Jun 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended the day mixed, and slightly below their best levels of the session, as a late rally pushed shares out of the trading range they had been in from the open
Pan-European indices opened slightly lower and remained range-bound through the session with early levels proving a cap on any paring of losses, until the last rally of the day.
Denmark +1.7% and Norway +0.6% led outperformers whilst Greece and Netherlands both (0.5%) led underperformers.
In central banks, Riksbank's Thedéen discussed monetary policy communication in practice at Swedish Economic Assn's annual meeting (speech, slides). Slovakia central bank released its latest Financial Stability Report. Upcoming, Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib speech at 18:00CET title "Crypto-assets - The Future of Finance?" at event hosted by Allied European Financial Markets Assn. Deutschland the same time as Balz is a panellist at event organised by ikf. ECB's Lagarde video message at 18:30CET at event organised by Assn. Europe-Finances-Régulations. BOE's Mann fireside chat at 22:30BST at Federal Reserve Board of Governors IF 75th anniversary conf.
International Labour Organization (ILO) Annual Meeting continues through the week.
Istanbul hosted a second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The talks lasted just under an hour (AP, Reuters), and come after both sides stepped up attacks over the weekend. (Sky News)
Elsewhere, Germany's Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin's held Capital Markets Conf. On the political front, Norway's PM Støre participated in a meeting with Nordic, Baltic and Eastern European allies in Lithuania whilst Norway's finance minister Stoltenberg spoke on the topic "How does the international unrest affect us here at home?" at the Tromsø Region Chamber of Commerce.
In UK, MPs returned from last week's recess, with PM announcing some elements of the government's strategic defence review, the defence minister laying out the full details of the review to MPs this afternoon. This is ahead of an expected series of major policy reviews this month, and will also increase the focus on Chancellor Reece's spending review (due on 11-Jun).
EU holds 11th Energy Infrastructure Forum (through Tue), participants include EU's Jørgensen. EU's Roswell addresses event hosted by the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, others, title 'The new geopolitical map and the EU's path'. EU's von der Leyen receives the Politikaward 2025. Amongst other events there's Hamburg Sustainability Conf (through Tue) includes speech by finance minister Klingbeil on Tue.
Economic data was dominated by May manufacturing PMIs from across the region and also saw better than expected Swiss Q1 GDP and Portugal unemployment data, whilst UK mortgage approvals disappointed vs consensus expectations.
IATA's semi-annual update Airline Outlook now sees 2025 net profits of $36B vs prior forecast $36.6B.
May new car registrations releases included France (12.3%) y/y and Spain +18.6% y/y, with Italy due later.
M&A news flow included Sanofi (SAN.FP) to acquire Blueprint Medicines for $129/share, representing total equity value (including potential CVR payments) of ~$9.5B. Mediobanca (MB.IM) comments on Banca Generali's (BGN.IM) offer; confirms disposal of shareholding in Generali (G.IM). Rosebank Industries (ROSE.LN) confirms that it has re-engaged in discussions with Cerberus Capital Mgmt. regarding potential transaction to acquire Electrical Components International Inc. for less than $1.9B. Qualcomm's PUSU deadline in respect of possible offer for Alphawave IP Group (AWE.LN) extended to 5-Jun. Vodafone Group (VOD.LN) and CK Hutchison complete merger of UK businesses and Synthomer (SYNT.LN) completes divestment of William Blythe for consideration of £30M. Reportedly, Castrol (BP.LN) suitors exploring offers below expected $8B range; Citic among groups showing interest.
Earnings news was particularly limited and included Gerresheimer (GXI.GR) lowering its FY25 guidance and cutting dividend proposal as well as BW Offshore (BWI.NO) reports Q1 EBITDA $91.3M vs FactSet $63.1M [3 est, $62-65M] and guides FY EBITDA $220-250M vs FactSet $298.4M [4 est, $255-407M]. At its CMD, BioArctic (BIOA.B.SS) states profitable in 2025 and expecting to remain profitable based on Leqembi royalties, sets out 2030 ambitions
Sentia (SNTIA.NO) sets an indicative price of NOK50/share for IPO through ABG Sundal Collier and DNB Carnegie, with Ratos Infra (RATO.B.SS) reducing stake in company
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Oil & Gas +1.37%, Insurance +0.67%, Health Care +0.32%, Banks +0.16%, Retail +0.10%, Utilities +0.09%, Basic Resources +0.07%, Telecom +0.04%, Chemicals (0.01%), Construct & Mtls (0.08%)
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (2.07%), Media (0.98%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.78%), Technology (0.75%), Food & Beverage (0.65%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.53%), Real Estate (0.42%), Travel & Leisure (0.40%), Financial Svcs (0.29%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU:
Brussels considering imposing extra tax on the profits of arms companies - Spiegel
Finland:
Current state of growth funding: more diversification could reduce dependence on traditional forms of financing - Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment report
France:
As Socialists' party members elect a first secretary later this week, the historic parties vie for return to two-party politics - Politico
