Nov 04 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets mostly ended the day lower, though above the worst levels of the session
Having initial opening lower, pan-European indices extended losses reaching the worst levels of the day around mid morning, before shares pared falls, helped by Wall St. doing the same after it opened
Limited drivers in Europe as market participants assessed the latest slew of earnings/updates, central bank speakers comments and UK fiscal policy, where pound and Gilts digested Chancellor's comments in early morning press conf regards upcoming budget
Shares were range-bound into the close, with Ireland +1.0% and Switzerland +0.4%, Belgium +0.2% along with FTSE100 bucking the lower trend and lead outperformers. Finland (1.2%) and Austria (1.1%) led underperformers
Netherlands election produced a fragmented outcome, with the government formation process, Rob Jetten's D66 party is expected to take the lead in a first round of talks to form a coalition government, seen taking some considerable time before an agreement is reached. French politics remains in focus as government looks to garner agreement on Budget 2026, with National Assembly debates continuing, the health budget at the centre of today's discussions. UK Chancellor gave a 'surprise' pre-budget, scene setter speech, and gave her clearest indication yet that taxes will increase for much of the nation, as Reeves looked to address speculation over autumn budget due on 26-Nov
Central bank speakers included Cyprus central bank's Patsalides at The Economist's 21st Annual Cyprus Summit and Bank of Spain's Escrivá spoke at conf. organised by Santander, with BOE's Breeden in fireside chat. Bank of Finland's Rehn says no major changes to outlook since ECB's Sep meeting. Bundesbank's Balz spoke at conf. on Digital Euro organised by the bank whilst Bundesbank's Nagel will speak at 18:00CET title 'Together we are stronger - how Europe is becoming fit for its new global role' at event organised by the bank.
EU's Dombrovskis, ESM's Gramegna participate in Bulgaria central bank's conf 'Bulgaria on the Doorstep of the Eurozone', where ECB's Lagarde spoke and gave press conf (event webcast (English) or Bulgarian).
In politics, Chancellor Merz continued his inaugural visits to the German states, this time to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In UK, following Chancellor Reeves scene setter speech ahead of Budget 2025, business in the House of Commons kicked off with her facing MPs questions on Treasury and there's a debate on a motion(s) in the name of the Official Opposition (subjects supporting high streets as well as welfare spending). Committee topics include AI in financial services and the UK's fiscal framework.
EU's Jørgensen speech at the Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) Conf. NATO North Atlantic Council meeting, sees EU's Kubilius among the attendees.
Norway's Sandvik among the defence ministers from the ten JEF countries attending meeting (through Wed) to strengthen cooperation and security in Northern Europe, whilst minister of fisheries and the oceans Næss participates in Agenda Nord-Norge and minister of finance Stoltenberg participates in debate at the Storting about the Government Pension Fund Global's investments in Israeli companies. PM Støre spoke at Yara's autumn seminar and minister of energy Aasland participated in the National Tariff Conf for the Energy Sector, organized by the Electricity and IT Assn. Also, Handelsblatt Health (through Wed) and Handelsblatt Industry (through Wed), as well as Dagens industri's AI Customer Experience Summit and Small Business Evening
M&A news flow included Ørsted (ORSTED.DC) to divest 50% stake in Hornsea 3 to Apollo (APO). UKs' CMA clears Subsea7 (SUBC.NO), Saipem (SPM.IM) merger. TPG confirms acquisition of 70% equity interest in Kinetic Group via its Rise Climate Fund, with Foresight (FSG.LN) retaining a 30% stake.
