.02) -- FY earnings
+6.9% MOBA.NO (Morrow Bank NOK12.15, +0.80) -- Q1 earnings
+6.0% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK86.30, +4.90) -- Q1 earnings
+5.9% ITECH.SS (I-Tech SEK100.00, +5.40) -- Q1 earnings
+5.8% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins €22.64, +1.24) -- Q1 earnings
+5.7% GFTU.LN (Grafton Group £9.69, +0.53) -- trading update
+5.2% PUM.GR (Puma €24.16, +1.22) -- Q1 earnings
+5.1% IMI.LN (IMI £18.66, +0.92) -- trading update
+5.1% SFL.IM (Safilo Group €0.81, +0.04) -- Q1 earnings
+4.9% ITH.LN (Ithaca Energy £1.37, +0.06) -- reinstated buy at BofA
+4.9% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK1,810.50, +83.50) -- Q1 earnings
+4.6% FRACTL.SS (Fractal Gaming Group SEK37.50, +1.60) -- Q1 earnings
+4.4% C3RY.GR (Cherry €0.90, +0.04) -- to sell the hygienic input devices business to Contour Design Nordic A/S for an initial ~ €12.5M
+4.4% NSIS.B.DC (Novonesis DKK440.30, +18.60) -- Q1 earnings
+4.2% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €15.69, +0.69) -- Q1 earnings
+4.0% APOTEA.SS (Apotea SEK96.75, +3.54) -- Q1 earnings
+3.8% BSL.GR (Basler €9.59, +0.35) -- Q1 earnings
+3.4% BPE.IM (BPER Banca €7.66, +0.25) -- Q1 earnings
+2.6% ROVI.SM (Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. €54.10, +1.35) -- Q1 earnings
+2.5% LDO.IM (Leonardo €0.00, +1.21) -- Q1 earnings
+2.3% CEMAT.DC (Cemat DKK0.00, +0.02) -- acquires right of perpetual usufruct to land plot in Bielany, Warsaw
+2.2% SMIN.LN (Smiths Group £0.00, +0.42) -- Smiths Group kicks off break-up with move to sell £1B electrical connectors unit -- FT, citing sources
+1.7% ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics €0.00, +0.04) -- awarded grant
+1.5% NORSE.NO (Norse Atlantic NOK0.00, +0.10) -- completes IndiGo wet-lease agreement with two more aircraft
+1.1% MCM.SM (Miquel y Costas & Miquel €0.00, +0.15) -- Q1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-35.1% NTI.NO (Norsk Titanium NOK1.28, -0.68) -- prelim Q1 revenue
-13.4% MNTC.SS (Mentice SEK16.80, -2.65) -- Q1 earnings
-13.2% MTC.LN (Mothercare £0.02, -0.00) -- trading update
-12.2% TRUE.B.SS (Truecaller SEK67.90, -9.15) -- Q1 earnings
-10.9% ACTI.SS (Active Biotech SEK0.09, -0.01) -- Q1 earnings
-9.8% TBCG.LN (TBC Bank Group £42.75, -4.75) -- Q1 earnings
-9.5% SOLB.BB (Solvay €30.40, -3.20) -- Q1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-8.4% ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma DKK430.20, -37.60) -- Q1 earnings
-8.4% AAF.LN (Airtel Africa £1.56, -0.14) -- FY earnings
-8.1% ACAD.SS (AcadeMedia SEK77.90, -6.80) -- Q3 earnings
-8.0% GFT.GR (GFT Technologies €23.55, -2.00) -- Q1 earnings
-7.6% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.47, -0.12) -- AGM statement
-7.4% AZT.NO (ArcticZymes Technologies NOK15.00, -1.20) -- Q1 earnings
-7.2% MRX.GR (Mister Spex €1.47, -0.11) -- Q1 earnings
-6.7% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK13.38, -0.97) -- Q1 earnings
-6.6% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £0.24, -0.02) -- trading update
-6.4% SECU.B.SS (Securitas SEK139.35, -9.60) -- Q1 earnings
-6.3% SAX.GR (Stroeer SE & Co. KGaA €49.65, -3.25) -- Q1 earnings
-6.1% KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers NOK56.90, -3.70) -- Q1 earnings
-5.5% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK0.00, -74.50) -- Q1 earnings
-5.4% ELE.SM (Endesa €25.75, -1.43) -- Goldman Sachs and Oddo downgrades
-5.2% FFARM.NA (ForFarmers €4.06, -0.22) -- Q1 earnings
-5.0% NKR.NO (Nekkar NOK9.74, -0.55) -- Q1 earnings
-4.6% PHO.NO (PhotoCure NOK49.90, -2.40) -- Q1 earnings
-4.4% FRP.LN (FRP Advisory Group £1.32, -0.06) -- trading update
-4.4% AMS.SM (Amadeus IT Group €67.98, -3.12) -- Q1 earnings
-4.2% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €3.15, -0.14) -- Q1 earnings
-3.7% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.09, -0.00) -- trading update; new CFO
-3.0% SAFH00.GR (SAF-HOLLAND €16.22, -0.50) -- Q1 earnings
-2.9% VEI.NO (Veidekke NOK143.40, -4.40) -- Q1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Proximus (PROX.BB), bpost (BPOST.BB)
DACHs: Commerzbank (CBK.GR), Bechtle (BC8.GR), Krones (KRN.GR), PNE (PNE3.GR), Stratec (SBS.GR), Sonova Holding (SOON.SW)
Denmark: NKT (NKT.DC), Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC), Solar (SOLAR.B.DC)
Greece: Alpha Services & Holdings (ALPHA.GA)
Italy: Mediobanca (MB.IM), Banca Generali (BGN.IM), Piaggio & C (PIA.IM), RCS Mediagroup (RCS.IM), Banca Sistema (BST.IM), Aeffe (AEF.IM)
Norway: Orkla (ORK.NO), Aker (AKER.NO), TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. (TGS.NO), Bonheur (BONHR.NO), MediStim (MEDI.NO), AKVA Group (AKVA.NO)
Capman (CAPMAN.FH)
Portugal: EDP-Energias de Portugal (EDP.PL), Sonaecom SGPS (SNC.PL)
Spain: Logista Integral (LOG.SM), Laboratorio Reig Jofre (RJF.SM)
Sweden: Bergman & Beving (BERG.B.SS), RaySearch Laboratories (RAY.B.SS), Bonava (BONAV.B.SS), Catella (CAT.B.SS), Implantica (IMP.A.SS), Profoto Holding (PRFO.SS), Duroc (DURC.B.SS)
UK: International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN)
Other: MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas (MOL.HB), Turkcell (TCELL.E.TI)
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Mar Manufacturing Production (3.2%) m/m vs consensus (2.8%) and prior revised +3.7% from +5.1%
Germany Mar Trade Balance €21.1B vs consensus €19.1B and prior revised €18.0B from €17.7B
Norway Mar Manufacturing Production 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior +1.4%
UK Apr Halifax House Price Index +3.2% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and prior revised +2.9% from +2.8%
Spain Mar Industrial Production +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior (1.9%)
Ireland Apr CPI +2.2% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and prior +2.0%; +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 25): +$1.62 or +2.79% to $59.69
€-$ (0.0032) or (0.28%) to 1.1272
£-$ +0.0008 or +0.06% to 1.3299
S&P +0.96%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +4.39%
DAX: +17.30%
CAC: +4.25%
MIB: +13.99%
Stoxx 600: +5.52%
STOXX Europe 600 sectors
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