Mar 19 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended lower across the region Thursday as Brent crude futures rose to over $114/bl. Steepest losses in Japan with the Nikkei 225 down almost 3.5%; Hang Seng down more than 2.0%, mainland China boards also fell. Sharp reversals in Seoul, Taipei and Sydney which closed at a YTD low. Southeast Asia benchmarks all lower, India also significantly weaker amid renewed pressure on the rupee. US futures lower, Europe down in opening trades. US dollar DXY index still hovering near 100; yen stronger after BOJ decision, AUD, NZD also higher; onshore yuan notably weaker. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also higher, Australian sovereigns rising to near 15-year highs. Brent crude up more than 6.0%; WTI steady at around $96/bl. Precious metals sharply lower with gold at six-week low, iron ore under pressure as BHP import restrictions are eased in China. Cryptocurrencies lower.
Asia markets sharply lower across the board Thursday following an overnight escalation of attacks on Gulf gas fields that sent Brent crude prices to above $113/bl and gas prices up around 25% in Europe. Energy markets also reacted negatively to threats from President Trump to attack Iran's main gas installations if Tehran continues its own barrage against Qatar's LNG facilities. The surge in energy prices added to worries globally over the impact on inflation, particularly after the Federal Reserve Wednesday and Bank of Japan today warned the conflict had clouded the economic outlook while both holding rates steady. The BoE and ECB are also both expected to hold rates steady later today. Treasuries and JGBs also sold off again Thursday while several Asia currencies weakened past key support levels including the oil-exposed won, rupee and peso. Meanwhile, traders on alert for the yen to cross the 160 per dollar mark despite more warnings today from the finance minister over intervention.
In other news, Australia employment increased notably but the unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose. New Zealand's economy grew in 0.2% q/q in Q4-25 but was weaker than economist and RBNZ forecasts. Japan's machine orders for January fell but by less than expected. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority held its base rate steady following the Fed's no change decision. Thailand's parliament voted Anutin Charnvirakul in to be country's prime minister to serve for a second term.
HSBC (5.HK) is considering cutting thousands of jobs in middle- and back-office roles as it integrates AI technology. Brent's rise weighing on many industrial stocks although there were a few notable gains including at Woodside Energy (WDS.AU), Adani Total Gas (542066.IN) and CNOOC (883.HK). Tencent (700.HK) pledged to at least double its investment in AI-related products and models to more than $5.2B this year. Xiaomi (1810.HK) released details of its latest AI auto models and a refreshed version of its SU7 EV. HDFC Bank (500180.IN) chair resigned over differences in 'values and ethics' with the bank.
Digest:
BOJ leaves policy rate unchanged as expected:
BOJ kept the uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. Vote count was 8-1 as Takata continued to dissent with a counterproposal for a 25 bp hike. Assessment was broadly unchanged with the main notable addition of Middle East developments. Acknowledged the volatility in global markets and significant increases in crude oil prices, and future developments warrant attention. This has affected the inflation outlook; while core CPI still expected to temporarily slow to a pace below a 2%, oil prices then expected to apply upward pressure. Did not specify the timeframe, though reiterated the longstanding projection for underlying inflation to be consistent with the price stability target in the second half of the projection period (from H2 of FY26). Takata and Tamura voted against the inflation outlook assessment, arguing underlying inflation has already generally reached the target. Tamura said the target would likely be achieved from the beginning of FY26 (starting next month). Guidance was unchanged, with real rates significantly low, rate hikes will continue as long as the recovery path continues to track in line with their main outlook scenario. Governor Ueda's remarks at the press conference were broadly neutral in the assessment of inflation vs growth risks from Middle East developments (Reuters).
Iran, Israeli attacks on Middle East energy facilities unnerve markets:
Overnight attacks by Iran and Israel on Gulf gas installations escalated overnight, threatening to further disrupt supplies (Reuters, Bloomberg, link). After Israel struck world's largest natural gas field, South Pars, Iran retaliated with missile strike against Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant, which experienced extensive damage. Iran also threatened to hit facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. However, early indications US looking to de-escalate after President Trump posted US knew nothing about Israel's attack and that Israel would not launch additional strikes on South Pars (though he accompanied that by warning South Pars will be destroyed if Qatar LNG attacked again). Media sources also said Trump not in favor of further strikes against Iranian energy facilities and believed Tehran received the message. As US weighs efforts to unblock Strait of Hormuz, Reuters sources said Trump administration considering high risk troop deployment with options to place them on Hormuz shorelines to help secure passage for oil tankers, sending them to Kharg Island or using them to help secure Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
Tencent pledges much higher AI investments in 2026 as it bets on WeChat agents:
Tencent (700.HK) pledged to at least double investments in AI products and models to more than CNY36B ($5.2B) in 2026, making bigger bet in the technology's capability to drive growth as it hopes to utilize OpenClaw-style agents to gain advantage in the increasingly competitive space (Bloomberg, SCMP). CFO said company plans to fund investments by reducing buybacks that helped propel stock price in recent years. Came as Tencent revenue grew 13% y/y in Q4 to CNY194.4B, beating estimates CNY194.1B after gaming revenue surpassed expectations. Noted Tencent ramping up efforts to develop AI agents that could potentially be game-changer with releases series of products using OpenClaw framework in past few weeks. More attention on development of built-in WeChat AI agent for 1.4B users to automate daily tasks, which some analysts said company well-positioned due to massive user data within its product portfolio and Tencent's track record for delivering consumer-focused products. Bloomberg added Tencent President Lau also said company faces fewer regulatory risks than TikTok in US, adding they are "completely controllable".