Companies with shares responding positively to earnings/updates include Koninklijke Philips (PHIA.NA) reported better-than-expected Q3 numbers and reiterated FY25 outlook with EBITA margin now expected at the upper end of the range. OC Oerlikon Corp. (OERL.SW) post better-than-expected Q3 sales and orders. Geberit (GEBN.SW) after Q3 beat and raises FY net sales growth in local currencies guidance. BP (BP.LN) reports Q3 net income $2.21B vs consensus $2.02B. Amidst companies with declining share prices are, Telefonica (TEF.SM) Q3 earnings, CMD, Fresenius Medical Care (FME.GR) despite Q3 earnings beat with outlook 2025 confirmed. Evonik Industries (EVK.GR) reports Q3 adj. EPS €0.27 vs consensus €0.26. International Workplace Group (IWG.LN) published Q3 numbers and confirmed FY guidance. Associated British Foods (ABF.LN) shares reversed opening gains post FY results, the group also announced board review of Group structure that may lead to decision to undertake a separation of the Primark and Food businesses. There were monthly traffic statistics from Ryanair (RYA.ID) and Wizz Air (WIZZ.LN)
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Food & Beverage +0.91%, Health Care +0.81%, Utilities +0.63%, Real Estate+0.48%, Insurance +0.18%, Banks +0.10%, Construct & Mtls (0.20%), Media (0.20%)
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (2.01%), Telecom (1.68%), Retail (1.52%), Travel & Leisure (1.35%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.25%), Technology (0.99%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.58%), Chemicals (0.53%), Oil & Gas (0.45%), Autos & Parts (0.43%), Financial Svcs (0.43%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU:
Environment ministers gather for meeting aimed at agreeing a general approach on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040 - release
Adopted its annual Enlargement Package; shows progress towards EU membership for key enlargement partners - release
Finland:
Bank of Finland's Rehn says no major changes to outlook since ECB's Sep meeting - release
France:
Budget crisis deepens as tax amendments spiral out of control - FT, LeParisien
Greece:
Oct business expectations in industry index 104.9 vs prior 105.2 and year-ago 103.5 - IOBE
Ireland:
Government's long-awaited housing plan to be published within the next fortnight says Minister - RTE
Norway:
Country's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 decreased by (4.1%) y/y - government press release citing Statistics Office data
Sweden:
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist introduced as the new leadership candidate by Anders Åkesson, chair of the Centre Party's nomination committee - The Local
UK:
Pursues US tariff relief on steel and whiskey - Bloomberg
PM Starmer signals income tax hike to avoid austerity cuts - FT
Chancellor Reeves vows fair tax rises in pre-budget address to spare NHS and tame debt mountain - London Times, Reuters
Chancellors scene setter speech ahead of Budget 2025 - release
Smaller budget hole at £14B - Resolution Foundation
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+17.2% DNR.IM (Industrie De Nora) -- Q3 net income €24.9M vs FactSet €20.9M [2 est, €19.9-22M]; reaffirms FY revenue, raises adj EBITDA margin guidance
+13.9% BICO.SS (BICO Group) -- Q3 EPS cont ops (SEK15.68) and unclear if comparable to FactSet (SEK1.02) [3 est, (SEK1.10)-(0.90)]; results include impairments
+13.2% ELG.GR (Elmos Semiconductor) -- Q3 EPS €1.37 vs FactSet €1.34 [1 est]; guides FY25
+7.7% ACAD.SS (AcadeMedia) -- buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
+4.8% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- Q4 adj EBIT DKK1.95B vs consensus DKK1.90B; guides FY26
+4.5% B8FK.GR (Biofrontera) -- signs agreement with Propharma d.o.o. for the distribution of Ameluz in Croatia
+4.3% BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- Q3 operational EBIT DKK22M vs FactSet DKK82.1M [12 est, DKK22-105.3M]
+4.1% IPCO.SS (International Petroleum Corp) -- Q3 net income $3.8M vs FactSet $6.6M [7 est, ($1)-17M]
+4.1% DOTD.LN (dotDigital Group) -- FY adj EPS 4.8p vs FactSet 4.7p [6 est, 4.5-4.9p]
+4.1% SNWS.LN (Smiths News) -- FY EPS 11.1p vs FactSet 10.2p [2 est, 10.4-10.8p]
