Sep 09 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower, whilst Asian equities mixed Tuesday. Japan stocks off highs as post-Ishiba resignation momentum fades. Greater China markets mixed with property developers leading in Hong Kong while mainland indexes turning lower. Big tech firms contributing to gains on South Korea and Taiwan benchmarks.
In politics, French PM Bayrou's government came to an end after a confidence motion for his deficit-cutting measures was defeated by 364 to 194 votes in the national assembly (Le Monde, FT, Bloomberg). Both Le Pen's National Rally and leftist France Unbowed have called for new elections. There are thoughts that Macron could opt for a caretaker government to pass a budget by decree to buy time to find another prime minister. Sources said Macron's preference is to avoid another election.
Elsewhere, Norwegian Labour party secured 4 additional years in government after seeing off a surge of support for the populist right in a polarised election. Incumbent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere's Labour and four smaller, left-leaning parties won 87 seats, above the 85 needed for a majority, with 99% of ballots counted. (Reuters, the Guardian).
On today's agenda, in Germany in the morning, Chancellor Merz will attend the opening of the International Motor Show "IAA MOBILITY 2025" in Munich and deliver a speech. In the UK, there are MPs questions on Treasury, whilst committee topics include work of the FCA at 9:30BST and reforming the water sector at 10:00. Also EIA short-term energy outlook, 80th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) opens, DI CFO conf. UK in a Change Europe hosts event Can Keir Starmer's EU and US balancing act succeed in an increasingly turbulent world?
In central banks, ECB's Montagner speech at 8:30CET at AEFR conf, Bundesbank's Nagel speaks at 13:30CET at BIS Innovation Summit (through Thu), SNB's Schlegel panellist at 13:50, Riksbank's Bunge panellist at 15:20, Bank of France's Villeroy fireside chat at 17:15, moderator BOE's Breeden. Bundesbank's Theurer speech at 17:30CET at bank's office in Saarbrucken.
In trade developments, Yonhap sources said South Korean delegation currently in US for talks to work out details of trade deal struck in July. Two sides trying to resolve differences over details of Seoul's proposed investments and addressing non-tariff measures. Trade headlines have leaned hawkish over recent days with US-EU trade deal said to be under threat, China unwilling to offer meaningful concessions to US, US raid of Hyundai plant and associated risk to investment plans and India's wariness despite Trump softening his tone).
European macro data releases out today include France Jul industrial production, Netherlands Aug final CPI, Norway Aug PPI, UK Aug retail sales monitor - BRC.
In corporate news, Novartis (NOVN.SW) to acquire Tourmaline Bio, Inc (TRML); offer price of $48 per share valuing Tourmaline Bio at ~$1.4B on fully diluted basis. Anglo American (AAL.LN) is reportedly nearing deal to acquire Teck Resources in mostly stock transaction valuing the company at ~$20B. In earnings/updates, Interparfums (ITP.FP) reported H1 earnings this morning and slightly lowered FY25 revenue guidance, whilst Euronext (ENX.FP) released August trading activity. In Sweden, HMS Networks (HMS.SS) issued a presentation ahead of the company's CMD today guiding to net sales target for 2030 set to SEK 7.5B, with an EBITA-margin target of 25% for the period. In Germany, Handelsblatt reported that Lufthansa' s (LHA.GR) Eurowings CEO expects to post profit in the hundreds of millions this year.
