Sep 08 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher after last week's downbeat performance when STOXX Europe 600 ended down ~(0.2%).
Spotlight remains on France ahead of today's confidence vote for PM Bayrou's government. France will face slew of sovereign debt rating reviews after the confidence vote, which is widely expected to result in collapse of Bayrou government. Assuming Bayrou loses today's vote and the government falls, Macron will be faced with some difficult choices; call new elections to try to re-establish a majority, appoint yet another new prime minister in the hope they can succeed where the previous four have failed, or even stand down himself, something he has repeatedly ruled out despite growing calls for him to go. (Sky News )
Oil prices higher this morning, with WTI Crude (Oct 25) +1.24% to $62.64, after last week's losses. Reuters cites prospect of more sanctions on Russian crude after an overnight strike on Ukraine offset OPEC+'s planned output increase. On weekend OPEC+ agreed to raise October output by 137Kbpd as initial step in restoring 1.65Mbpd supply tranche. However, group estimates October's actual increase may be low as 60Kbpd given some members already producing at capacity or face pressure to forego actual increases to compensate others for prior oversupply. Statement gave only generic guidance that future increases will depend on market conditions and may involve reversing or pausing previous hikes if necessary
European macro data releases out today include Germany Jul industrial production, trade balance, Eurozone Sep Sentix economic index, Denmark Jul industrial production, trade balance. In central banks, ECB's Villeroy chair the Paris EUROPLACE Conference in Zurich at 1830 CET.
Norway will vote today on the final day of the parliamentary election, with the ruling Labour Party narrowly favoured to remain in office, although there has been a surge in support for the populist rightwing Progress party led by Sylvi Listhaug. If Labour does win they could face drawn out negotiations with smaller leftwing parties. (Guardian , Reuters, Times )
The week ahead sees ECB interest rate decision, EIA short-term energy outlook, OPEC / IEA oil market reports, Germany Jul industrial production, UK Jul industrial/manufacturing production as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Baloise (BALN.SW), Inditex (ITX.SM) and Vistry Group (VTY.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
UK
France
Norway
Public spending dominates Norway election (FT )
Top company news
Earnings/updates
MOVE.SW (Medacta Group) -- reports H1 net income €60.0M vs FactSet €41.4M [1 est]; confirms FY guidance
AEVS.SW (AEVIS VICTORIA) -- reports preliminary H1 net revenue CHF546.0M vs year-ago CHF463.1M
Also reporting today
Earnings:
France: Abivax (ABVX.FP), Seche Environnement (SCHP.FP)
Southern Europe: NewPrinces (NWL.IM), Pharmanutra (PHN.IM), SECO (IOT.IM), Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), Valsoia (VLS.IM)
UK: Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), Concurrent Technologies (CNC.LN)
Traffic: Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR)
CMD/events: Idorsia (IDIA.SW) aprocitentan (TRYVIO/JERAYGO) investor Q&A webcast, Intralot (INLOT.GA) CMD
M&A
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- ASML putting €1.3B into Mistral AI's €1.7B fundraise - Reuters
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- exploring acquisition of telecom assets in Germany, UK, Spain and Brazil - Reuters, citing CEO Murtra
LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group) -- nearing deal to acquire Curve for £120M - Sky News
ENT.LN (Entain) -- issues sale documents for Venues business - Australian Financial Review
ABVX.FP (Abivax) -- trading higher; circulation of comments from Betaville cited
VPK.NA (Royal Vopak) -- Vopak Terquimsa divested terminal in Barcelona to Tradebe Port Services; will report exceptional gain in Q3
Investment firm Permira exploring sale of contract drugmaker Cambrex at a valuation of ~$4B - FT
Healthcare
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- presents new analyses from Phase 3 MARIPOSA study at IASLC 2025 WCLC
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- NEJM publishes results from Johnson & Johnson's Phase 3 MARIPOSA study
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- presents results from Phase III FLAURA2 trial of Tagrisso at WCLC
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceutical) -- announces phase 3 data for PALYNZIQ (pegvaliase-pqpz) in adolescents with phenylketonuria
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- has entered into a $150M sales agreement - 424B5
2IVB.GR (Indivior) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Two Seas Capital LP)
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Bpifrance Participations SA)
Other
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- announces Co-founder and CEO International Thomas Griesel to depart upon expiration of term on 30-Apr-26
SREN.SW (Swiss Re) -- to pursue 2050 net zero GHG targets without SBTi validation (3-Sep)
TRMD.A.DC (TORM Plc) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Oaktree Capital Group Holdings GP, LLC)
CTY1S.FH (Citycon) -- CEO Zaslavsky steps down, will be replaced by Eshel Pesti as CEO effective immediately
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- UBS does not consider shrinking the bank to be a strategy - Reuters
EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- CFO Holger Hohrein to leave at the end of the year
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- SEC closes investigation of Swedbank
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $122.7M, (16.9%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
FDA to fast track reviews of nicotine pouches of Philip Morris International, Altria, Reynolds American, Turning Point Brands - Reuters
Guinea pressuring Rio Tinto to invest in downstream processing or steelmaking - Australian Financial Review
Key rating changes
Upgrades
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
GYC.GR (Grand City Properties) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
VNA.GR (Vonovia) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
STB.NO (Storebrand) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
YAR.NO (Yara International) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Downgrades
JDEP.NA (JDE Peet's) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
Other Actions
JET2.LN (Jet2) -- resumed buy at Peel Hunt; prior rating was buy
Jefferies initiates BALD.B.SS, KOJAMO.FH, TRIAN.B.SS
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- initiated outperform at Santander
Data
Nikkei +1.41% to 43625.21
Hang Seng +0.44% to 25529.20
Shanghai Composite +0.18% to 3819.39
S&P futures +4.3 vs prior close of 6489.8
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.1718
$-¥ (0.06) or (0.04%) to 148.10
€-¥ (0.08) or (0.05%) to 173.55
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