+4.0% GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- Q3 net income CHF155.8M vs StreetAccount CHF154.2M; now expects FY net sales growth in local currencies of around +4.5% vs prior guidance +4%
+3.8% A5G.ID (AIB Group) -- Q3 NIM €2.80B, (10%) as expected; FY25 NII expected to be > €3.7B vs prior > €3.6B
+3.5% PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips) -- Q3 EPS €0.36 ex-items vs consensus €0.32; reiterates FY25 outlook with EBITA margin now expected at the upper end of the range
+3.3% LTMC.IM (Lottomatica Group) -- 9M adj net income €257.4M ex-items, +60% vs year-ago €161M
+3.2% ENEA.SS (Enea) -- updates strategy and announces new financial guidance
+3.2% KIN.BB (Kinepolis Group) -- to buy Emagine Entertainment for $105M plus up to $15M growth-based earn-out
+3.0% WHA.NA (Wereldhave) -- 9M DRPS €1.36 vs year-ago €1.30
+3.0% BSLN.SW (Basilea Pharmaceutica) -- to receive $30M milestone payment triggered by strong Cresemba sales performance in Europe
+2.2% VIVE.SS (Vivesto) -- positive results were obtained from preclinical studies in an animal model of Acute Myeloid Leukemia
+2.1% VLA.FP (Valneva) -- positive results for Phase 1 Trial of Second-Generation Zika vaccine candidate
+2.1% SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals) -- announces five-year data of AGAMREE (vamorolone) in patients with DMD show improved safety profile with comparable effectiveness to standard of care corticosteroids
+1.8% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions) -- buy from hold at Fearnley
+1.7% OKEA.NO (Okea) -- Q3 EBITDA $117M vs FactSet $133.4M [5 est, $98-185M]
+1.5% AKER.NO (Aker) -- Q3 NAVPS NOK909, +19% vs year-ago NOK767
On earnings/updates: bp (BP.LN), ASPO.FH (Aspo) and reversing initial falls FAE.SM (FAES Farma)
Notable Declinersx
-14.0% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams) -- sustained its positive trading momentum during the period; performance in line with the board's expectations
-12.7% TEF.SM (Telefonica)
Q3 adj. EBITDA €3.07B vs consensus €3.04B; reaffirms FY revenue, EBITDA, capex guidance and dividend commitment for 2025
announces its strategic guidelines up to 2028 (mid-term) and 2030 (long-term) - CMD
-9.4% FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- Q3 EPS €0.94 vs consensus €0.86; outlook 2025 confirmed
-8.2% DURC.B.SS (Duroc) -- Q1 EPS (SEK0.35) vs year-ago (SEK0.06)
-8.1% EDEN.FP (Edenred) -- new 2025-28 outlook with its Amplify 25-28 plan - CMD
-7.9% SVIK.SS (Studsvik) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.44 vs FactSet SEK1.10 [1 est]
-7.3% NOBI.SS (Nobia) -- Q3 EPS (SEK0.55) including items and unclear if comparable to FactSet SEK0.00 [1 est]
-7.0% MMK.AV (Mayr-Melnhof Karton) -- Q3 net income €2.2M vs year-ago €14.9M
-6.1% XFAB.FP (X-FAB Silicon Foundries) -- hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
-5.1% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- reiterates its financial targets; targets increase in premium offering as percent of the Group's total shipments - CMD
-5.1% TUNE.LN (Focusrite) -- FY EPS 16.7p vs FactSet 16.9p [5 est, 15.6-17.9p]
-4.9% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car) -- Oct car sales (2%) y/y to 60,455 units
-4.9% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik) -- Q2 net income (€7.6M) vs FactSet (€13M) [1 est]; comments on FY25/26 and FY26/27 outlook
-4.4% MULTI.NO (Multiconsult) -- Q3 EPS NOK1.41 vs FactSet NOK1.63 [4 est, NOK1.00-2.14]
-4.2% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings) -- Oct traffic +13.1% y/y
-4.0% CLOUD.NO (Cloudberry Clean Energy) -- Q3 proportionate EBITDA NOK36M vs FactSet NOK42.3M [3 est, NOK22-57.8M]
-4.0% IWG.LN (International Workplace Group) -- Q3 system-wide revenue $1.13B, +4% y/y; confirms FY25 guidance
-3.7% NOEJ.GR (Norma Group) -- Q3 adj. EPS from cont. ops €0.05 vs FactSet (€1.03) [2 est, (€2.12)-0.06]
-3.4% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank) -- reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
-3.4% SHA0.GR (Schaeffler) -- Q3 EBIT €264M ex-items vs FactSet €248.8M [5 est, €241-261M]
-3.3% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group) -- Q3 System sales £382.7M vs year-ago £374.8M; confirms FY guidance; shares reversed initial gains
-2.8% SFQ.GR (SAF-HOLLAND4) -- prelim. 9M EBIT €121.1M vs year-ago €146.1M
