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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.85%, Hang Seng (0.54%), Shanghai Composite 0.00% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 03 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Friday. Strong gains for the Nikkei 225 and Topix exchanges with Taiwan adding to Thursday's gains. Australia higher, Singapore at a fresh record high. Gains for Southeast Asia. Hang Seng gave up some of yesterday's gains but ended off its trough, India trading around the flatline. South Korea and mainland China closed for a holiday. US futures higher, Europe opened higher again with several benchmarks seeing fresh record highs. US dollar a smidge higher, yen weaker but other currencies stable. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields a lower. Crude blends higher, gold grinding higher following overnight losses. Base metals mostly unchanged. Cryptocurrencies rally losing steam.

    • Asia equities mostly finishing out the week with solid gains although there was a modest pullback in Hong Kong with a broad-based decline on thin volumes. All major indexes posted w/w gains, ex Japan's Topix, with technology stocks surging and several others such as Softbank and Hitachi gaining on either read through or associated agreements with OpenAI on its Stargate buildout. Hong Kong down today with several auto companies easing back as sentiment soured following BYD's poor numbers Thursday and Tesla's stock selloff overnight.

    • In regional developments, BOJ Governor Ueda warned over global uncertainty, said underlying inflation was on course to track actual price moves, and the Tankan survey removed some uncertainty; markets interpreted the remarks as leaning dovish and the yen weakened alongside JGB yields. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expects a breakthrough in upcoming China trade talks with focus now firmly on China soybean purchases. Few other catalysts elsewhere as traders brush off the US government shutdown although it will miss today's NFPs as a result however Fed Fund Futures still indicate bank still on course to trim rates later this month.

    • Hitachi (6501.JP) signed a strategic partnership with OpenAI to collaborate on energy, power grid operations, AI and other areas; shares sharply higher. Seven & i (3382.JP) warned customers it could run out of Asahi beer brands following a cyberattack at Asahi Group (2502.JP) this week.

  • Digest:

    • Japan markets saw no clear rate hike signals in latest BOJ rhetoric:

      • Japan market digests for Friday's session across the main asset classes broadly indicated takeaways from speeches by BOJ Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Uchida as lacking specific signals for a rate hike in October. While both raised some sanguine points from yesterday's BOJ Tankan survey attesting to the resilience of underlying domestic fundamentals, both officials only repeated longstanding core guidance that policy will continue to be adjusted if the main outlook scenario will be realized. Markets were waiting on BOJ MPC interpretations of the Tankan data after economists saw content as inconclusive and lacked sufficient motivation to bring forward rate hike forecasts to October. Separately, BOJ output gap measure was -0.32% in Q2, extending the negative streak since 1Q20. Prior BOJ rhetoric suggested acute labor shortages are constraining capacity particularly among labor-intensive services such as accommodation/dining. Attention now shifts to the BOJ branch managers meeting and regional economic report on 6-Oct. Nikkei reported the Osaka branch on Thursday left its economic assessment unchanged for the 15th straight month. While tariff-related uncertainty remains high, solid domestic demand underpinning a gradual economic recovery. With Osaka overseeing Tankan surveys in several areas in the western Kinki region, business sentiment was said to have maintained high levels, though officials remain cautious on tariff uncertainties.

    • BOJ Governor Ueda sees no signs tariff effects spreading through Japan's economy:

      • In a speech, BOJ Governor Ueda highlighted evidence from the September Tankan survey to indicate the US-Japan tariff negotiations have reduced outlook uncertainty. Business sentiment remains favorable on the whole. Manufacturing profits have been negatively impacted though remain near historical peaks, while non-manufacturing earnings have been little affected. Exports have waned recently after tariff front-loading has waned, mainly in autos since the spring. Capex maintains a moderate growth trajectory. Private consumption has been affected by higher food prices, though overall demand has been resilient against the backdrop of improving employment and incomes. In all, US tariffs have impacted exporter earnings but so far there are no signs of spreading to Japan's broader economy. Acknowledged food prices contributing the bulk of inflation pressures, though still sees this as temporary and core CPI expected to soften gradually below 2% at some point in FY26. Growth rebound amplifie by labor shortages to guide inflation to the BOJ target in the second half of the projection period. Stressed that US developments remain the biggest risk for Japan, in terms of how tariff costs impact corporate earnings as well as the future course for the labor market. For BOJ policy, Ueda said it was important to maintain accommodation during US tariff volatility, leading to the board's decision to keep rates on hold last month. Reiterated core guidance that rate hikes would continue if their main scenario outlook tracks in line.

