Sep 03 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Wednesday. Some steep losses in Greater China, Japan and Australia, which underperformed notably as its IT stocks weighed. Singapore also lower, India flat. South Korea and Taiwan ended a few points higher alongside most of Southeast Asia. US futures mixed with Nasdaq higher but DJIA lower, Europe opened higher. US dollar edging higher, AUD outperforming after GDP beat, NZD under pressure. Treasury yields higher across tenors and accelerating at the long end, JGB yield curve also steepening. Crude futures down, precious metals near unchanged, iron ore higher.
Investor focus remained on the bond market where yield curve steepening continued during Asia trade Wednesday. JGB 30Y yield reached a fresh record high, its 20Y a 26-year high and its 10Y a 17-year high as traders continued to fret over increased issuance to avert fiscal pressure, a threat that may worsen as political pressure on PM Ishiba grows and the opposition calls for stimulus. Japan equities were weak all day and, while the yen was stable, it continued to hover at elevated levels.
Australia Q2 GDP growth was slightly better than expected as consumption improved. South Korea Q2 GDP was revised slightly higher. China August private sector services PMI showed activity unexpectedly strengthened to its highest since May-24. India's commerce and industry minister said he was hopeful of a US trade agreement by November as regional geopolitical tensions had passed just as President Trump said he was not considering lowering India's 50% tariff rate. Presidents Xi, Putin and Kim attended China's Victory Day parade in Beijing with Xi vowing to defy 'intimidation' against China. Thailand's ruling party moved to dissolve the country's lower house just minutes after an opposition party backed a conservative rival candidate.
Japan regulators have cleared Yageo's (2327.TT) bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957.JP) following a lengthy security review. Hong Kong regulators are investigating allegations of insider trading at Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388.HK) as well as the SFC. TSMC (2330.TT) lost its authorization to ship essential chip equipment to its Nanjing plant, mirroring action taken against Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS). LG Energy Solutions (373220.KS) won an order to supply 32 and 75 gigawatt-hour EV batteries to Mercedes-Benz by mid 2030s.
Digest:
JGB 30y yields hit fresh highs, global ultralong selloff adds to domestic political uncertainty:
JGB 30y yield reached a new record 3.285% Wednesday. Follows an overnight selloff in developed market ultralong government bonds with fiscal debt concerns the common underlying theme. Highlight was 30y gilt yield hitting its highest since 1998. Pressures were triggered by a wave of issuance in Europe amounting to EUR49.6B which Bloomberg calculated was a record for a single day. Seasonality was noted as a key characteristic as activity typically picks up in September after the summer holidays. Seasonal factor analysis of global government bonds with maturities over 10 years showed median declines of 2% in September, the worst monthly performance of the year. Prospects for Fed rate cuts encouraging curve steepening in US Treasuries. However, surge in supply being met with strong demand amid precipitous inflows into bond funds throughout the summer. Euro corporate bond spreads remain near historic lows. In contrast, JGB market beset by soft supply-demand conditions amid an absence of secular buyers as BOJ normalizes its balance sheet. JGB issuance set to remain elevated as FY26 general budget requests look set for another record high. Political uncertainty and opposition calls for more stimulus seen skewing public spending/debt risks to the high side.
Private survey shows China services expansion at fastest pace since May-2024:
China RatingDog services PMI, previously known as Caixin PMI, was 53.0 in August, beating consensus 52.5 and July's 52.6. Data marked 32nd consecutive month of service sector expansion and was strongest since May-2024. Improvement in headline figure mainly attributed to stronger rise in new business with rate of new order growth fastest since May-24. Export business increased at steepest rate since February while panelists pointed to successful business development efforts, improving market conditions and growing tourism. Outstanding business accumulated for fifth straight month with rate of growth quickening from prior month. However staffing levels fell with headcounts have fallen in two of last three months, partly due to cost concerns. Input prices continued to increase for sixth success month amid higher wages and raw material costs while service providers absorbed those cost increases, lowering output charges. Business confidence unchanged from July and was joint-highest in five months. RatingDog Composite PMI was at 51.9, up from July's 50.8, strongest since Nov-24, amid broad-based growth that was led by services.
