Dec 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Tuesday. South Korea led as autos and tech stocks gained on US tariff news. Japan's main boards ended a few points higher. Australia and Taiwan higher, Singapore inched up on gains in banks. Losses in mainland China, Hong Kong ended slightly higher. India and Southeast Asia lower. US futures lower, Europe paring early gains. US dollar unchanged, yen stronger again, rupee at a fresh record low and closing in on 90 per dollar. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields lower across tenors. Crude oil futures flat, precious metals notably lower. Iron ore near top of its year-long trading range. Cryptocurrencies finding a base following Monday's selloff.
Focus remained on Japan assets Tuesday following Monday's sharp bond selloff and appreciation in the yen following hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda. Economists and markets now firmly behind bank hiking base rate by 25 bps with swaps markets showing a more than 80% chance of a hike on 19-Dec and a 90% chance of a hike by January's meeting. JGBs stabilized Tuesday to offer some reprieve following solid demand in today's 10Y auction with a higher bid-to-cover ratio above that of last month. The more difficult 30Y auction is still to take place Thursday after yields touched a record high early Tuesday. Meanwhile the yen now at its strongest in around two weeks.
Elsewhere, the Kospi surged on reports the US had agreed to lower tariffs on South Korea auto exports to 15% and apply the lower rate retrospectively to 1 November. South Korea CPI was unchanged in November but remained above the BOK's target with the bank responding by saying it would start to monitor consumer prices as well as forex markets. Japan's consumer sentiment rose again to its highest in more than 18 months. Australia's current account deficit widened in Q3 with negligible net export contribution to Q3 GDP growth. The rupee edged closer to the 90 per dollar mark however traders suggested the RBI would intervene before this line was crossed.
Fanuc (6954.JP) signed a collaboration deal with Nvidia (NVDA) to develop AI-powered industrial robots. China Vanke (2202.HK) has asked to delay repayment of a CNY2B in notes due on 15-Dec for 12 months. BYD (1211.HK) noted stronger overseas sales and a smaller-than-expected decline in domestic sales in its November monthly sales. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and Kia Corp (000270.KS) among the Seoul-listed auto stocks to rally on reports the US will lower tariffs on South Korea-made autos. Genting Malaysia (3182.MK) resumed trading following a failed privatization bid from its parent Genting Bhd (4715.MK); company secured license to operate casino in New York state.
Digest:
Japan 10Y auction draws firmer demand, alleviating pressure on bonds:
JGBs stabilizing Tuesday after 10Y auction met firmer demand with tail narrowing to 0.04 from November's 0.13, and bid-cover ratio rising to 3.59 from 2.97. Sale providing some semblance of relief following sustained backup in yields that pushed 10Y to highest since mid-2008. Cash market recovering following the auction with yields edging lower. While the ramp in December BOJ rate hike expectations following Governor Ueda's remarks got most of the attention on Monday, concerns about Japan's fiscal trajectory have also weighed on sentiment after government compiled ¥18.3T ($117B) extra budget to fund stimulus, largest since Covid pandemic. Of this amount, ¥11.7T to be funded by new debt with MoF boosting planned issuance of 2Y and 5Y notes by ¥300B each, and T-bills by ¥6.3T (Bloomberg). Selling pressure has nonetheless extended through to superlong sector with 30Y yield hitting new record high, turning attention to Thursday's 30Y auction as clearer test of investor appetite for longer-dated bonds. Comes after November's 30Y auction met weaker demand amid lower bid-cover and wider tail.
Economists coalesce around December BOJ rate hike following Ueda's speech:
BOJ Governor Ueda's speech on Monday continues to reverberate with Nomura, JP Morgan and BofA among economists who brought forward their rate hike calls to December from January. Takeaways mostly focused on his remarks that board will debate pros and cons of rate hike at December MPM, the improving environment for wage hikes ahead of next spring's shunto negotiations, commentary on yen-driven inflation risks, observation that financial conditions remain accommodative amid very low real rates, and fading uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and Japan's economic outlook. His speech followed hawkish-leaning rhetoric from policymakers over recent weeks interpreted as collectively laying groundwork for a December rate hike. Market conviction in a December rate hike strengthened further following Ueda's speech with futures pricing in ~80% chance vs ~60% on Friday. Combination of Ueda's speech and ongoing concerns over Japan's fiscal trajectory also exerted more pressure on JGBs. Policy-sensitive 2Y yield broke through 1% for first time since 2008, 10Y also hit 2008 high and 20Y rose to record high.
