Sep 02 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices have closed in negative territory, near the session's lows. In trade-related news, Politico reported on mobilization effort by European Socialists to oppose US-EU trade deal. Socialists, second biggest party in the European Parliament, will make job of building majority to pass deal more challenging. Socialist opposition may be aimed at extracting concessions from the EU executive rather than serious attempt to undermine the deal. Note that European Commission President von der Leyen member of the center-right European People's Party (EPP) has previously worked cross-party to pursue moderate agenda. However, Socialists lost some of their leverage in last year's election and recently forced von der Leyen to make commitments on social spending in a confidence vote. European Council President Costa, a Socialist member, broke ranks with von der Leyen and conceded war in Ukraine was a factor in EU accepting US trade terms
In politics, France's National Rally (RN) will hold talks with PM Bayrou today, but said it was preparing for snap election as it expects this week's effort to fail and government to collapse. RN hold the most seats in French National Assembly and opinion polls predict it will win first round of a snap vote. Recall that in last year's snap vote, election candidates withdraw in the second round and Socialists and Macron's centrists ran a joint candidate list to block RN. Meanwhile, Les Echos reported that the center-right Republicans are divided on the confidence vote. In macro-news, no surprise in Eurozone inflation update. Headline CPI at 2.1% y/y in August versus consensus 2.0% and prior 2.0%. Firmer German reading last week had contributed to some upside risk for today's update. Note, core at 2.3% versus forecast 2.3% and prior 2.4%; services at 3.1% versus prior 3.2%. Country readings showed inflation edged up in Germany versus prior month, eased in France, unchanged in Italy and Spain. Limited read-through for ECB policy. Majority of officials have largely reiterated President Lagarde comments from September meeting that inflation in a good place. July ECB minutes published last week saw risks to inflation outlook as balanced. Dovish policymakers continue to warn of potential disinflationary headwinds from euro strength, softer energy prices and slowing core inflation. Hawkish officials have pointed to improving growth backdrop and resilience in labor market. Also on the ECB front, latest comments from officials support notion of extended pause in rate cut cycle. In a Reuters interview, Executive Board member Schnabel said inflation risks tilted to the upside and policy may already be mildly accommodative and does not see need for further rate cut. Similar caution from new Austrian central bank chief Kochler, who advocated caution on policy in the coming weeks (Bloomberg), while Slovenia's Dolenc said easing cycle is probably over in press interview (Bloomberg). The ECB is widely expected to leave policy on hold next week, but outlook into year-end is mixed. Some sell-side economists have started to revise their ECB outlook
In earnings news, DACHs names kicked off the session with dormakaba Holding (DOKA.SW) and Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW) reporting FY/H1 earnings this morning, with the latter bringing forward guidance to 2025 for performance fees to account for 25-40% of total revenues. In Denmark, Coloplast (COLO.B.DC) issued a presentation in connection with Capital Markets Day 2025, indicating an organic revenue CAGR of 7-8% until FY 2029/30, growth in absolute EBIT in line with or above revenue growth. In other corporate developments, Nestle (NESN.SW) CEO Freixe was dismissed with immediate effect over an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate in the firm. In M&A news, Monte Paschi increased (BMPS.IM) cash element in the offer for Mediobanca (MB.IM) by €0.90/share
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Persnl & HHold Goods (0.26%), Food & Beverage (0.48%), Autos & Parts (0.63%), Health Care (0.71%), Oil & Gas (0.85%), Chemicals (0.88%), Telecom (0.93%), Media (1.21%),
Underperformers: Real Estate (3.60%), Travel & Leisure (2.89%), Technology (2.79%), Retail (2.63%), Financial Svcs (2.41%), Ind Goods & Svcs (2.24%), Construct & Mtls (1.97%), Basic Resources (1.66%), Utilities (1.57%), Insurance (1.52%), Banks (1.50%)
