Sep 26 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly lower Friday. Steep losses in South Korea and Taiwan on read through from the Nasdaq's pullback overnight. Japan's Nikkei down sharply while the Topix ended flat. Greater China stocks all lower with Shenzhen leading the declines with a sharp fall in the Hang Seng late on. Australia and Singapore both with small gains, Southeast Asia lower, India with more losses in early trades. For the week, major mainland China benchmarks gained but all other major Asia boards including the Hang Seng fell. US futures turning positive, Europe higher in the first hour of trade. US dollar lower to offset some gains overnight, won fell to its weakest since May on trade talk doubts and pharma tariffs. Treasury and JGBs mixed. Crude higher again and set for a weekly gain. Gold edging higher, copper adding to weekly gains. Cryptocurrencies steady following overnight losses.
Asia equities ended the week on a sour note with selloffs in several major benchmarks, leading to weekly losses almost everywhere except mainland China. The Nasdaq's partial pullback Thursday read through to Asia's technology-leaning boards in Taiwan and Japan's Nikkei, while South Korea's Kospi was further weighed by won weakness as trade talks with the US appeared to stall. Other Asia currencies notably weaker Friday on the dollar's appreciation as expectations grow for further Asia monetary policy easing in the coming months as trade tariffs begin to hit, illustrated this week by a slowdown in manufacturing flash PMIs, especially in the new orders' component.
India, Japan and South Korea pharma stocks lower post President Trump's proclamation of 100% tariffs on pharma imports from companies not investing in the US. Fresh tariffs also imposed on heavy trucks and some furniture items but Asia less impacted by these. Tokyo September core inflation fell by more than expected but was still above the BOJ's target rate. Singapore manufacturing output contracted for the first time in more than a year in August, matching the trajectory of its core export data. South Korea business sentiment improved to a ten-month high on stimulus and chip sector improvements; the country also announced changes to its forex trading arrangements from next year that will allow won trading on a 24-hour basis, and said it would shelve plans for reorganizing financial regulators.
Chiba Bank (8331.JP) confirmed it was considering a business integration with Chiba Kogyo Bank. Baidu (9888.HK) said it is exploring new markets including Australia and parts of Southeast Asia for its robotaxis. Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) has raised $821M in a Hong Kong top-up placement completed at an almost 6% discount to its prior closing price. Xiaomi (1810.HK) plans new showrooms when it launches its EV range in Europe by 2027 and is considering local manufacturing later. Waaree Energies (544277.IN) is being investigated by the US customs and border protection agency for potential anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells. DB Insurance (005830.KS) confirmed it is to acquire Fortegra for around KRW2.3T ($1.65B) in cash from Tiptree and Warburg Pincus.
Digest:
Trump announces next round of tariffs effective 1-Oct, signs executive order on TikTok deal:
US President Trump posted on Truth Social that 100% tariffs will be imposed on branded or patented drugs from 1-Oct unless the producer is building a plant in America. There were no further details. FT noted pharmas were so far exempt from reciprocal tariffs, meaning many drugs face steep levies for the first time. Latest measures do not apply to generic drugs. Bloomberg cited Biotechnology Innovation Organization calculations the world's largest pharmas operate scores of manufacturing sites globally and nearly 90% of US biotech firms rely on imported components for at least half of their approved products. Trump also announced a 50% levy on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and associated products, 30% duty on upholstered furniture. Furthermore, added 25% tariff on heavy truck imports. Reuters recalled US Chamber of Commerce urged for no new truck tariffs given top five import sources are allied countries that post no threat to US national security. Earlier, Trump signed an executive order to ratify a shift in TikTok's US operations to American ownership (Bloomberg). Trump said he spoke with Xi Jinping who gave the go-ahead. Press reports stressed there is still a lot of uncertainty with no public confirmation from Beijing and a lack of details. Vice President Vance said the business is valued at $14B.
Tokyo core CPI inflation unexpectedly steady in a setback for BOJ rate hike expectations:
Tokyo core CPI rose a steady 2.5% y/y in September compared to expectations of 2.8%. Marks the first unchanged reading after three consecutive months of moderation. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation eased to 2.5% from 3.0% vs consensus 2.9%. Energy contributions expanded to +0.42 ppt as electricity and gas prices turned positive, seemingly reflecting base effects, even as government subsidies were a drag of 0.30 ppt. Closely watched non-fresh food prices continued to decelerate. All categories of rice prices fading rapidly in year-ago terms, logging softest increases in a year. Main new development came in a major 60.4% drop in nursery school fees that subtracted 0.28 ppt from the headline. This reflected a move by the Tokyo government to make childcare fees free for a family's first child. Knee-jerk reactions were meaningfully dovish in FX/JGB markets, prompting some retreat in October BOJ rate hike expectations. Yet, minutes for the July policy meeting revealed notably hawkish discussions that looked beyond a long-expected softer phase in inflation. Board members Takata and Tamura were emboldened enough to cast dissenting votes at the latest September meeting, proposing rate hikes that were interpreted as a hawkish signal.
