May 15 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a lower open mirroring lower session in Asia overnight and US futures weaker after hours. US dollar a smidge weaker, yen strengthening, AUD higher for a time after jobs report since settled back. Treasury and JGB yields a touch higher. Crude blends sharply lower on positive Iran nuclear sentiment. Precious metals also lower on improved market sentiment, base metals mixed.
Nothing particularly incremental on trade. USTR Greer in South Korea for APEC meetings where he is expected to meet with Asian trade ministers. US-China tariff de-escalation has been the big development this week with China also winding back non-tariff actions against US. Iran's top advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei, in an interview, says country is ready to sign nuclear agreement with President Trump, representing clearest indication yet from Iran on its expectations and willingness to reach a deal.
On the agenda for today in Europe, in central banks, ECB's Cipollone speaks at France Payments Forum. BOE's Dhingra speech at the New Economics Foundation conf. Bank of Italy's Brandolini, Deputy Head of the Dept. of Economics and Statistics, is speaking before the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry at 11:30CET into the economic and social effects of the ongoing demographic transition. ECB's de Guindos speech at 12:15CET at AGM organised by ISDA. ECB's Cipollone, Bank of France's Villeroy fireside chat at 13:30CET at Digital Currency II Conf. Bank of Portugal releases its latest Official Bulletin. IEA monthly report. In UK, following questions on transport, MPs hold a general debate on solar farms. Council of the Baltic Sea States will hold its Ministerial Session in Estonia (through Fri).
On the macro calendar for today, UK Q1 preliminary GDP, Mar industrial/manufacturing production, construction output, trade balance are due at 7:00 BST, followed by France Apr final CPI at 7:45 BST, Switzerland Apr PPI at 7:30 BST. Eurozone Q1 GDP (2nd estimate), Mar industrial production are released at 10:00 BST.
Another busy morning for earnings; of note, out of DACHs, Siemens AG (SIE.GR) reports better-than-expected Q2 numbers with EPS pre-PPA €3.00 vs consensus €2.52 and confirms FY outlook. Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR) reports Q1 adj net income ahead at €2.44B ex-items vs FactSet €2.21B but Adjusted EBITDA was a miss at €11.30B ex-items vs FactSet €12.67B; group, however, raised its guidance for FY25. Allianz (ALV.GR) also posted Q1 numbers and said it was fully on track to achieve FY outlook. In France, ENGIE (ENGI.FP) reported strong Q1 EBITDA of €5.40B vs consensus €4.75B and confirmed FY25 guidance.
Politics/Macro/World News
Putin, Trump to skip Ukraine's peace talks that Russian leader proposed - Reuters
Denmark rethinking 40-year nuclear power ban amid Europe-wide shift - The Guardian
Iran says prepared to sign nuclear deal with Trump in return for lifting of sanctions - NBC News
Netherlands Apr Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs consensus 3.8% and prior 3.9%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
SIE.GR (Siemens AG) -- Q2 EPS pre-PPA €3.00 vs consensus €2.52; FY Outlook confirmed
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- Q1 EBITDA €5.40B vs consensus €4.75B; FY25 guidance confirmed
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- Q1 adjusted net income €2.44B ex-items vs FactSet €2.21B
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- Q1 EPS pre one-time items €2.12 vs consensus €2.17; integrates macroeconomic impact into guidance
RWE.GR (RWE) -- Q1 adj net income €498M vs consensus €473M; FY25 outlook and divi target of €1.20/share confirmed
KBC.BB (KBC Group) -- Q1 EPS €1.32 vs consensus €1.28; reaffirms FY guidance; agrees to acquire 365.bank
UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- FY non-IFRS EPS (€0.56) vs FactSet (€0.27) [8 est, (€0.45)-(0.03)]; guides Q1 and FY25/26
WUC.GR (Lithium Argentina AG) -- Q1 EPS (€0.04) vs year-ago (€0.06)
ALV.GR (Allianz) -- Q1 core net income €2.55B vs consensus €2.72B; fully on track to achieve its FY outlook
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- Q2 EPS €0.25 vs FactSet €0.38 [2 est, €0.20-0.56]; confirms FY guidance
NCH2.GR (thyssenkrupp nucera) -- Q2 EPS (€0.03) vs FactSet €0.00 [2 est, €0.00-0.00]; confirms forecast for fiscal year 2024/2025
PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- Q1 adj net income (€44M) vs year-ago €38M; comments on FY25 outlook following sale of Verivox
DOU.GR (Douglas) -- Q2 net income (€19.0M) vs FactSet (€10.1M) [2 est, (€14)-(6.2M)]; confirms guidance for 2024/25
VK.FP (Vallourec) -- Q1 revenue €991M vs FactSet €977.0M [1 est]
HAFNI.NO (Hafnia) -- Q1 EPS $0.13 vs FactSet $0.14 [8 est, $0.12-0.16]; geopolitical landscape remains complex and has potential to impact markets significantly
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- Q1 CORE turnover CHF3.11B vs StreetAccount CHF2.97B
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- Q1 EPS €0.31 ex-items vs FactSet €0.29 [2 est, €0.29-0.29]; FY guidance confirmed
ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik) -- FY EPS €1.86 vs year-ago (€1.39); no divi and guides Q1
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- Q1 revenue €221.1M vs consensus €222.1M
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- Q1 adjusetd EPS €1.80 vs consensus €1.82
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- Q1 net income €127.2M vs consensus €124M; confirms FY guidance
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- Total Paris Aeroport April traffic 9.3M, +6.0% y/y
CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- Q1 EPS SEK3.29 vs FactSet SEK2.91 [4 est, SEK2.66-3.15]; reaffirms FY guidance
AFG.NO (AF Gruppen) -- Q1 EPS NOK1.27 vs FactSet NOK1.39 [3 est, NOK1.28-1.45]
BVHN.SW (SKAN) -- still expects net sales to grow at an annual rate in the mid- to upper teens -- CMD (
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- Q1 AUM €27.54B, +9% vs year-ago €25.38B
TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien) -- Q1 FFO I €0.26 vs FactSet €0.25
ANE.SM (Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables) -- Q1 trading update: Total Production +5.4% y/y to 7,408 GWh
CEC.GR (CECONOMY) -- Q2 EPS (€0.08) vs year-ago €0.17
AGR.LN (Assura) -- FY Trading Update: expects to report FY EPRA NTA to 50.4p/share vs year-ago 49.3p/share
OET.NO (Okeanis Eco Tankers) -- Q1 EPS $0.36 ex-items vs FactSet $0.35 [5 est, $0.24-0.41]
DEQ.GR (Deutsche EuroShop) -- Q1 FFO per share €0.51 vs year-ago €0.55; confirms FY guidance
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- Q1 EPS NOK1.56 vs FactSet NOK0.99 [10 est, NOK0.88-1.25]
AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood) -- Q1 adj EPS NOK2.70 vs FactSet NOK3.16 [8 est, NOK2.08-4.30]
GDS.FP (Ramsay Générale de Santé) -- 9M net income (€54.2M) vs year-ago (€20.6M)
ADOC.FP (Adocia) -- Q1 revenue €0.4M vs year-ago €0.0M
HTG.GR (HomeToGo) -- Q1 adj EBITDA (€28.0M), (31.8%) y/y
M&A
ENI.IM (Eni) -- signs exclusivity agreement signed with Ares Alternative Credit Management for the potential sale of 20% of Plenitude
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- provides update on Brazil minority shareholders' elected form of consideration
ENG.SM (Enagas) -- Enagás closes sale of its stake in the Mexican company Estación de Compresión Soto La Marina in Mexico
RRTL.GR (RTL Group) -- Dutch competition regulator ACM close to approving RTL Group's proposed sale of RTL Nederland to DPG Media subject to conditions - FD
EKI.FP (Ekinops) -- acquires Olfeo, a cybersecurity software provider for businesses; terms undisclosed
GMI.SW (Groupe Minoteries) --- to acquire Schweizerische Schälmühle E. Zwicky AG; terms undisclosed
ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy) -- provides update on search for buyer
Apollo, Macquarie, GIP among parties interested in minority stake in TenneT's German division - Reuters (14-May, 11:55 ET)
Healthcare
ABBV (AbbVie) -- FDA approves AbbVie's "internally developed" antibody-drug conjugate Emrelis
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- NICE recommends AstraZeneca's Truqap with fulvestrant to treat hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative advanced breast cancer after endocrine treatment
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- to invest at least $20B in the US through 2030, growing investments in science and expanding domestic manufacturing
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- announces oral presentations at EHA and ICML 2025
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- SEC filing: 10-K/A
HPHA.GR (Heidelberg Pharma) -- to present clinical data on HDP-101 at EHA 2025
Other
KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel) -- signs MoUs with 14 airlines for air freight carrier engagement sustainability programme
AMS.SM (Amadeus IT Group) -- resumes Buy-back Programme I
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- reaches agreement with employee representative committees on framework regulations for job reductions up to 2028
Key rating changes
Upgrades:
BRBY.LN (Burberry Group) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
SMHN.GR (SÜSS MicroTec) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
Downgrades:
ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
NN.NA (NN Group) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
UCG.IM (UniCredit) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
BRBY.LN (Burberry Group) --to hold from buy at Deutsche Numis
COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial) -- to underperform from market perform at Bernstein
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
FORN.SW (Forbo Holding) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations:
AAD.GR (Amadeus FiRe) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
GBG.LN (GB Group) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei (0.95%) to 37766.41
Hang Seng (0.83%) to 23443.74
Shanghai Composite (0.62%) to 3382.72
S&P futures (21.3) vs prior close of 5908.5
€-$ +0.0020 or +0.18% to 1.1195
$-¥ (0.75) or (0.51%) to 146.00
€-¥ (0.55) or (0.34%) to 163.43
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