US says reduced 15% tariff on South Korea retroactive from 1-Nov:
South Korean autos rallying Tuesday with Hyundai Motor (005380.KS), Kia (000270.KS), KG Mobility (003620.KS) and Hanon Systems (018880.KS) among the leading gainers on Kospi benchmark. Comes after Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Monday announced reduced 15% tariff (from 25%) on South Korea will be retroactive from 1-Nov (Reuters, Yonhap). US will also unstack South Korea's reciprocal tariff to match Japan and EU, ensuring Korea is not left worse off on sectoral tariffs (semis and pharmaceuticals). Lutnick's statement was in response to South Korea's parliament moving to legislate investment commitments it made as part of US-South Korea trade deal. Presidents Trump and Lee finalized trade agreement in late October with South Korea committing to invest $350B, of which $150B will go towards US shipbuilding with remaining $200B to be invested elsewhere. In addition to lowered auto duties, US agreed to reduce tariffs on products such as generic pharmaceuticals and ingredients, timber, lumber and certain aircraft and parts.
Bank of Korea to start monitoring prices as inflation remains elevated:
South Korea's central bank said it will closely monitor consumer inflation but will stick with forecast for price rises to gradually trend lower to near 2.0% (Yonhap). November headline CPI was unchanged at 2.4% y/y, slightly below FactSet consensus 2.4% but above BOK target 2.0%; fell 0.2% on m/m basis although seasonally adjusted m/m figure indicated 0.3% rise. Core inflation was 2.0% y/y from 2.2% in October. Statistics ministry said CPI had remained elevated because of sharp rise in agricultural, petroleum-based products, the latter because of strong dollar and reduced scale of fuel tax cuts. Deputy BOK Governor Kim noted core inflation had eased on decline in service prices, added US dollar-won exchange rate will need to be monitored closely given its influence on import prices. Bank of Korea meets next to decide on interest rates mid-Jan, economists said this inflation data dimmed chances of trim even further (Bloomberg).
China issues initial batch of new rare earth export licenses:
Reuters citing people with knowledge reported at least three Chinese rare earth magnet makers have secured licenses, which would allow them to ship cargoes to overseas customers, seen as fulfillment of a crucial outcome that emerged from trade truce reached between Presidents Xi and Trump for their meeting in South Korea late October. Sources added JL Mag Rare Earth (6680.HK) has obtained licenses to ship to nearly all of its clients, while Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.CH) and Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech (000970.CH) secured licenses to export to some of their clients. Recall China started to design new rare earth licensing regime centered around so-called "general licenses" since Trump-Xi meeting. Meanwhile previous reports also mentioned China was considering plan to ease export controls of rare earths and other restricted materials to US by creating so-called "validated end-user" system that will exclude companies with ties to US military while fast-tracking approvals for other users (Reuters).
Notable Gainers:
+11.3% 003620.KS (KG Mobility): Howard Lutnick confirms US tariffs on South Korean autos have been lowered to 15%, effective 1-Nov; reports November global sales 8,971 units vs year-ago 8,849 units
+6.3% 032350.KS (Lotte Tour Development): November casino revenue KRW51.36B vs year-ago KRW26.08B
+4.5% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): Howard Lutnick confirms US tariffs on South Korean autos have been lowered to 15%, effective 1-Nov; reports November global sales 349,507 units vs year-ago 358,032 units
+4.1% 6608.HK (Bairong): proposes up-to-HK$450M on-market buyback within next 12 months under mandate
+3.7% 2202.HK (China Vanke): reportedly asks to delay repayment of CNY2B notes due 15-Dec for 12 months
Notable Decliners:
-6.7% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): November deliveries
-5.5% 9868.HK (XPeng, Inc.): November deliveries
-5.1% 4715.MK (Genting Malaysia): Genting Berhad secures 73.13% of Genting Malaysia shares at closing date of takeover offer
-4.6% 1530.HK (3SBio Inc): launches 105.2M-shares placement at HK$29.62/share
-3.8% 2593.JP (ITO EN): reports H1 results; operating income ¥13.93B, (3%) vs year-ago ¥14.39B
-0.8% 2015.HK (Li Auto): November deliveries 33,181 vehicles
Data:
Economic:
South Korea November
CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and +2.4% in prior month
CPI ex-food & energy +2.0% vs +2.2% in prior month
Australia
October Building Approvals M/M (6.4%) versus +11.1% in prior month
Q3 Current Account (A$16.6B) versus (A$16.2B) in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: 0.17 or +0.00% to 49303.45
Hang Seng: 61.79 or +0.24% to 26095.05
Shanghai Composite: (16.29) or (0.42%) to 3897.71
Shenzhen Composite: (16.67) or (0.67%) to 2462.26
ASX200: 14.50 or +0.17% to 8579.70
KOSPI: 74.56 or +1.90% to 3994.93
SENSEX: (435.08) or (0.51%) to 85206.82
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.32 or +0.21% to 155.8000
$-KRW: (4.17) or (0.28%) to 1467.5100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 0.6554
$-INR: +0.24 or +0.27% to 89.8502
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.0689
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