Asia currencies sink as trade pressures ramp up, dollar rallies:
Asia currencies set for weekly declines versus US dollar amid fresh US tariffs on pharmaceutical, machinery imports, ongoing concerns over impact from hike in H-1B visa fees. Weakness comes as dollar strengthened post better-than-expected US GDP figures that led to lowering of Fed rate cut expectations. Won at five-month low as trade negotiations with Washington stall after Seoul said visa issue needs settled before investment component of trade deal can be agreed. Week-long yuan weakness led to informal PBOC intervention in form of stronger fixing several days this week. New Zealand dollar significant underperformer w/w to end at lowest since April after more weak data pointed to RBNZ easing next month. Australia dollar a relative outperformer on dialed back expectations of RBA rate cut next week. Rupee continues to hover at record lows on deepening overseas investor exodus, concerns over impact of visa fee hike on remittances.
South Korea to begin 24-hour won trading just as finance minister meets MSCI chief:
South Korea's finance ministry to open forex market to 24-hour trading from next year, ease restrictions on trading between non-residents. Move key component in Seoul's drive to be included in MSCI Developed Market stock Indexes, comes as foreign minister Koo met MSCI chairman to explain Seoul's market reforms to improve foreign accessibility to equity, currency markets (Yonhap). In June, MSCI announced it would keep South Korea's emerging market designation, stressed open currency convertibility essential for South Korea to qualify as developed market. Currently, non-resident won trading limited due to reporting obligations and other regulatory hurdles; planned legislation would remove these while BOK to build new settlement system to handle 24-hour won market (Bloomberg). Separately, government scrapped reforms to country's financial authorities after officials warned splitting of responsibilities would sow confusion, weaken crisis response (KoreaEconomicDaily).
JGB curve steepens on political drama, Tokyo CPI disappointment:
JGB curve steepened Friday, partly driven by unwinding of curve flatteners in response to latest news in politics. Nikkei reported LDP presidential election front-runner Koizumi's campaign team asked its members to produce praising content in online videos that were regarded as out of line. Koizumi and Finance Minister (campaign manager) Kato acknowledged the seriousness of the matter and vowed to prevent reoccurrence although Koizumi himself was not involved. Some thoughts this could put Koizumi at a disadvantage in the 4-Oct leadership vote. Recall that Koizumi seen as the closest to a continuation of outgoing PM Ishiba's policies. This election is generally seen as a two-horse race with fiscal dove Takaichi the other viable contender based on opinion polls. Additionally, softer than expected Tokyo core CPI supported the short to medium part of the curve reflecting some retreat in BOJ rate hike expectations. Comes shortly after market-implied odds swung in favor of October over December reflecting hawkish takeaways from the September policy meeting. Unclear whether the major drop in nursery fees accounted for the headline surprise (isolated to Tokyo) while energy contributions increased as base effects outweighed suppression from government subsidies as part of cost-of-living relief measures over peak summer energy demand.
Notable Gainers:
+2.8% 6098.JP (Recruit): completes up to ¥130B off-auction buyback
+1.9% 1925.JP (Daiwa House Industry): report of acquiring Windsor Homes, a North Carolina homebuilder in the U.S.
+1.9% 8331.JP (The Chiba Bank): confirms it is considering business integration with Chiba Kogyo Bank
Notable Decliners:
-6.2% 035720.KS (Kakao): report of KakaoTalk facing user backlash after launching a redesign of the mobile application; users are unhappy with the inconveniences caused by the update
-1.0% F34.SP (Wilmar International): found guilty of corruption in a case linked to cooking oil exports permit during a shortage of palm oil four years ago by Indonesia's Supreme Court
-0.5% 017670.KS (SK Telecom): plans to invest KRW5T in AI over next 5 years
Data:
Economic:
Japan
September Tokyo core CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and +2.5% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and +3.0% in prior month
Overall CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and revised +2.5% in prior month
Singapore August
Manufacturing production y/y (7.8%) versus +7.7% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (399.94) or (0.87%) to 45354.99
Hang Seng: (356.48) or (1.35%) to 26128.20
Shanghai Composite: (25.20) or (0.65%) to 3828.11
Shenzhen Composite: (38.56) or (1.54%) to 2470.73
ASX200: 14.70 or +0.17% to 8787.70
KOSPI: (85.06) or (2.45%) to 3386.05
SENSEX: (455.47) or (0.56%) to 80704.21
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.02) or (0.01%) to 149.7800
$-KRW: +1.47 or +0.10% to 1410.6100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 0.6534
$-INR: (0.10) or (0.11%) to 88.6716
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.1335
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