Consumption drives larger-than-expected rebound in Australian GDP growth:
Australian Q2 GDP growth rose to 0.6% q/q from 0.3% pace in Q1, slightly better than consensus 0.5%. Brought yearly rate of growth to 1.8% from 1.3% in Q1, better than consensus 1.6% and higher than RBA's estimate. Household consumption the main driver, contributing 0.4% to growth. Discretionary spending the highlight, making its biggest contribution to GDP growth since Q3-2022. Corresponded with fall in household savings ratio as growth in spending outpaced rise in disposable incomes. Other expenditure components were more subdued with private investment, public demand and net trade having negligible impact and underlining uneven nature of growth over Q2. Data nonetheless drew hawkish reaction with front-end Australian yields extending an earlier up move. However, markets had already dismissed probability of September rate cut with November still seen as most likely month for a reduction, depending on outcome of upcoming monthly jobs data and Q3 CPI release in late October.
Leaders join China President Xi for military parade as Trump responds:
China President Xi joined by leaders of more than 20 countries on Wednesday as he oversaw military parade in Tiananmen Square showcasing advanced Chinese weaponry (NY Times, FT, Reuters, Bloomberg). Parade grabbed attention of President Trump, who accused Beijing, Russia and North Korea of conspiring against US. Trump's post came after he had earlier dismissed concerns about an axis forming against US, highlighting his positive relationship with Xi. Press coverage of military parade and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit earlier this week has focused largely on optics of Xi appearing with leaders of Global South countries like India, as well as Russia, North Korea and Iran, sending implicit message of resistance against US. While Trump again took issue with unbalanced trading relationship with India (said he's not considering lowering 50% tariffs), talks are still ongoing according to India's commerce minister (Bloomberg). Trump's claim India offered to reduce tariffs to "nothing" also interpreted as sign communication lines remain open. US envoy to NATO said Trump avoiding secondary tariffs on China over Russian crude purchases to allow negotiations to continue (Bloomberg).
Thailand's ruling party moves to dissolve parliament after rival backs opposition candidate for PM role:
Thailand's ruling Pheu Thai party has sought royal decree to dissolve lower house of parliament to paveway for snap general election (TheNation, BangkokPost). Move came just minutes after People's Party, which has most seats in parliament, gave conditional support to conservative leader of Bhumjaithai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul, for PM role following Paetongtarn Shinawatra's dismissal by constitutional court last week. PP had demanded Anutin dissolve lower house within four months of taking office, hold referendum on new constitution by general election date as condition of support (TheNation). PP said it would not join cabinet, would bring motion of no confidence if minority government did not implement demands. However, Pheu Thai said was seeking immediate dissolution after seeing PP conditions, refusal to join cabinet would lead to political impasse. PP maintains wide margin over rivals in polls which sees leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut as most favored politician to be premier (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+8.4% 034230.KS (Paradise Co.): reports August casino revenue KRW80.45B vs year-ago KRW72.02B
+3.8% 576.HK (Zhejiang Expressway): to absorb Oceanking Development via share swap, targeting dual A+H listing
+1.3% 4507.JP (Shionogi & Co.): FDA accepts NDA for Ensitrelvir for prevention of COVID-19 following exposure
+1.0% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): reports Q2 adjusted EPADS(CNY1.85) vs FactSet (CNY2.22)
+0.4% 6957.JP (Shibaura Electronics): Yageo receives Japanese FDI approval for Shibaura Electronics acquisition, extends tender offer to 18-Sep
Notable Decliners:
-13.8% 1686.HK (SUNeVision Holdings): reports FY net income attributable HK$979.4M vs FactSet HK$1.01B
Data:
Economic:
China August
RatingDog Services PMI 53.0 vs consensus 52.5 and 52.6 in prior month
RatingDog Composite PMI 51.9 vs 50.8 in prior month
Japan August
Final services PMI 53.1 vs flash 52.7 and 53.6 in prior month
Composite PMI 52.0 vs flash 51.9 and 51.6 in prior month
Australia Q2
GDP +0.6% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and revised +0.3% in Q1
GDP +1.8% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and +1.3% in Q1
South Korea Q2
Revised GDP +0.7% q/q vs preliminary +0.6% and (0.2%) in prior quarter
GDP +0.6% y/y vs preliminary +0.5% and 0.0% in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: (371.60) or (0.88%) to 41938.89
Hang Seng: (153.12) or (0.60%) to 25343.43
Shanghai Composite: (44.58) or (1.16%) to 3813.56
Shenzhen Composite: (34.16) or (1.41%) to 2380.30
ASX200: (161.80) or (1.82%) to 8738.80
KOSPI: 12.07 or +0.38% to 3184.42
SENSEX: 57.61 or +0.07% to 80215.49
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.28 or +0.19% to 148.6450
$-KRW: (6.36) or (0.46%) to 1389.4300
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.31% to 0.6526
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 88.0831
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1298
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