Politics/Macro/World News
Norway's centre-left parties retain power after parliamentary elections - FT
Badenoch tells Starmer: Let's work together to cut welfare bill - The Telegraph
Gold Climbs to Another Record After Fed Rate-Cut Optimism Soars - Bloomberg
French parliament ousts prime minister, deepening political crisis - Reuters
UK suffers worst hiring slump in Europe as tax raid drags on jobs market -- The Telegraph
Rachel Reeves to tell ministers to prioritise fight against UK inflation -- FT
UK consumer confidence slumps among over-65s but surges in young -- FT
UK Stores Get Sunshine Boost But Fears Are Mounting, BRC Says -- Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
ABVX.FP (Abivax) -- reports H1 net income (€100.8M) vs FactSet (€101.1M) [3 est, (€102.9)-(98.3M)]
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- Aug trading activity
ITP.FP (Interparfums) -- reports H1 net income €73.0M, +4% vs year-ago €70.1M
LHA.GR (Lufthansa) -- Lufthansa' s Eurowings CEO expects to post profit in the hundreds of millions this year - Handelsblatt
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- Guidance and Business update: Net Sales target for 2030 has been set to SEK 7.5B, with an EBITA-margin target of 25% for the period
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
DACHs: M1 Kliniken (M12.GR)
France: Rubis (RUI.FP), Fleury Michon (ALFLE.FP), Haulotte Group (PIG.FP)
Southern Europe: Metlen Energy & Metals (MYTIL.GA), Puig Brands (PUIG.SM), Moltiply Group (MOL.IM), GR Sarantis (SAR.GA), LU-VE (LUVE.IM), Fourlis Holdings (FOYRK.GA), B&C Speakers (BEC.IM)
UK: Computacenter (CCC.LN), Gamma Communications (GAMA.LN), Midwich Group (MIDW.LN), Luceco (LUCE.LN), James Fisher & Sons (FSJ.LN), accesso Technology Group (ACSO.LN), Somero Enterprises (SOM.LN), The Pebble Group (PEBB.LN), Likewise Group (LIKE.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Groupe Partouche (PARP.FP), LightOn (ALTAI.FP)
CMD/events: DOF Group (DOFG.NO), Envipco Holding (ENVI.NA), Pantheon Resources (PANR.LN)
M&A
TECK.B.CN (Teck Resources) -- Anglo American closing in on deal to acquire Teck Resources - Bloomberg, citing sources
TECK.B.CN (Teck Resources) -- Anglo American nearing deal to acquire Teck Resources in mostly stock transaction valuing the company at ~$20B - FT
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- to acquire Tourmaline Bio, Inc (TRML); offer price of $48 per share valuing Tourmaline Bio at ~$1.4B on fully diluted basis
DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co.) -- acquires Canvas Energy for total consideration of ~$550M, to close during 4Q25
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- Azelis announces acquisition of Distona AG; price not disclosed
Healthcare
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- JAMA publishes article on Bayer's Phase 3 trial of Elinzanetant for treating VMS
CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to octreotide (Oczyesa) for ADPKD
ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience) -- renegotiates outstanding loan from Fenja Capital; receives subscription intentions from board members and management
OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- provides update on ongoing proceedings ahead of shareholders' annual general meeting of 30-Sep-25
Other
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- ASML and Mistral AI enter strategic partnership; ASML to invest €1.3B Series C funding round
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- Transcript Intelligence: Barclays at Barclays Global Financial Services Conference
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- Saint-Gobain strengthens its construction chemicals organization in Germany
DB1.GR (Deutsche Börse) -- subsidiary ISS Stoxx could announce plans in coming days to raise as much as €1B in IPO - FT
RHM.GR (Rheinmetall) -- announces Bundeswehr approval of new training system for Infantry Fighting Vehicle Puma (0920 ET)
BNR.GR (Brenntag) -- announces departure of Essentials division head Ewout van Jarwaarde; CEO Jens Birgersson to assume direct leadership of division
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- SIX orders delisting of Meyer Burger Technology shares
KNDS to decide in coming months whether to launch IPO next year - Reuters
Key rating changes
Upgrades
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
SOF.BB (Sofina) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SGRO.LN (Segro) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
CAST.SS (Castellum AB) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
Downgrades
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
AT1.GR (Aroundtown) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
Data
Nikkei (0.22%) to 43546.82
Hang Seng +0.64% to 25797.45
Shanghai Composite (0.73%) to 3799.06
S&P futures +4.3 vs prior close of 6506.0
€-$ +0.0013 or +0.11% to 1.1776
$-¥ (0.59) or (0.40%) to 146.93
€-¥ (0.47) or (0.27%) to 173.07
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