Sep 01 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Monday. The Hang Seng comfortably outperformed other benchmarks after Alibaba's results late Friday. Mainland China boards also higher again. Improved sentiment in India leading to outperformance there too, Thailand bounced back after PM was dismissed Friday. Elsewhere, some steep losses in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as tech came under pressure. Indonesia lower but well off trough following weekend street protests. US futures quiet as markets remain closed for a holiday, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar lower at five-week low, no significant Asia forex movement ex rupiah weakness. US bond markets largely unchanged. Crude lower, gold surging to fresh record high, iron ore futures sharply lower but copper holding up.
Largely negative follow through for Asia markets from decision by US to revoke China chip permits, as well as read through from a negative end to the Nasdaq Friday. The Hang Seng was dominated by a 19% surge in Alibaba post a strong surge in cloud revenue and reports of a new AI chip. More gains for mainland China boards as Shenzhen again led the main benchmarks while technology stocks outperformed on the CSI 300. Traders shrugged off other weekend trade headlines: a US appellate court ruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs were illegal, and the Nikkei reported a US-Japan trade talks had stalled over Washington's demand that Japan buy more of its rice.
In regional developments, China's official and private PMI readings hovered near the mark that indicates expansion with the private reading slightly above 50, and the official index slightly below. Other readings showed ASEAN manufacturing expanded again in contrast to contraction in tech-dominated nations. South Korea export growth slowed and missed expectations despite solid growth in chip and auto shipments. India stocks outperformed on improved sentiment following PM Modi's trip to Shanghai and over optimism on improved China ties. Indonesia stocks recovered from a sharp gap lower first thing after large-scale street protests escalated while Thailand's SET bounced back from Friday's losses as political parties began jockeying for position over the appointment of a new PM.
Alibaba (9988.HK) shares soared after it posted a much bigger rise in cloud revenue, which overshadowed a top-line miss. BYD (1211.HK) missed on H1 earnings and posted a narrower-than-expected profit margin as steep discounting took its toll; stock down sharply. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) shares noticeably lower after the US revoked its validated end-user agreement for shipments to China.
Digest:
China official manufacturing PMI remains in contraction:
Official manufacturing PMI was 49.4 in August, compared with consensus 49.5, following 49.3 in prior month. Marks fifth straight month in contraction territory. Production logged slightly stronger growth while declines in new orders and exports eased marginally. Employment declines virtually steady, finished goods inventories fell at the sharpest pace in three months. Amid ongoing attention on inflation metrics, input prices gains highest since Oct-24, leading to similar statistical milestone in output prices though remaining in moderate contraction. NBS noted sector outperformance in pharmas, PCs, communications and electronic equipment. Description implied downstream sectors were relatively better while upstream hampered by higher materials costs. Nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.3 vs consensus 50.2 and prior month's 50.1, maintaining year-to-date mild expansion. Improvement driven by YTD high in services. Several business-related sectors remained above 60, while capital markets topped 70 (consistent with equity market strength). Real estate and retail remained notable laggards. Construction swung to contraction for the first time since January, attributed to bad weather. Composite PMI rose to 50.5 from 50.2.
Japan and South Korean semis under pressure, China tech stocks rally:
Prominent tech and semiconductor firms under pressure in Asian trade Monday, taking cues from Friday's tech weakness in US that was attributed to underwhelming results from AI-related names and renewed concerns about China competition. Latter brought into focus by media report that Alibaba (9988.HK) has developed new domestically produced chip that can serve broader range of AI inferencing tasks, reducing foreign reliance. Advantest (6857.JP) and SoftBank (9984.JP) among heaviest decliners across Asia, accounting for large proportion of decline on Nikkei. Company-specific developments also getting attention after US Commerce Department revoked waiver for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) that allowed them to ship chipmaking equipment to China (Bloomberg, Reuters). Revision to Validated End-User (VEU) authorization to take effect in 120 days, after which companies will require licenses to continue operations. Tech weakness in Japan and South Korea contrasting with China, where positive takeaways from Alibaba's cloud revenue growth translating to broader strength in tech space with Baidu (9888.HK) and SMIC (981.HK) standouts (Bloomberg).
ASEAN manufacturers expand again in August, tech-dominated northern nations contract further, PMIs show:
S&PGlobal's August PMIs revealed further expansion in ASEAN nations, contraction in technology-dominated northern nations, continuing July's trend, as new export orders tumbled in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Taiwan's overall reading reflected subdued external demand from weaker global economy. Output, new orders fell although at softer pace versus July, survey respondents noted US tariff uncertainty leading to greater client hesitation to commit to new projects. South Korea's reading showed further contraction albeit at a slower pace at 48.3 from 40.0 in July. Among ASEAN nations, Thailand's reading rose to 52.7 from 51.9, fourth consecutive month of expansion; output rose at fastest in 13 months on new orders; business confidence at highest in more than two years. Indonesia saw renewed expansion as output, new orders rose for first time in five months, strongest export rise in almost two years; index at 51.2 from 49.2. China's private sector PMI showed return to growth in August, new business expanded at fastest in six months however RatingDog economist warned it resembled 'breath of relief' rather than sustained trend. Index reading at 50.5 from 49.5 in July.