Macro:
Is France's government doomed ? (F24)
Bayrou's last stand: Waking France up to the boomer pension timebomb (Politico)
UK borrowing costs hit highest since 1998, pound slides on fiscal worries (Reuters)
A European deterrence force is a prerequisite for peace in Ukraine (FT)
Italy considers hiding state flight paths after jamming of von der Leyen plane (Guardian )
Novo Backed by Key Danish Investor as Drugmaker Seeks Revival (BBG)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+9.4% JSG.LN (Johnson Service Group £1.51, +0.13) -- H1 earnings; to commence £25M buyback
+6.8% NXQ.LN (Nexteq £0.79, +0.05) -- calls GM for share buyback
+6.3% CRI.FP (Compagnie Chargeurs Invest €11.50, +0.68) -- invest studying potential sale of Novacel following several indicative expressions of interest
+4.0% DEZ.GR (Deutz AG €9.26, +0.36) -- acquires SOBEK Group at ~11x FY25 EBITDA multiple
+2.3% GIMB.BB (Gimv €45.20, +1.00) -- tranding update
+2.2% ECOR.LN (Ecora Resources £0.75, +0.02) -- to sell Dugbe Gold Project royalty to Elemental Altus Royalties for up to $20M
Notable Decliners
-29.3% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €15.90, -6.60) -- lowers FY guidance
-11.4% BEGR.SS (BE Group SEK26.00, -3.35) -- start of rights issue
-7.7% EDR.SM (eDreams ODIGEO €7.90, -0.66) -- Q1 earnings
-7.1% DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding CHF692.00, -53.00) -- FY earnings
-6.8% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.73, -0.05) -- launches PancreaSure Test in US
-5.8% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF24.12, -1.48)
-5.7% MBH.LN (Michelmersh Brick Holdings £0.92, -0.06) -- H1 earnings; confirms new CFO
-5.6% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £1.05, -0.06)
-4.3% EMG.LN (Man Group £1.57, -0.07)
-4.3% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £2.28, -0.10) -- re-initiated hold at Shore Capital Stockbrokers
-3.4% BPSO.IM (Banca Popolare di Sondrio €12.15, -0.43) -- STOXX changes
-3.1% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €40.11, -1.29)
-3.1% BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena €7.63, -0.24) -- increases cash element in the offer for Mediobanca by €0.90/share
-2.8% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,065.50, -31.00) -- H1 earnings
-2.7% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €1.20, -0.03) -- appoints new CFO
-2.5% BTRW.LN (Barratt Redrow £3.51, -0.09)
-2.5% WHA.NA (Wereldhave €18.22, -0.46) -- CFO steps down
-2.5% RNO.FP (Renault €33.19, -0.85)
-2.3% IPH.FP (Innate Pharma €1.84, -0.04)
-2.3% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast DKK609.60, -14.20) -- CMD
-2.0% EVPL.LN (Everplay £3.98, -0.08) -- H1 earnings
-1.3% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £13.33, -0.17) -- seeking deal to accelerate servicing of its engines - Reuters; Aug traffic numbers
-0.4% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.88, -0.00)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: D'Ieteren Group (DIE.BB)
DACHs: Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), Helvetia Holding (HELN.SW)
Southern Europe: Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA)
UK: M&G (MNG.LN), Bakkavor Group (BAKK.LN), Hilton Food Group (HFG.LN), EnQuest (ENQ.LN), Ecora Resources (ECOR.LN), Churchill China (CHH.LN), Cairn Homes (C5H.ID)
Trading Update:
France: Figeac Aero (FGA.FP)
Germany: flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR)
Nordics: NNIT (NNIT.DC)
Sales: Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS)
CMD/events: thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR) Danske Bank CFO Fireside Chat
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Aug Preliminary CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and prior +2.0%
Italy Jul PPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior revised to +2.4% from +2.5% (6:00ET)
Spain Aug Unemployment Change +21.9K vs prior (1.4K)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 25): +$1.25 or +1.95% to $65.26
€-$ (0.0056) or (0.48%) to 1.1655
£-$ (0.0165) or (1.22%) to 1.3380
€-£ +0.0065 to 0.8712
S&P 500 (1.41%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +11.55%
DAX: +17.97%
CAC: +3.71%
MIB: +22.06%
Stoxx 600: +7.00%
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