Thailand's Anutin wins parliamentary vote to serve as prime minister:
Anutin Charnvirakul secured Thailand parliamentary vote Thursday to serve as prime minister for second term, allowing him to quickly form new government (BangkokPost). Anutin secured 293 of 500 votes, challenger from opposition People's Party secured 119 votes while 86 abstained. Becomes first PM to be voted back into office in almost 20 years. Government coalition comprises of 16 parties but Anutin's Bhumjaithai Party holds 191, by far largest single party, second biggest Pheu Thai party also in coalition while mandate viewed by political analysts as one of most stable this century (Bloomberg). Anutin immediately faced with fuel shortages and price hikes, supply chain problems caused by Iran war with Thailand seen as one of most vulnerable economies in Asia to conflict. Quick formation of government reduces likelihood of delay to 2026-27 budget allowing PM to counter weakness in economy with fiscal measures instead of relying on BOK moves.
Indian stocks, rupee under pressure amid oil price shock:
Indian stocks falling sharply Thursday, snapping three-day rally, as Brent crude surged past $110/bbl after strikes between Iran and Israel on critical energy facilities. Sensex has dropped ~12% YTD with Indian stocks have shed more than $600B in value as oil shock fuels concerns about overall growth, inflation and corporate earnings expectations. MSCI India on track for worst quarterly performance against MSCI Asia Pacific since 2004 (Bloomberg) while slew of sell-side firms, including Morgan Stanley (Bloomberg), Citi and Nomura (Reuters), have turned cautious on Indian stocks. Country also facing double-whammy of weaker currency, where rupee keeps hitting new low versus dollar and further aggravates foreign capital outflows. Bloomberg reported RBI's net-short dollar book is nearing $100B across offshore and onshore markets as it defends rupee, while the amount was $67.8B in January, which analysts said could become headwind as they create recurring demand for dollars when contracts mature. Another Bloomberg article highlighted central bank's intervention weighing on India's foreign exchange reserves, now enough to cover for only 8.7 months of imports, lowest in three years, as analysts said trying to defend a particular level could become "very problematic very quickly".
Notable Gainers:
+3.4% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): launches three agentic models; electric vehicle SU7 to debut later today
+0.5% 1605.JP (INPEX Corp): oil prices surge following reports of Iranian gasfields being attacked
Notable Decliners:
-29.9% 263750.KS (PearlAbyss): Newly launched Crimson Desert receives disappointing Metacritic scores
-6.8% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): margins to be pressured from increased AI spend
-4.8% 6594.JP (Nidec): shareholders reportedly considering filing lawsuit for damages
-4.4% 285A.JP (Kioxia Holdings): Bain Capital-affiliated BCPE Pangea Cayman entities cut co
-3.7% 4523.JP (Eisai): To suspend administration of Tazverik (tazemetostat)
Data:
Economic:
Economic
Japan
January core machinery orders (5.5%) m/m vs consensus (9.6%) and revised +16.1% in prior month
Australia
February employment +48.9K m/m vs consensus +20.0K and +17.8K in January
Unemployment rate 4.3% vs consensus 4.1% and 4.1% in January
Participation rate 66.9% vs consensus 66.7% and 66.7% in January
New Zealand
Q4 GDP +0.2% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and revised +0.9% in Q3 (10:45 NZDT)
GDP +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and revised +1.1% in Q3
Markets:
Nikkei: (1,866.87) or (3.38%) to 53372.53
Hang Seng: (524.84) or (2.02%) to 25500.58
Shanghai Composite: (56.43) or (1.39%) to 4006.55
Shenzhen Composite: (60.93) or (2.27%) to 2619.95
ASX200: (142.80) or (1.65%) to 8497.80
KOSPI: (161.81) or (2.73%) to 5763.22
SENSEX: (1,892.34) or (2.47%) to 74811.79
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.73) or (0.46%) to 159.1510
$-KRW: (8.59) or (0.57%) to 1500.5900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.05% to 0.7027
$-INR: +0.21 or +0.22% to 93.3546
$-CNY: +0.03 or +0.42% to 6.9020
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