May 01 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asian equities advanced Friday in thin trade. Japan and Australia both higher, while most other markets offline for Labor Day holiday. S&P 500 futures inching up while Nasdaq futures flat. Treasury yields flat. Yen pared some Friday afternoon gains to trade 156.4 a dollar following sharp gains after first forex intervention by Tokyo in two years. Crude steadied and held its second weekly gain. Gold and silver lower. Bitcoin edging up.
Japan's first intervention in currency market since 2024 dominated macro headlines with yen surging overnight and again on late Friday afternoon to as high as 155.5 a dollar to two-month high after currency breached 160-dollar handle earlier on Thursday. Intervention follows stepped-up verbal warnings over the past week ahead Golden Week holiday period. Sources said US officials were notified ahead of the move. Also in Japan, Tokyo core inflation unexpectedly eased further below 2% target due partly to fuel and education subsidies. Ex-energy inflation also fell below 2% to lowest in over a year. Japan final manufacturing PMI improved on flash read with output expanding at quickest pace since early 2014. Iran war stretched supply lead times by most in 15 years while production costs rose by most since Oct-2022.
Nothing incremental from latest Iran headlines with Trump sticking with naval blockade of Iranian ports while Teheran reasserted its right over Strait of Hormuz and threatens "painful response" if US renews attacks. Oil prices steadied after Thursday's surge while no signs the strait would reopen anytime soon. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea April exports maintain prior month's strong momentum with semiconductor shipments up 173.5% y/y. US and China top trade officials and top diplomats held separate talks, laying final groundwork for President Trump's trip to Beijing in mid-May.
Nissan Motor (7201.JP) cancels EV production plans at its Mississippi plant. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) plans to build three vehicle assembly plants in India, tripling its production capacity in the country to 1M units by the 2030s. Wuliangye (000858.CH) sharply revised down its earnings for first nine months of 2025 with its chairman still under investigation by authorities.
Digest:
Yen rallies as Japan intervenes in FX market:
Yen strength the big story in FX markets after Nikkei government source confirmed government and BOJ intervened by buying yen and selling dollars. Action follows series of verbal warnings that escalated over recent days, culminating in Japan FX chief Mimura giving "final evacuation" warning to markets and Finance Minister Katayama saying time for "decisive action" was nearing (Reuters). Bloomberg sources noted US economic officials were notified ahead of the action. Intervention speculation was given weight after Katayama repeated her FX warnings following recent meeting with Treasury Secretary Bessent, implying no objections from Bessent (Bloomberg).
Marked first direct intervention since in almost two years after yen breached 160-dollar handle for first time since mid-2024, a level that strategists had flagged as an intervention trigger. Yen came under renewed pressure in aftermath of BOJ hold decision and Governor Ueda refraining from giving guidance on rates (Bloomberg). Hawkish-leaning takeaways from Fed's hold decision further spotlighted attention on US-Japan rate differentials. Recent dollar support has also been attributed to tensions in Middle East with crude oil spiking amid lack of diplomatic traction. Yen rallied 2.5% Thursday, reaching two-month high against dollar.
Already thoughts more intervention may be needed in similar vein to repeated actions in 2024 (Bloomberg). Back then authorities spent ~$100B in separate instances to support yen when it breached 160-handle. Japan's FX chief Mimura cryptically remarked government only at beginning of holiday period and remains in close contact with US (Bloomberg). Also warned authorities maintaining readiness to intervene in crude oil futures market.
Tokyo core inflation eases on subsidies; Japan factory activity firms but cost pressures rise:
Tokyo April core inflation unexpectedly eased to 1.5% y/y from 1.7% in March, lower than consensus 1.8%. Fuel and education subsidies were the biggest drags, keeping overall pricing pressures contained with headline inflation rising to 1.5% from 1.4%, below consensus 1.7%. Ex-energy inflation fell to 1.9% from 2.3%, lower than consensus 2.2% and smallest read in over a year. Energy drags moderated further with costs declining 4.6% compared to March's 7.5% drop. Rice pressures continued to ease with price growth slowing to 3.6% from 8.3%.
Japan April final manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 from prior month's 51.6, also an improvement on flash read 54.9. Output expanded at quickest pace since early 2014 amid acceleration in new orders. Appeared to be driven by more stockpiling with stocks of purchases turning positive for first time in ten months. Supply chain strains evident with Iran war stretching lead times by most in 15 years. Pricing pressures intensified with production costs (raw materials, oil and transport) rising by most since Oct-2022. Output price inflation climbed by most since late 2022. Economic uncertainties saw one-year outlook fall to second-lowest level since Jun-2020, signaling current upturn in manufacturing activity at risk of fading.
South Korea exports continue to surge amid robust global chip demand:
Customs exports extended surge in April with 48.0% y/y rise in April, higher than Reuters median forecast of 45.3%, following revised 49.2% in March as exports exceeded $80B for second consecutive month at $85.9B. Bloomberg calculations showed calendar-adjusted shipments also rose 48.0%. Imports increased 16.7% y/y, also beating consensus 14.5% rise and 13.2% in March, resulting in a trade surplus of $23.8B, down from $25.7B in previous month. Booming global chip demand continues to power export growth as Seoul's trade ministry attributed it to semiconductor super cycle (Yonhap). Semiconductor exports were at $31.9B, surging 173.5% y/y and following March's record $32.8B, on robust AI demand and continued rise of memory chip prices, signaling resilience despite uncertainties triggered by Middle East conflicts. Shipments to China climbed 62.5% y/y, rising for sixth consecutive month, amid strong demand for semiconductor and IT products. Exports to US rose 54%. Press discussions focused on how strong exports may mask underlying vulnerabilities as war in Iran has pushed up energy prices, raised import costs and added to inflation pressure, presenting challenges to policymakers. Recall new BOK Governor Shin called for "cautious, flexible" monetary policy amid heightened uncertainties (Yonhap).
Notable Decliners:
-14.6% 4088.JP (Air Water): TSE designates Air Water as security on special alert, effective 1-May; Imposes ¥91.2M violation penalty
-3.1% 4704.JP (Trend Micro): Announces TrendAI and Anthropic advance AI-powered vulnerability detection and risk mitigation with Claude Opus 4.7
Data:
Economic
Japan April
Tokyo core CPI +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and +1.7% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +1.9% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and +2.3% in prior month
Overall CPI +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and +1.4% in prior month
Final manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs flash 54.9 and 51.6 in prior month
South Korea
April trade balance $23.8B vs $25.7B in prior month
Exports +48.0% y/y vs revised +49.2% in prior month
Imports +16.72% y/y vs +13.2% in prior month
Australia
Q1 PPI +0.4% q/q vs +0.8% in Q4
PPI +3.0% y/y vs +3.5% in Q4
Markets:
Nikkei: 228.20 or +0.38% to 59513.12
Hang Seng: 0.00 or 0.00% to 25776.53
Shanghai Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 4112.16
Shenzhen Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 2776.23
ASX200: 64.00 or +0.74% to 8729.80
KOSPI: 0.00 or 0.00% to 6598.87
SENSEX: 0.00 or 0.00% to 76913.50
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.17) or (0.11%) to 156.4410
$-KRW: (0.96) or (0.07%) to 1473.0900
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 0.7195
$-INR: +0.13 or +0.13% to 94.8866
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.8272
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