Jul 10 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher with the exception of Germany (0.4%), Italy (0.7%) and Spain (0.8%). Follows positive close on Wednesday. Basic resources, autos and personal & household goods outperformed. Utilities, insurance and telecom were the worst performing sectors.
President Trump issued more tariff letters on Wednesday, though mostly to smaller trading partners. Japan media also reporting officials looking to organize trade talks with Treasury Secretary Bessent next week. US-Brazil tensions another focus after Trump threatened 50% tariffs over what he claims is unfair treatment of former president Bolsonaro, prompting retaliation vow by Lula. Markets largely shrugging off latest developments on expectations of a likely reprieve closer to new August deadline. Press sources continue to highlight prospects of deals with bigger trading partners such as EU and India. Start of Q2 earnings season also in focus with talk of lower bar given outsized estimate reductions over the course of Q2.
In political news, European Commission President von der Leyen survives no confidence vote in European Parliament. UK and France set to announce migrant deal and cooperation on use of nuclear weapons to defend Europe.
Limited macro developments in Europe. German final CPI data for June unchanged from flash. Norwegian inflation weaker-than-forecast in June, though unchanged from May. Italian production missed. Latest UK housing update from RICS showed came in ahead of expectations with market stabilizing after modest slowdown after April tax change.
On the corporate front, out of DACHs, Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW) lowered annual targets due to cocoa bean prices. Gerresheimer (GXI.GR) cuts 2025 revenue outlook for second time citing weak demand in cosmetic and oral liquids. Suedzucker (SZU.GR) posted 85% profit slump on low EU sugar prices. Fielmann Group (FIE.GR) reported preliminary H1 adjusted EBITDA ~ €290M vs year-ago €230.0M and reaffirmed FY outlook. In the UK, Vistry Group (VTY.LN) H1 numbers weak y/y but maintains FY profit forecast, PageGroup (PAGE.LN) Q2 softer y/y, though board expects 2025 operating profit to be broadly in line with current market consensus of c. £22M vs FactSet £24.05M while Severn Trent (SVT.LN) said financial performance for the year remains on track, expects to perform in line with guidance. Elsewhere, Kemira (KEMIRA.FH) Q2 missed, 2025 outlook cut following soft demand in packaging and pulp. In other news, WPP (WPP.LN) named Microsoft executive Rose as CEO.
In M&A deals, Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LN) agrees to acquire CCLA Investment Management Ltd. for £100M; in Spain, media reports EU commission to open infringement proceedings against Spain for blocking BBVA (BBVA.SM) takeover bid for Sabadell (SAB.SM). Also, Newlat Food (NWL.IM) acquires Italian baby and specialty food business from Kraft Heinz.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +3.41%, Autos & Parts +1.98%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.79%, Health Care +1.78%, Financial Svcs +1.21%, Construct & Mtls +0.71%, Retail +0.68%, Media +0.67%, Technology +0.65%, Travel & Leisure +0.62%, Chemicals +0.58%
Underperformers:
Utilities (0.84%), Insurance (0.79%), Telecom (0.76%), Banks (0.65%), Real Estate (0.36%), Food & Beverage +0.31%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.45%, Oil & Gas +0.45%
Macro
Geopolitics
EU
UK
Tory ex-chairman defects to Reform - The Telegraph
France
50 migrants a week could be sent back to France in pilot of 'one in, one out' deal - BBC, The Guardian
Germany
Economist Werding warns of social security contributions of 50 percent - Handelsblatt
Spain
Spain's Pedro Sánchez confronts deepest crisis of his premiership - FT
Norway
Norway Core Inflation Quickens for First Time in Four Months - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+10.7% JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management £1.20, +0.12) -- agrees to acquire CCLA Investment Management Ltd. for £100M; announces a proposed update to its capital allocation policy
+8.8% ALZCUR.SS (AlzeCure Pharma SEK2.96, +0.24) -- CEO Martin Jönsson interview in BioStock
+7.0% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €3.76, +0.25) -- confirms united kingdom to participate in contemplated capital increase announced on 19-Jun-25, taking the total amount to €1.5B
+6.9% EPR.NO (Europris NOK94.00, +6.10) -- Q2 earnings
+6.9% AALB.NA (Aalberts €33.36, +2.16) -- intends to acquire GVT in Southeast Asian semicon market
+6.8% EXA.FP (Exail Technologies €94.70, +6.00) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+6.5% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK63.48, +3.88) -- announces outcome of directed rights issue of 13.5M shares to Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
+6.4% LUVE.IM (LU-VE €32.40, +1.95) -- prelim Q2 sales
+6.2% NWL.IM (NewPrinces €17.94, +1.04) -- acquires Italian baby and specialty food business from Kraft Heinz
+5.5% FYB.GR (Formycon €30.55, +1.60) -- study update
+5.3% IVSO.SS (INVISIO SEK387.00, +19.50) -- initiated buy at Nordea
