May 28 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly lower Wednesday but within a narrow band. Steepest losses were in Hong Kong and Shenzhen while there was a modest fall in Australia. Japan's two main boards, Taiwan and Shanghai all ended flat. South Korea's Kospi gained on an outperformance in SK group stocks, more gains for Singapore. US European futures soft, European markets opened with small gains. US dollar rallied early before falling back to the flatline, most Asia currencies rallying late on. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also higher again post another disappointing auction this morning. Crude prices higher, precious metals a little stronger too. Industrial metals mixed.
Asia markets in a quiet session Wednesday as investors continue to wait for the next big catalyst. Any run at a rally quickly snuffed out by ongoing concerns in the bond market with a lackluster 40-year JGB sale adding to the angst, while selloffs met several technical support levels. US futures lower for now as markets wait for Nvidia's earnings later today as well as developments on US tax cuts and tariff negotiations.
In regional developments, the sale of 40-year Japan government bonds saw the weakest demand in almost two years, sending yields higher across JGBs and having a modest spillover effect on Treasuries. Separately, BoJ Governor Ueda warned super-long dated yield volatility could impact shorter-term borrowing costs and thus the broader economy. The RBNZ cut its base interest rate 25 bps as widely expected although it surprised by revealing the board had discussed a no-change option. The news supported the New Zealand dollar while domestic equities sold off sharply. Australia April CPI was unchanged, against expectations, while the RBA's preferred trimmed mean reading ticked higher.
Nissan Motor (7201.JP) is planning to issue up to ¥630B in convertible instruments and bonds and use a syndicated loan with a UK Export Finance guarantee. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) is its expected to close its acquisition of US Steel (X) for $55 per share with the US government receiving a golden share. Taiyo Holdings (4626.JP) has received a buyout proposal from two companies including private equity group KKR. Tencent (700.HK) is set to become the second-largest shareholder in SM Entertainment (041510.KS) after Hybe (352820.KS) sold it a KRW243B ($177M) stake. SK Innovation's (096770.KS) CEO resigned due personal reasons; several SK group names including the parent company SK Inc (034730.KS) saw their share prices rise substantially.
Digest:
JGB 40-year auction softer than expected:
JGB 40-year auction resulted in highest accepted yield of 3.135%, the highest on records since 2007, above the expected range of 3.07~3.11% (Nikkei). Bid-to-cover was 2.21, below 2.92 in the prior auction and the lowest since Jul-24. Follows yesterday's dramatic rally in superlongs following reports that MOF sent questionnaires to market participants to gauge feedback on the desired size of FY25 bond issuance across tenors ahead of a primary dealer meeting slated for 20-Jun, which triggered speculation that superlong sales will be pared. Reuters sources affirmed this is under consideration by the ministry. Reuters also noted that attention turns to potential issuance tweaks and how much would be considered as meaningful by the market. Sources noted that lowering the burden on superlong sectors would be counterbalanced by increased sales of shorter tenors, leaving overall FY issuance at JPY172.3T. Societe Generale suggested MOF may look to pre-Covid levels of super-long supply, which would be about JPY3T less than current levels. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda told parliament Wednesday that volatility in superlongs could have ripple effects on shorter tenors which are tied more to economic activity and will be carefully watched (Reuters).
RBNZ cuts interest rates but debated whether to hold:
RBNZ cut official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bp to 3.25% as expected. Main surprise was Committee having debated whether to hold rate steady to assess impact of policy uncertainty on household and firm behavior. Updated OCR track modeled new terminal rate of 2.85% rate from early 2026(vs 3.14% previously), implying at least one more rate cut amid disinflationary effect of negative output gap. At press conference, chief economist Conway said OCR now close to neutral (Bloomberg). On balance, RBNZ anticipates tariffs will reduce growth and inflation. However, stressed heightened uncertainty around that outlook given upside risk to medium-term inflation but downside risks via lower import prices. Few surprises from economic projections with CPI inflation seen temporarily rising to 2.7% in Q3 (due to volatile tradeables components) before returning to 1.9% target midpoint from 2026. New Zealand economy recovering with full effects of past OCR cuts yet to be fully realized while export demand has been stronger than expected. However, economy still operating with significant spare capacity with RBNZ downgrading 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.5% from 1.8% amid global headwinds.