Germany:
At mid-week meeting, Cabinet could approve measures set to simplify 'safe country of origin' classification for migrants - Tagesspiegel
Norway:
Working group has come up with 72 proposals for simplifications that could speed up housing construction - press release
Sweden:
Swedish National Debt Office and the Riksbank develop a joint approach to liquidity support for banks in resolution - release
Poland:
Rightwing candidate Karol Nawrocki wins presidential election - Guardian, euro news, The Conversation
UK:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+14.4% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical) -- Pre-IND meeting with FDA ahead of planned IND application
+8.2% BAB.LN (Babcock International Group) -- PM unveils £15B plan for more weapons factories and expansion of nuclear deterrent; Strategic Defence Review
+1.3% BA.LN (BAE Systems), +4.7% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group)
+7.4% ORX.SS (Orexo) -- to present clinical data for OX640 at the EAACI Congress
+7.0% HAG.GR (HENSOLDT) -- overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
+5.9% POLX.LN (Polarean Imaging) -- FDA approval for XENOVIEW indication to include children from six years of age
+4.3% KOA.NO (Kongsberg Automotive) -- changes to organizational and leadership structure
+4.0% ABDN.LN (Aberdeen Group) -- buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
+3.7% TRUE.B.SS (Truecaller) -- reaches two new milestones for consumer subscriptions
+2.9% D6H.GR (Datagroup) -- KKR discloses conditional offer price increase to Datagroup
+2.7% VERK.FH (Verkkokauppa.com) -- agrees sells its consumer financing business to Norion Bank (NORION.SS) for ~€34M
+2.7% DIGN.SS (Dignitana) -- Paxman holds ~95.3% of shares and votes in Dignitana after end of extended acceptance period
+2.4% HUM.SS (Humana) -- buy from hold at DNB Carnegie
+2.1% MEGP.LN (ME Group International) -- H1 trading update: PBT increased by +14%, revenue up by +2%
+2.0% AO.LN (AO World) -- provides update on acquisition of musicMagpie
+1.8% SRE.LN (Sirius Real Estate) -- FY EPS €0.08 vs FactSet €0.08 [4 est, €0.08-0.08]
+1.2% BWO.NO (BW Offshore) -- Q1 EBITDA $91.3M vs FactSet $63.1M [3 est, $62-65M]
+1.1% HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials) -- sell from neutral at CIC Market Solutions
+0.9% BYS.SW (Bystronic) -- new CFO appointment
+0.9% ALCAR.FP (Carmat) -- first commercial implants of its Aeson artificial heart outside EU
Notable Decliners
-41.8% EYE.LN (Eagle Eye Solutions Group) -- notes Neptune Retail Solutions termination of contract with annual value £9-10M; anticipates material impact on FY26 performance
-38.9% TRLS.LN (Trellus Health) -- FY EPS ($0.05) vs year-ago ($0.04)
-23.0% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- adjusts FY25 guidance downward; cuts divi to €0.04/share instead of prior
€1.25/share
-7.7% NOTE.SS (NOTE) -- initiated sell at Nordea
-4.6% STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- appoints Sébastien Jacquet as Chief Quality Officer succeeding Antonio Filosa now CEO
-3.9% BBN.SW (Bellevue Group) -- projects roughly break-even result for H1 2025 vs year-ago net profit CHF7.4M
-1.9% ATO.FP (ATOS) -- receives confirmatory offer from French State to acquire part of its former Advanced Computing business for enterprise value (EV) of €410M
-1.7% RCDO.LN (Ricardo) -- ISS recommends Ricardo shareholders to vote "FOR" the resolution to remove Mark Clare as a director and Chairman
-1.5% CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- underperform from neutral at Autonomous Research
-1.4% CHG.GR (CHAPTERS Group) -- publishes FY24 report: EPS €0.14 vs year-ago €0.28
-1.0% LOOMIS.SS (Loomis) -- completes the acquisition of Burroughs
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: Integrum (INTEG.B.SS)
UK: Pennon Group (PNN.LN), Chemring Group (CHG.LN), FD Technologies (FDP.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Quadient (QDT.FP)
UK: British American Tobacco (BATS.LN)
CMD/events: Julius Baer (BAER.SW), Kier Group (KIE.LN), A.G. BARR (BAG.LN), bpost (BPOST.BB)
Data:
Economics:
May Manufacturing PMI
Netherlands 49.0 vs consensus 48.0, prior 49.2
Russia 50.2 vs consensus 49.5, prior 49.3
Sweden 53.6 vs consensus 54.0, prior 54.2
Spain 50.5 vs consensus 48.4, prior 48.1
Switzerland 42.1 vs consensus 46.5, prior 45.8
Italy 49.2 vs consensus 49.6, prior 49.3
France 49.8 vs preliminary 49.5
Germany 48.3 vs preliminary 48.8
Eurozone 49.4 vs preliminary 48.4
Greece 53.2 vs consensus 52.9, prior 53.2
Norway 51.2 vs consensus 47.6, prior 46.2
UK 46.4 vs preliminary 45.1
UK
May
House price index +3.5% y/y vs consensus +2.9%, prior +3.4% - Nationwide release
Apr
Mortgage approvals 60.46K vs consensus 63.0K, prior revised 63.60K from 64.31K
M4 money supply 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.2%, prior +0.3%
Switzerland
Apr retail sales +1.3% y/y vs consensus +2.5%, prior revised +2.1% from +2.2%
Q1 GDP +2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.5%, prior revised +1.6% from +1.5%
Portugal:
Apr unemployment rate 6.3% vs consensus 6.5%, prior revised 6.4% from 6.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 25): +$1.78 or +2.93% to $62.57
€-$ +0.0080 or +0.70% to 1.1431
£-$ +0.0083 or +0.62% to 1.3548
€-£ +0.0006 to 0.8437
S&P 500 (0.30%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +7.36%
DAX: +20.20%
CAC: +4.83%
MIB: +16.96%
Stoxx 600: +7.94%
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