    • Bessent expects breakthrough in upcoming China trade talks, voices concern over soybeans:

      • Speaking on CNBC, Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expects "big breakthrough" in his upcoming talks with China Vice Premier He Lifeng (Bloomberg). Soybeans have emerged as flashpoint in trade talks with Bessent saying Beijing is using American farmers as leverage in talks. President Trump also criticized Beijing for stopping US soybean purchases and vowed to raise issue with President Xi this month. Beijing has instead been preferencing soybean purchases from South American countries like Argentina, angering Republicans into pushing back against White House proposal to offer credit swap line to Buenos Aires. Beijing's decision to halt purchases of American soybeans recalls similar strategy employed in Trump's first term before two sides eventually agreed to Phase One trade deal, and China's Commerce Ministry recently signaled that resumption of soybean purchases may hinge on tariff relief (Reuters). However, there are signs that US may not be inclined to reduce China tariffs further. SCMP sources said US "very comfortable" with current level of tariffs and amount of revenue they are generating. USTR Greer this week also said 55% China tariffs are "good status quo" that Trump views as the deal with Beijing (Reuters).

    • Asia AI rally continues:

      • Semis carrying forward Thursday's momentum. OpenAI at center of news this week, engaging in supply discussions with Asian tech firms that have fueled AI-driven momentum on regional benchmarks. In latest development, OpenAI signed MoU with Hitachi (6501.JP) for supply of cooling equipment and power transmission systems for AI data centers in bid to reduce energy costs (Nikkei). Comes after OpenAI this week also struck HBM and DRAM supply deals with Samsung (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) (FT, Reuters) and reportedly held talks with Taiwan chip manufacturers on Stargate cooperation. Fujitsu (6702.JP) another standout gainer in Japan on Friday after announcing it will expand strategic collaboration with Nvidia (NVDA) for delivery of full-stack AI infrastructure. Alibaba (9988.HK) has also played a prominent role in this week's AI rally following JP Morgan price target upgrade. Fund managers similarly bullish on Alibaba's cloud revenue growth outlook, citing underweight foreign positioning and undemanding valuations with forward P/E of 22x still below its prior peak of 29x and that of US peers (Bloomberg).

    • Japan labor market data meaningfully softer, though environment remains chronically tight:

      • Unemployment rate was 2.6% in August, above consensus 2.4%. Follows 2.3% in the previous month and marks the highest since Jul-24. Sharp 210K m/m drop in employment driven mainly by regular jobs was the largest since Feb-23. This outweighed a mild 40K decline in the labor force. No specific driver to explain job losses and seasonally adjusted series prone to occasional spurious volatility. Job offers to applicants ratio was 1.20 in August, below consensus and prior month's 1.22, marking the lowest since Jan-22. Lower sequential job offers combined with higher applications. Offers trending somewhat lower than applications in year-ago terms YTD. Despite the headline disappointments, monthly data have ceded to historic structural labor market tightness reflecting underlying demographic challenges and exacerbated by the Covid pandemic. There has been more attention of late to the BOJ Tankan employment DI which continues to show labor shortages at historic levels. This has been cited by BOJ as a reason to expect underlying inflation to overcome a soft patch and through the wage dynamic, help guide prices to the BOJ's target in the second half of the projection period.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10.3% 6501.JP (Hitachi): Signs MoU with OpenAI for energy-saving technology and Gen AI

      • +5.2% 1590.TT (Airtac International Group): September revenue

      • +4.6% 489.HK (Dongfeng Motor Group): Application for VOYAH's listing submitted

      • +1.5% 8016.JP (Onward Holdings): Earnings

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -11.4% 3903.JP (gumi Inc): Issues stock acquisition rights by third-party allotment

      • -7.4% 7453.JP (Ryohin Keikaku): September sales

      • -6.1% 3563.JP (Food & Life Companies): September same-store sales

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • September final services PMI 53.3 vs flash 53.0 and 53.1 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 51.3 vs flash 51.1 and 52.0 in prior month

        • August unemployment rate 2.6% vs consensus 2.4% and 2.3% in prior month

          • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.20 vs consensus 1.22 vs 1.22 in prior month

      • Singapore August

        • Retail sales y/y +5.2% versus +4.6% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 832.77 or +1.85% to 45769.50

      • Hang Seng: (146.20) or (0.54%) to 27140.92

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 41.50 or +0.46% to 8987.40

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 29.84 or +0.04% to 81013.16

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.15 or +0.10% to 147.4120

      • $-KRW: +0.03 or +0.00% to 1406.0600

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.15% to 0.6607

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 88.7490

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1186

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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