Dec 18 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher Thursday, with Spain, Netherlands, Sweden and Germany seeing gains of over 1%. All European super sectors ended in positive territory. Today's broader risk-on move tabbed to better tech/AI sentiment following big beat and raise from MU (OpenAI funding headlines likely supportive as well) and cooler than expected US November CPI (core CPI 2.6% y/y, below consensus 3.0% and lowest since Mar-21). Gold +0.64% to $4401.9/oz. WTI Crude (Jan 26) +1.13% to $56.57.
Meanwhile, focus on flurry of central bank announcements in Europe. As expected, the BoE cut key Bank Rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in another narrow vote. Rate setting committee (MPC) voted 5-4 in favor of the move after Governor Bailey sided with the doves after voting for unchanged policy in November. He highlighted that data news since the last meeting showed disinflation now more established, inflation past peak and measures in Budget to reduce inflation further. Further easing dependent on evolution of inflation outlook. Expects rate to continue on gradual downward path. The ECB left key deposit rate unchanged at 2% for fourth consecutive meeting after updated forecasts reconfirmed inflation should stabilize at 2% target over the medium term. Today's update included first look at 2028 macro forecast, which shows inflation at target. Bar to further rates cut thought to be high and sell-side consensus is for unchanged policy throughout 2026. As expected, Norway's Norges Bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4%, judging that a restrictive stance is still needed to bring inflation back to target. Also as expected, Sweden's Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75%. Statement said economic prospects have improved since September, with growth stronger than expected and clearer signs of recovery in overall activity, although it will still take time for the economy to return to normal levels.
Other macro updates included narrow-than-expected Swiss trade surplus amid a fall in exports. However, exports to US increased after trade agreement. French business confidence improved on upturn in manufacturing and retail trade.
Elsewhere, EU leaders to meet for two-day summit to discuss funding for Ukraine. Press reports said US pressuring leaders not to use frozen Russia assets because it thinks it will reduce incentives to agree a truce.
Among European sectors, Retail a leading outperformer with strong support coming from rally in Currys (CURY.LN) stock after strong H1 profitability. H&M (HM.B.SS) helped by a broker upgrade. UK names also helped as BoE rate-cut expectations improved the consumer outlook. Focus also on BIRK in the US reporting sales and profits rose on strong demand for premium sandals and clogs.
Among other stock movers today, BP (BP.LN) has appointed Meg O'Neill (Woodside Energy Group CEO) as bp's next CEO, effective 1-Apr-26; Murray Auchincloss has decided to step down from his position as CEO and director of the board, effective 18-Dec. Carol Howle, current EVP, supply, trading & shipping of bp, will serve as interim CEO until O'Neill joins as CEO. Rheinmetall (RHM.GR) to sell activities of civil division Power Systems; targeting sale in Q1 of 2026. Also updated FY25 guidance. Aeroport de Paris (ADP.FP) shares weaker on French Transport Regulatory Authority decision to not approve airport charges. Whitbread (WTVB.LN) among leading Stoxx Europe 600 gainers as holder Corvex Management called for strategic review of the Company's direction and capital allocation.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +2.10%, Retail +2.09%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.79%, Technology +1.35%, Construct & Mtls +1.24%, Basic Resources +1.23%, Consumer Products and Services +1.16%
Underperformers:
Utilities +0.09%, Autos & Parts +0.21%, Health Care +0.29%, Chemicals +0.36%, Insurance +0.41%, Travel & Leisure +0.46%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.60%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.64%, Energy+0.64%, Telecom +0.83%, Real Estate +0.91%, Banks +0.96%
Macro:
Central banks
BoE MPC votes by majority of 5-4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% -- link
ECB Governing Council keeps the three key ECB interest rates unchanged -- link
ECB Officials Say Cycle of Rate Cuts Is Most Likely Over -- Bloomberg
Swedish Riksbank policy rate unchanged at 1.75%; rate expected to remain at this level for some time to come -- link