+5.0% TECN.SW (Tecan Group CHF167.20, +7.90) -- CEO to step down
+4.6% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK183.75, +8.15) -- contract
+4.6% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.12, +0.14) -- sector move
+4.0% VOE.AV (Voestalpine €25.74, +1.00) -- sector move
+3.9% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €85.22, +3.22) -- Q2 worldwide sales
+3.8% HOME.SM (Neinor Homes €17.14, +0.62) -- announces voluntary tender offer price adjustment after dividend announced by AEDAS; JB Capital Markets upgrade
+3.2% POLR.LN (Polar Capital Holdings £4.70, +0.14) -- reports movement in 3M to 30-Jun; Panmure Liberum upgrade
+3.1% XANO.B.SS (XANO Industri SEK67.40, +2.00) -- Q2 earnings
+2.9% NDX1.GR (Nordex €19.27, +0.55) -- Q2/H1 order update
+2.6% TRI.LN (Trifast £0.70, +0.02) -- FY earnings
+2.4% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.11, -0.00) -- Q2 trading update
+2.2% BONHR.NO (Bonheur NOK236.00, +5.00) -- Q2 earnings
+1.7% WPP.LN (WPP Group £4.36, +0.08) -- CEO steps down
+1.5% NDA.GR (Aurubis €94.75, +1.40) -- sector move
+1.5% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, -0.00) -- approval of $33.3M second sdvance under $750M stream financing
Notable Decliners
-14.2% MACF.LN (Macfarlane Group £1.00, -0.17) -- trading update
-13.4% BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut CHF825.50, -127.50) -- 9M sale; lowers FY guidance
-11.5% TFF.FP (TFF Group €20.80, -2.70) -- FY earnings; Oddo downgrade
-7.8% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK5.66, -0.48) -- Q2 earnings
-7.8% HSW.LN (Hostelworld Group £1.31, -0.11) -- H1 trading update
-7.6% CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals £1.49, -0.12) -- Kinterra increases takeover offer price for New World Resources; H1 operational summary
-7.2% BULTEN.SS (Bulten SEK59.00, -4.60) -- Q2 earnings
-6.3% JSG.LN (Johnson Service Group £1.44, -0.10) -- H1 trading update
-6.1% GFTU.LN (Grafton Group £9.37, -0.60) -- H1 trading update
-5.1% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group £0.93, -0.05) -- FY earnings; convertible notes; to carry out retail offer
-5.0% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK0.06, -0.00) -- Q2 earnings
-4.3% KEMIRA.FH (Kemira €18.46, -0.82) -- preliminary Q2 earnings; downgrades outlook for 2025
-4.0% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €29.01, -1.19) -- BofA downgrade
-3.9% LNDR.IM (Landi Renzo €1.09, -0.04) -- requests the appointment of an independent expert to assist in negotiations with banks to resolve company's financial restructuring
-3.5% AGR.AV (Agrana Beteiligungs €12.25, -0.45) -- Q1 earnings
-3.5% WITH.FH (WithSecure €1.04, -0.04) -- inderes downgrade
-3.1% ICAD.FP (Icade €20.64, -0.66) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-2.6% NEWA.B.SS (New Wave Group SEK122.20, -3.20) -- transferred hold at Handelsbanken
-2.3% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK510.00, -12.00) -- Q2 earnings
-1.6% APAM.NA (Aperam €27.42, -0.44) -- Jefferies downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW)
Denmark: Tryg (TRYG.DC), Gyldendal (GYLD.A.DC)
Norway: DNB Bank (DNB.NO), Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Storebrand (STB.NO), Protector Forsikring (PROT.NO), Entra (ENTRA.NO), Aker Solutions (AKSO.NO), Elkem (ELK.NO), Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO), Public Property Invest (PUBLI.NO), Aker BioMarine (AKBM.NO), XXL (XXL.NO), Otovo (OTOVO.NO)
Sweden: Axfood (AXFO.SS), Fortnox (FNOX.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Mycronic (MYCR.SS), HMS Networks (HMS.SS), Pandox (PNDX.B.SS), Bravida Holding (BRAV.SS), Vitec Software Group (VIT.B.SS), Intea Fastigheter (INTEA.B.SS), Gränges (GRNG.SS), JM (JM.SS), Xvivo Perfusion (XVIVO.SS), Arjo (ARJO.B.SS), Plejd (PLEJD.SS), TF Bank (TFBANK.SS), Lime Technologies (LIME.SS), Duni (DUNI.SS), Byggmax Group (BMAX.SS), Elanders (ELAN.B.SS), Corem Property Group (CORE.A.SS), Netel Holding (NETEL.SS), Logistea (LOGI.A.SS), Dedicare (DEDI.SS), Lammhults Design Group (LAMM.B.SS)
Trading Update:
France: Thermador Groupe (THEP.FP)
Nordics: DFDS (DFDS.DC)
Traffic: Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR), Heathrow Airport (+HTR.LN), Aeroflot-Russian Airlines (AFLT.RU)
Data:
Economics:
Jun CPI
Denmark +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.6%
Germany +2.0% y/y vs preliminary +2.0%
Norway +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and prior +3.0%
May Industrial Production
Italy (0.9%) y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.1% from +0.3%
Sweden +5.0% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and prior +5.0%
Netherlands May Manufacturing Production +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior revised (1.1%) from (1.0%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 25): ($1.34) or (1.96%) to $67.04
€-$ (0.0045) or (0.38%) to 1.1678
£-$ (0.0031) or (0.23%) to 1.3555
€-£ (0.0015) to 0.8613
S&P 500 +0.22%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.82%
DAX: +22.84%
CAC: +7.07%
MIB: +18.55%
Stoxx 600: +8.93%
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