-2.3% BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- Q3 EPS €0.85 vs consensus €0.82; expects FY25 Group sales and EBIT at lower end of guidance ranges
-2.2% NEM.GR (Nemetschek) -- Q3 EPS €0.48 vs FactSet €0.46 [7 est, €0.41-0.53]
-1.5% RMS.FP (Hermes) -- equal weight from overweight at Barclays
On earnings/updates: BIM.FP (bioMerieux), HPOL.B.SS (HEXPOL), RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings), BCHN.SW (Burckhardt Compression Holding), EVK.GR (Evonik Industries), GF.SW (Georg Fischer), INDT.SS (Indutrade), AFRY.SS (AFRY) and reversing initial gains ABF.LN (Associated British Foods), NDX1.GR (Nordex)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Verbund (VER.AV), Auto1 Group (AG1.AV)
Benelux: Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.NA), Royal Vopak (VPK.NA), Galapagos (GLPG.NA), AMG Critical Materials (AMG.NA), bpost (BPOST.BB)
Denmark: Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC), Ørsted (ORSTED.DC), Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.DC), Pandora (PNDORA.DC), Ambu (AMBU.B.DC), Lån & Spar Bank (LASP.DC), cBrain (CBRAIN.DC), GrønlandsBANKEN (GRLA.DC)
Finland: Sampo (SAMPO.FH), HKFoods (HKFOODS.FH), Teleste (TLT1V.FH)
France: Bouygues (EN.FP), Jacquet Metals (JCQ.FP)
Germany: Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR), Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), Fresenius (FRE.GR), Vonovia (VNA.GR), Freenet (FNTN.GR), Kontron (KTN.GR), Evotec (EVT.GR), ZEAL Network (TIMA.GR), Washtec (WSU.GR), Kloeckner & Co. (KCO.GR), Koenig & Bauer (SKB.GR), Viemed Healthcare (VIJ.GR), Masterflex (MZX.GR), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR)
Italy: Telecom Italia (TIT.IM), Leonardo (LDO.IM), Snam (SRG.IM), Banca Generali (BGN.IM), Nexi (NEXI.IM), Diasorin (DIA.IM), Anima Holding (ANIM.IM), Ariston Holding (ARIS.IM)
Norway: Mowi (MOWI.NO), Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI.NO), Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (WWI.NO), Kongsberg Automotive (KOA.NO), DOF Group (DOFG.NO), Norconsult (NORCO.NO), LINK Mobility Group Holding (LINK.NO), Odfjell (ODF.NO), Zaptec (ZAP.NO), Arctic Fish Holding (AFISH.NO), Saga Pure (SAGA.NO), Next Biometrics Group (NEXT.NO)
Portugal: EDP-Energias de Portugal (EDP.PL), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PL)
Spain: Laboratorio Reig Jofre (RJF.SM)
Sweden: Sinch (SINCH.SS), Medicover (MCOV.B.SS), Storskogen Group (STOR.B.SS), Ambea (AMBEA.SS), Cloetta (CLA.B.SS), Haypp Group (HAYPP.SS), Kambi Group (KAMBI.SS), Karnell Group (KARNEL.B.SS), Bredband2 i Skandinavien (BRE2.SS), Vicore Pharma Holding (VICO.SS), Devyser Diagnostics (DVYSR.SS), Oncopeptides (ONCO.SS), Orrön Energy (ORRON.SS), SinterCast (SINT.SS), G5 Entertainment (G5EN.SS), Wastbygg Gruppen (WBGR.B.SS), Ascelia Pharma (ACE.SS), Eniro Group (ENRO.SS)
Switzerland: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW)
UK: CRH (CRH.LN), Marks & Spencer Group (MKS.LN), Burford Capital (BUR.LN), Trainline (TRN.LN), Braemar (BMS.LN)
Trading Statement:
Benelux: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP.NA), Wolters Kluwer (WKL.NA), Jensen-Group (JEN.BB)
France: Teleperformance (TEP.FP), Neurones (NRO.FP), Equasens Group (EQS.FP), Figeac Aero (FGA.FP), Compagnie Chargeurs Invest (CRI.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), Bilendi (ALBLD.FP)
Nordics: ISS (ISS.DC)
Southern Europe: Buzzi (BZU.IM)
UK: Barratt Redrow (BTRW.LN), TP ICAP Group (TCAP.LN), Lancashire Holdings (LRE.LN), Conduit Holdings (CRE.LN), Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ.LN)
Other: Glanbia (GL9.ID)
Sales: Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS)
CMD/events: Royal KPN (KPN.NA) Strategy Update Call, Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS), Melexis (MELE.BB), Anora Group (ANORA.FH), Alleima (ALLEI.SS), Troax Group (TROAX.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Spain Oct unemployment change +22.1K vs consensus +5.2K, prior (4.8K)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Dec 25): ($0.36) or (0.59%) to $60.69
€-$ (0.0026) or (0.23%) to 1.1493
£-$ (0.0091) or (0.69%) to 1.3048
€-£ +0.0042 to 0.8810
S&P 500 (0.71%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +18.87%
DAX: +20.29%
CAC: +9.31%
MIB: +26.42%
Stoxx 600: +12.40%
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