Norges Bank's Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4% -- link
Czechs Hold Rates as New Government's Plans Blur Inflation Path -- Bloomberg
Geopolitics
France
France's budget D-day set for Friday -- POLITICO
Ireland
GDP forecast 2025 +13.1% vs prior estimate +8.0%, 2026 (5.7%) vs prior +2.0% - ESRI
Germany
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+16.7% BALCO.SS (Balco Group SEK18.90, +2.70) -- SEK 200M order from Meyer Werft
+13.0% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €0.75, +0.09) -- additional U.S. patent for DSR granted
+10.7% COTN.SW (COMET Holding CHF224.00, +21.60) -- initiated outperform at Oddo
+8.5% SIFG.NA (Sif Holding €6.63, +0.52) -- confirms manufacturing ramp-up progress and 2025-26 outlook
+7.4% CURY.LN (Currys £1.36, +0.09) -- H1 earnings
+6.6% PRIC.B.SS (Pricer SEK4.06, +0.25) -- SEK140M order
+6.3% TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat €9.16, +0.54) -- Danske Bank upgrade
+6.1% WTB.LN (Whitbread £25.95, +1.50) -- holder Corvex Management calls for strategic review
+5.4% WINE.LN (Naked Wines £0.70, +0.04) -- trading statement
+5.2% RAA.GR (Rational €662.50, +33.00) -- UBS upgrade
+5.1% EOLU.B.SS (Eolus Aktiebolag SEK40.25, +1.95) -- initiated buy at Sparebank 1 Markets
+4.4% RKET.GR (Rocket Internet €18.80, +0.80) -- Scherzer & Co. open letter
+4.4% CTNK.GR (centrotherm international €9.40, +0.40) -- Ardian Semiconductor completes acquisition of Solarpark Blautal's 90% stake in the company
+4.0% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.65, +0.03) -- 12.5MW contract with Octopus Energy Generation
+3.9% RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial £4.49, +0.17) -- BofA upgrade
+3.6% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz SEK187.75, +6.60) -- Oddo upgrade
+3.3% PNE3.GR (PNE €10.10, +0.32) -- sale of the "Bebensee" wind farm (34 MW) to ENCAVIS
+3.0% IWG.LN (International Workplace Group £2.32, +0.07) -- Kerrisdale Capital says going long the stock
+2.3% SYNT.LN (Synthomer £0.61, +0.01) -- £50M trade receivables purchasing arrangement with Rainbow State Limited
+1.9% MGN.NO (Magnora NOK20.20, +0.38) -- initiated buy at Arctic Securities
+1.6% NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group €25.14, +0.40) -- Alba and the CVC Funds renew their commitments regarding their joint investment in Naturgy Energy Group (
+1.1% DNO.NO (DNO ASA NOK15.13, +0.16) -- North Sea offtake agreements with Exxon and Shell; raises up to $410M in financing
+0.9% OVS.IM (OVS €4.56, +0.04) -- Q3 earnings
+0.8% ACR.NO (Axactor NOK7.38, +0.06) -- sale of smaller-sized portfolios in Germany and Spain for ~€15M
Notable Decliners
-34.7% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK0.35, -0.19) -- Q2 earnings
-23.9% TMO.LN (Time Out Group £0.09, -0.03) -- prelim. FY earnings; £8M share placing at 8p/share and conversion of debt into equity
-13.9% NXQ.LN (Nexteq £0.72, -0.12) -- FY trading update
-11.1% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €114.50, -14.30) -- French Transport Regulatory Authority decision on airport charges for the period 1-Apr-26 to 30-Mar-27; Oddo downgrade
-4.2% SESG.FP (SES €5.13, -0.23) -- comments on Moody's rating action and reiterates deleveraging commitments
-3.2% VIG.AV (Vienna Insurance Group €64.40, -2.10)
-3.1% TOM.NO (Tomra Systems NOK133.40, -4.30) -- Sparebank 1 Markets downgrade
-1.7% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK624.00, -11.00) -- Barclays downgrade
-0.8% BUFAB.SS (Bufab SEK101.28, -0.80) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-0.8% SKIS.B.SS (SkiStar SEK170.20, -1.30) -- Q1 earnings
-0.5% EXE.FP (Exel Industries €36.50, -0.20) -- FY earnings
-0.1% VIRP.FP (Virbac €346.00, -0.50) -- acquires Felanorm for ~£100M
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR)
UK: WH Smith (SMWH.LN), ProService Building Services Marketplace (PRO.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Nov Trade Balance CHF3.84B vs consensus CHF5.3B and prior revised CHF4.20B from CHF4.32B
November Swiss Watch Exports (7.3%) to CHF2.2B
France Dec Business Survey 102 vs consensus 98 and prior 98
Netherlands Nov Unemployment Rate 4.0% vs consensus 4.0% and prior 4.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 26): +$0.63 or +1.13% to $56.57
€-$ (0.0006) or (0.05%) to 1.1737
£-$ +0.0022 or +0.16% to 1.3396
€-£ (0.0019) to 0.8760
S&P 500 +1.37%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +20.37%
DAX: +21.55%
CAC: +10.43%
MIB: +30.02%
Stoxx 600: +15.31%
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