Indonesia asset prices fall further as street protests escalate, Thailand markets weather political storm for now:
Indonesia rupiah, stocks lower for second consecutive session Monday amid escalating street protests, growing concerns over political stability. At issue is IDR 50M per month lawmakers' housing allowance set against higher regional taxes for most citizens, elevated inflation. Sunday, President Prabowo cancelled China trip, withdrew housing allowance after looters targeted finance minister's home, houses belonging to several lawmakers (FT). Jakarta's JSX down 1.4% at close, recovering from 3% loss at open; rupiah 0.6% weaker amid Bank Indonesia pledge to support forex, bond markets (Reuters). Equity correction comes just days after JSX reached record high but analyst cited by Bloomberg said while protests likely to be short lived, investors could use opportunity to reassess positions. Meanwhile, Thailand's SET recovered 0.5% by late Monday to partly reverse 1% decline Friday, baht steady, following dismissal of PM Shinawatra late Friday. Analysts said constitutional court decision largely expected, follows weeks of foreign investor outflow making valuations already depressed. Parliament to hold special session this week to appoint new premier with several parties jockeying for position over weekend (BangkokPost).
US Court of Appeals rules reciprocal tariffs illegal; duties to stay in effect to allow for appeal:
On Friday, US federal appeals court upheld Court of International Trade decision in May that ruled President Trump's tariffs imposed under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal (FT, Bloomberg, Washington Post). Appeals court ruling applies to baseline tariffs as well as fentanyl tariffs levied on China, Canada and Mexico. Importantly, appeals court left tariffs in place until mid-October with case expected to reach Supreme Court. USTR Greer played down immediate ramifications of ruling for existing negotiations, noting talks with major trading partners are ongoing (Reuters). Media reports have in recent days also noted Trump administration looking to broaden categories of goods subject to Section 232 tariffs (which aren't affected by appeals court ruling)as a backstop against an unfavorable ruling on reciprocal duties (link). Media discussions extended to consequences of an unfavorable ruling for longer-term bond yields after CBO estimated tariff revenue reducing cumulative deficits by $4T through 2035 (link). Also risk that Trump administration will have to refund duties already collected under tariffs deemed illegal.
Notable Gainers:
+18.5% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): reports Q1 non-GAAP EPADS CNY14.75 vs FactSet CNY14.16; bigger-than-expected 26% y/y rise in Alicloud revenue growth helped overshadow overall top-line miss
+14.6% 200.HK (Melco International Development): reports H1 net income attributable HK$350.8M vs year-ago (HK$253.2M)
+7.2% 3774.JP (Internet Initiative Japan): Japan Post Bank reportedly to issue digital currency developed by IIJ's DeCurret DCP
+7.1% 285.HK (BYD Electronic (International)): reports H1 net income attributable CNY1.73B, +14% vs year-ago CNY1.52B
+3.5% 4523.JP (Eisai): FDA Approves LEQEMBI IQLIK (lecanemab-irmb) subcutaneous injection for maintenance dosing for the treatment of early Alzheimer's Disease
Notable Decliners:
-5.2% 1211.HK (BYD Co.): reports H1 earnings
-4.8% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): US to revoke validated end-user authorizations in China
-3.0% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): US to revoke validated end-user authorizations in China
Data:
Economic:
China August
Official manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs consensus 49.5 and 49.3 in prior month
Non-manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs consensus 50.2 and 50.1 in prior month
Composite PMI 50.5 vs 50.2 in prior month
RatingDog PMI (formerly Caixin PMI) 50.5 vs consensus 49.8 and 49.5 in prior month
Japan
Q2 MOF corporate survey capex +7.6% y/y vs consensus +6.1% and +6.4% in prior quarter
Ex-software capex +5.2% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and +6.9% in prior quarter
August final manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs flash 49.9 and 48.9 in prior month
South Korea
August trade balance $6.5B vs FactSet consensus $5.7B and $6.6B in prior month
Exports +1.3% y/y vs FactSet consensus +2.1% and +5.9% in prior month
Imports (4.0%) y/y vs FactSet consensus +0.3% and +0.7% in prior month
August manufacturing PMI 48.3 vs 48.0 in July
Australia
Q2 business inventories +0.1% vs consensus +0.2% and +0.8% in Q1
Company profits (2.4%) vs consensus +1.1% and (0.5%) in Q1
August ANZ-Indeed job advertisements +0.1% m/m vs revised (0.6)%) in July
July building approvals (8.2%) m/m vs consensus (5.0%) and revised +12.2% in June
Markets:
Nikkei: (529.68) or (1.24%) to 42188.79
Hang Seng: 539.80 or +2.15% to 25617.42
Shanghai Composite: 17.60 or +0.46% to 3875.53
Shenzhen Composite: 21.16 or +0.87% to 2464.83
ASX200: (45.40) or (0.51%) to 8927.70
KOSPI: (43.08) or (1.35%) to 3142.93
SENSEX: 490.31 or +0.61% to 80299.96
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.14 or +0.10% to 147.1870
$-KRW: +3.30 or +0.24% to 1392.2700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.09% to 0.6546
$-INR: +0.11 or +0.12% to 88.2676
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1298
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