Jul 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mostly higher with pan-European indices closing just below best levels. Portugal +1.5%, followed by Greece +1.1% and Spain +1.0% led the outperformers whilst Italy, Belgium both ~ (0.3%), and Switzerland (0.2%) led the underperformers.
In political developments, focus on UK fiscal policy after selloff in Gilts and sterling on Wednesday amid speculation over Chancellor Reeves' future after PM Starmer failed to give backing after U-turn on welfare reforms. Starmer has since said he is in lockstep with Reeves on policy and she will be chancellor for "a very long time to come". Gilts and sterling rise, though only made partial recovery with attention on likely fiscal repair measures needed for autumn budget.
On macro calendar, Europe saw release of final composite PMIs. Eurozone PMI revised up from flash. Final UK PMI for June showed services sector growing at the fastest rate in 10 months with a reading of 52.8 versus flash 51.3 and May's 50.9 outturn. Meanwhile, BoE monthly Decision Maker Panel survey showed year-head expectations for CPI fell 0.1% to 3.1% in three-months to June, but single month data up 0.3% to 3.3%. In addition, the ECB published an account of its June policy decision when it cut rates by 25 bps to take deposit rate to 2.00%. Decision aimed at protecting "on target" inflation projection for 2027. Policy discussions highlighted inflation projected to fall below target for a period in 2026. Was recalled market curve conditioned on June rate cut of 25 bps and total of 50 bps by year-end. Minutes said most measures of underlying inflation suggested medium-term inflation would settle around 2%. Highlighted elevated uncertainty could weaken transmission of monetary policy. Added strong euro contributed to downward pressure on headline inflation forecast and also seen as a headwind for exports.
In corporate news, Redcare Pharmacy (RDC.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR) and Aperam (APAM.NA) issued prelim Q2 updates, whilst All for One Group (A1OS.GR) adjusted FY25 guidance downward and announced €7M buyback. In the UK, Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG.LN) published broadly in-line FY25 results and issued FY26 guidance. Currys (CURY.LN) traded higher post final FY earnings with group reporting trading in early part of the new financial year has been in line with expectations. In France, Pluxee (PLX.FP) reported in-line Q3 sales and confirmed FY25 & FY26 outlook. Further out of France, the government has reportedly asked airlines to cut flights at Paris airports by 40% ahead of planned strikes, with Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYA.ID) announcing it had to cancel 170 flights today, also issuing calls on the EU to take urgent action.
On M&A front, Reinet confirms that it has been approached by Athora Holding Ltd and is in advanced talks relating to potential disposal of its interest in PIC. Chesnara (CSN.LN) bought HSBC Life (UK) for £260M in cash from HSBC Holdings unit HSBC Bank.
In other notable corporate news, Novartis (NOVN.SW) Phase 3 GCAPTAIN study of Cosentyx did not meet its primary endpoint.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Retail +1.44%, Insurance +1.29%, Banks +1.30%, Technology +1.15%, Financial Svcs +0.93%, Oil & Gas +0.76%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.57%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.59%, Media +0.47%, Real Estate+0.50%,
Underperformers
Health Care (1.00%), Basic Resources (0.61%), Chemicals (0.46%), Construct & Mtls (0.14%), Autos & Parts +0.07%, Food & Beverage +0.13%, Telecom +0.11%, Travel & Leisure +0.26%, Utilities +0.36%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics:
Markets:
UK:
BoE survey shows higher inflation expectations
Starmer stands firmly behind Reeves amid economic criticism (Reuters, Independent)
Gilts and sterling rise after UK PM Starmer backs Chancellor Reeves (BBC)
UK bonds face sharp selloff over fiscal policy concerns (Reuters)
UK lenders warn over changes to UK tax free savings accounts (Telegraph )
Germany:
German coalition limits electricity tax cut amid budget clash (Bloomberg)
France:
French air traffic control strikes cause flight delays across Europe (FT)
Greece:
Greece to develop loitering munitions, eyes advanced capabilities (ekathimerini)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+9.2% VIRP.FP (Virbac €345.00, +29.00) -- Oddo upgrade
+7.1% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK280.50, +18.50) -- Q2 earnings
+6.9% NDX1.GR (Nordex €18.38, +1.19) -- order
+6.6% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF6.72, +0.42)
+6.6% CURY.LN (Currys £1.26, +0.08) -- FY earnings
+6.2% MAU.FP (Maurel et Prom €5.21, +0.30) -- to acquire a 21% interest in the Sinu-9 gas block in Colombia
+5.4% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €16.68, +0.86) -- Q2 new leasing business
+5.2% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €94.65, +4.65) -- prelim Q2 earnings
+4.8% MELE.BB (Melexis €73.85, +3.35)
+4.3% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF11.95, +0.49)
+4.0% PAF.LN (Pan African Resources $0.49, +0.02)
+3.8% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £2.49, +0.09) -- prelim H1 earnings
+3.2% CCC.SS (Cavotec SEK17.55, +0.55) -- order
+3.1% VTY.LN (Vistry Group £6.37, +0.19)
+2.8% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK324.80, +9.00) -- to acquire majority stake in Europa Biosite from Adelis Equity; acquires 2.04M sq ft portfolio of modern logistics facilities in Manteca
+2.5% YIT.FH (Yit €2.62, +0.06) -- to deliver €27.6M field extension at the southern tip of West Harbour in Helsinki
+2.2% GPE.LN (Great Portland Estates £3.48, +0.08) -- Q1 business update
+1.2% AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel €60.53, +0.73) -- appoints new CFO
Notable Decliners
-11.8% A1OS.GR (All for One Group €47.80, -6.40) -- adjusts FY25 guidance downward
-8.1% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK0.99, -0.09) -- receives update from Organon concerning OG-6219
-7.6% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £3.90, -0.32) -- FY earnings
-2.9% KLR.LN (Keller Group £13.92, -0.42) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade
-2.1% NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor NOK134.80, -2.90) -- BofA downgrade
-2.1% BO.DC (Bang & Olufsen DKK12.94, -0.28) -- FY earnings
-1.9% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF7.41, -0.15) -- shares commence secondary trading today on Euronext Oslo Børs
-1.7% KOA.NO (Kongsberg Automotive NOK1.62, -0.03) -- announces €15M annual overhead cost reduction initiative
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: Catena (CATE.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Jun Services PMI
UK 52.8 vs preliminary 51.3
Eurozone 50.5 vs prelim 50.0
Germany 49.7 vs prelim 49.4
France 49.6 vs prelim 48.7
Italy 52.1 vs cons 52.6 and prior 53.2
Sweden 54.6 vs cons 51.6 and prior revised 50.9 from 50.8
Spain 51.9 vs cons 51.1 and prior 51.3
Switzerland Jun CPI +0.1% y/y vs cons (0.1%) and prior (0.1%); +0.2% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($0.78) or (1.16%) to $66.67
€-$ (0.0038) or (0.32%) to 1.1763
£-$ +0.0019 or +0.14% to 1.3655
€-£ (0.0038) to 0.8615
S&P 500 +0.82%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.88%
DAX: +20.06%
CAC: +5.05%
MIB: +16.69%
Stoxx 600: +7.06%
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