India offers US deep tariff cuts but maintaining hard line on sensitive agricultural products:
FT sources noted India has offered US "very deep" tariff cuts as part of bilateral trade agreement. However, proposals appear to fall short of Trump's claim that India offered to reduce tariffs to practically zero (Bloomberg). India signaling some flexibility on less sensitive agricultural products such as almonds and may reduce tariffs on US oil and gas to 2.5-3.0%. But sources say Delhi seeking to retain higher levies on sensitive agricultural products such as rice and dairy products, which are subject to tariffs of 70-80% and 30-60% respectively. India also pushing US to cut tariffs on labor-intensive goods. India Commerce Minster Piyush Goyal described "constructive meeting" with Commerce Secretary Lutnick during last week's trade talks. Two sides have been in discussions about a multi-tranche trade deal and targeting an interim agreement before July when reciprocal tariff pause expires (Bloomberg). However, India said to have taken more assertive stance in talks following US backdown on China tariffs, having threatened retaliation against some US goods in response to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.
Nippon Steel expected to close acquisition of US Steel for $55/sh:
CNBC sources indicated Nippon Steel (5401.JP) is expected to close its acquisition of US Steel (X) for $55 per share, the price Nippon originally made before the deal was blocked in January. Follows President Trump's approval of the deal last Friday, describing it as a "partnership" and later said it was an "investment" and "partial ownership." Pennsylvania Senator Dave McCormick told CNBC on Tuesday that US Steel will have an American CEO and a majority of its board members will be from the US. Added the deal will include a national security agreement signed with the US government with a "golden share" that will essentially require US government approval of a number of the board members and that will allow the US to ensure production levels aren't cut. McCormick confirmed Nippon's $14B investment includes $2.4B for US Steel operations at Mon Valley outside Pittsburgh, which will save 10K jobs in Pennsylvania and add another 10K jobs in construction to add another arc furnace. Nippon Steel will have board members, and the US Steel operations will be part of their overall corporate structure, enabling access to the US market.
China post-close earnings highlights -- Xiaomi beats, PDD struggles:
Notable post-close earnings were mixed. Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q1 headline metrics were broadly better than FactSet consensus, largely owing to IoT and lifestyle products segment. Most of the attention went to its burgeoning EV business, where net loss narrowed to CNY500M from CNY700M in the prior quarter and outlook pinned on the YU7 electric SUV to commence sales as early as July (Bloomberg). But new market entrants have met stiff price competition from incumbents such as market leader BYD (1211.HK). In contrast, PDD (PDD) Q1 headlines missed notably. Management cited profitability drag from investments into platform ecosystem amid "rapid changes in the external environment" and signaled the possibility this will continue. Analysts specified US tariffs as the likely catalyst, combined with intense local competition (Reuters). Vulnerability also accentuated by its low-price strategy, subject to US tariff volatility surrounding the de minimis exemption affecting Temu, alongside sensitivity to sluggish domestic demand weighed down by the ongoing property market slump. Takeaways noted PDD lagged behind rivals Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK).
Notable Gainers:
+19.1% 4626.JP (Taiyo Holdings): confirms receipt of various proposals following report that KKR is among firms offering to acquire the company; notes no decisions have been made
+11% 6135.JP (Makino Milling Machine Co.): confirms that it has received legally binding acquisition proposal from MBK Partners
+5.9% 1024.HK (Kuaishou Technology): reports Q1 earnings; adjusted net income CNY4.58B vs FactSet CNY4.47B
+5.9% 096770.KS (SK Innovation): CEO Park Sang-Gyu reportedly to resign; company to appoint SK Inc. CEO Jang Yong-ho as president and president of SK Innovation E&S as CEO
+3.7% 5232.JP (Sumitomo Osaka Cement): Aya Murakami, daughter of activist Yoshiaki Murakami, reveals 1.5% stake at company's AGM
+0.4% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): reports Q1 earnings; adjusted net income CNY10.68B vs FactSet CNY9.48B
Notable Decliners:
-9.6% 9698.HK (GDS Holdings): upsized $500M convertible senior notes offering due 2032 priced
-5.9% 8848.JP (Leopalace21): lowers H1 and FY net income attributable guidance
-1.5% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): reportedly weighs offering US government "golden shares" in US Steel transaction
-0.3% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): reportedly seeking to raise more than ¥1T ($7B) in debt and asset sales
Data:
Economic:
Australia
April CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and +2.4% in March
Trimmed mean CPI +2.8% y/y vs +2.7% in March
Q1 construction work done 0.0% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and revised +0.9% in Q4
Markets:
Nikkei: (1.71) or (0.00%) to 37722.40
Hang Seng: (123.68) or (0.53%) to 23258.31
Shanghai Composite: (0.76) or (0.02%) to 3339.93
Shenzhen Composite: (5.58) or (0.28%) to 1965.45
ASX200: (10.70) or (0.13%) to 8396.90
KOSPI: 32.93 or +1.25% to 2670.15
SENSEX: (144.88) or (0.18%) to 81406.75
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.25) or (0.18%) to 144.1020
$-KRW: (5.21) or (0.38%) to 1370.5800
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.08%) to 0.6439
$-INR: +0.04 or +0.04% to 85.3945
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 7.1898
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