Jun 26 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed mirroring Asian equities also mixed Thursday. Korean stocks under pressure following run-up to Sep-2021 highs. Hang Seng leading China market declines amid property developer pullback. Japan outperforming, Taiwan marginally higher and Australia little changed. S&P 500 futures flat afterhours. Treasury yields down another 1-2 bp following latest Powell replacement speculation. JGB curve also flattening. Dollar extending declines against majors. Crude continues to come up from early week lows. Gold steady. Bitcoin unchanged.
Media sources noted Trump considering announcing Fed Chair Powell's successor by September or October, or potentially earlier, reflecting his increased unhappiness at Powell for not cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, trade headlines continue to roll through ahead of 9-Jul reciprocal tariff deadline.
On today's agenda, EU Leaders summit kicks off (through Fri). In UK, there's MPs questions on Transport at 9:30BST. In Germany, Bundstag debate/vote on extension of the rent control at 11:20CET as well as special depreciation tax breaks for companies. FT event at 10:30BST London Climate Week. EU's Séjourné participates in Renew Europe Leaders Summit. In Germany, Hydroverse Convention on the future of the hydrogen economy.
In central banks, at Almedalen Week, Riksbank's Thedéen speaks at 9:00CET about the economic situation at a seminar organized by Swedbank, discusses at 16:00 the economic situation with SEB's Chief Economist Jens Magnusson and Bunge participates at 15:00 in a seminar on payments and preparedness organized by VISA. BOE's Breeden panellist at 9:30BST at the CityUK annual conf, other speakers include Economic Secretary to the Treasury Reynolds 11:30, Leader of the Opposition Badenoch 12:30. BOE's Bailey speech at 12noon BST at the British Chambers of Commerce Global Annual Conf and BOE's Foulger fireside chat at 13:55BST at The Investment Assn annual policy conf. ECB's Schnabel panellist at 13:00CET at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur, and Lagarde opening speech at 20:30CET at 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele. Minutes from last Turkish central bank MPC meeting.
Macroeconomic updates include: Germany Jul consumer confidence - GfK, Sweden May trade balance, Norway May unemployment rate, UK Jun distributive trades - CBI
In corporate news, Valneva (VLA.FP) confirmed FY25 guidance whilst Trigano (TRI.FP) is out with Q3 revenue update. Still in France, Worldline (WLN.FP) CEO hosts analysts call after EIC media campaign. In the DACH region, Avolta (AVOL.SW) reaffirmed Destination 2027 medium-term outlook of organic growth +5%-7% ahead of its capital markets day. Out of the Nordics, H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) is expected to update investor with its latest numbers. In M&A developments, Shell (SHEL.LN) spokesperson noted in regard to market speculation regarding Shell considering buying BP that no talks are taking place.
CMD/events: Munich Re (MUV2.GR) meetings with management, BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) Deep Dive Commercial & Personal Banking in France 14:00BST, Avolta (AVOL.SW) 10:30CEST, IP Group (IPO.LN) 15:00BST
Politics/Macro/World News
EU leaders shift from defence to trade as Trump looms over Brussels summit - FT
Ursula von der Leyen amputates the Green Deal to save its life - Politico
Dollar Weakens as Trump Considers Naming Next Fed Chair - Bloomberg
Ireland GDP forecast 2025 +4.6% vs prior +4.1% and 2026 +2.9% vs prior +3.9% - ESRI
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- reaffirms Destination 2027 medium-term outlook of organic growth +5%-7% at capital markets day
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- confirms FY25 guidance
TRI.FP (Trigano) -- reports Q3 revenue €1.14B vs FactSet €1.22B [1 est]
ADE.GR (Bitcoin Group) -- publishes Annual Report 2024: FY EPS €0.36 vs year-ago €0.39
M&A
SHEL.LN (Shell) -- Shell spokesperson notes in regard to market speculation regarding Shell considering buying BP that no talks are taking place -- Bloomberg
BN.FP (Danone) -- acquires Akkermansia Company; terms undisclosed
ANE.SM (Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables) -- ACCIONA Energia confirms has received binding offers for a consolidated capacity of ~440 MW of mature wind assets
ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy) -- announces that Belfort Commercial Court sets deliberation date of 8-Jul for judicial reorganization process
ILTY.IM (illimity Bank) -- shareholders representing ~27.2% of the share capital terminate consultation agreement by mutual consent (post EU close 25-Jun)
Healthcare
GRF.SM (Grifols) -- FDA grants 510(k) clearance for Grifols' Erytra Eflexis
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- announces first subject screened in COMFORT toddlers supplemental safety study in peanut allergic toddlers 1-3 years old
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- announces exclusive vaccine marketing and distribution agreement for Germany with CSL Seqir
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- notes Teva becomes secondary commercialization partner for Stelara biosimilar FYB202 (ustekinumab) in Germany
Other
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- approves issuance of up to €1.5B of contingently convertible securities
RECSI.NO (REC Silicon) -- holder Water Street Capital comments on results of annual general meeting
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ENT.LN (Entain) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- to outperform from market perform at Bernstein
INPST.NA (InPost) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Downgrades
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
MRO.LN (Melrose Industries) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
BLND.LN (British Land Co.) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
AWE.LN (Alphawave IP Group) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring) -- to hold from buy at SEB
IG.IM (Italgas) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions) -- to sell from hold at Danske Bank
EXENS.FP (Exosens) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
AQ.SS (AQ Group) -- to hold from buy at SEB
Initiations
HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki) -- buy at UBS
Other Actions
IG.IM (Italgas) -- resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei +1.66% to 39587.59
Hang Seng (0.69%) to 24306.82
Shanghai Composite +0.07% to 3458.41
S&P futures +6.8 vs prior close of 6147.0
€-$ +0.0018 or +0.15% to 1.1680
$-¥ (0.47) or (0.32%) to 144.79
€-¥ (0.27) or (0.16%) to 169.08
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