Sep 11 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended broadly higher Thursday, near best levels of the session. No surprise in ECB policy decision. Key deposit rate left at 2% for second meeting in row after President Lagarde has signaled policy in a good place and comfortable with wait-and-approach. Macroeconomics forecasts offered little read-through for policy outlook. Highlighted assessment of inflation outlook broadly unchanged. Revised up inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 by 0.1% to 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively, but cut 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%. Core inflation outlook unchanged for next two years at 2.4% and 1.9%, respectively, but touch softer in 2027 at 1.8% versus prior 1.9%. Revised up 2025 GDP at 1.2% versus prior 0.9%, cut 2026 at 1% versus 1.1% and 2027 growth outlook unchanged at 1.3%. Maintained longstanding guidance for data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Most officials have sounded comfortable with current policy settings, though recent source reports suggested door remains open to further easing if economy weakens. French political risk a potential headwind for euro area, though right now market action contained and Lagarde has said it is monitoring bond market developments.
In latest trade/tariff news, EU considered unlikely to heed US calls to impose punitive tariffs on India and China over Russian crude purchases and is instead mulling targeted action by including China independent refiners in upcoming Russian sanctions package. More signs of thaw in US-India relations with Trump and Modi to speak in coming weeks while Bloomberg sources said Indian officials may visit Washington in coming days. Mexico planning to impose tariffs of up to 50% on certain imports from China and other Asian countries.
French PM Lecornu started consultations with party leaders after his appointment on Tuesday. Pledged a change of approach with opposition and said it will be more technical and serious. Quiet macro data calendar in Europe. UK RICS house price survey showed sharp fall in housing activity, which was blamed on speculation on property tax change ahead of the budget. Previews of Friday's UK GDP data expect services sector to support monthly growth figure. Chancellor Reeves reiterated pledge to deregulate to support growth. UK PM Starmer sacked US ambassador Mandelson due to Epstein links published in press this week. German exports continue declining, with BGA trade association forecasting 2.5% drop this year amid pressure from global demand weakness, rising costs, and protectionism (Reuters).
In sector performance, Construction & Materials the strongest performers with big gains for Buzzi SpA (BZU.IM) upgraded to overweight by JPMorgan, citing US exposure, German stimulus and sector undervaluation. Travel & Leisure outperforming, rebounding from previous session weakness on French flight cancellations/disruption. In stocks news, Trainline (TRN.LN) stronger on upbeat guidance and £150M buyback. In Gambling, Playtech (PTEC.LN) surging after H1 results ahead of expectations, strong B2B momentum. Autos & Parts pared earlier losses to close as second best performer; focus on upbeat comments from Stellantis (STLAM.IM) CEO at a broker conference.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Construct & Mtls +1.38%, Autos & Parts +1.26%, Retail +1.11%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.03%, Financial Svcs +0.75%, Banks +0.73%, Chemicals +0.64%
Underperformers:
Energy(0.56%), Technology (0.14%), Media (0.10%), Real Estate +0.01%, Utilities +0.03%, Insurance +0.17%, Basic Resources +0.17%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.31%, Travel & Leisure +0.36%, Consumer Products and Services +0.42%, Health Care +0.48%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.49%
Macro:
ECB
ECB leaves policy steady for second consecutive meeting -- link
UK
Germany
Experts commission starts working on Germany's debt brake reform -- Reuters
Switzerland
Swiss add lustre to Trump trade deal with gold refining plan, sources say -- Reuters
Turkey
Turkey Defies Rate Bets With Larger-Than-Expected Cut to 40.5% -- Bloomberg
Spain
Spain's parliament kills shorter work week bill in blow to government -- Reuters
Sweden
Riksbank Governor Thedéen: Banks need to have more active liquidity management -- link
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+17.4% CAU.LN (Centaur Media £0.41, +0.06) -- signs SPA with Lighthouse Bidco to sell Thelawyer.com Limited for enterprise value of £43M
+15.1% CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies NOK7.94, +1.04)
+12.6% SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine CHF1.48, +0.17) -- H1 earnings
+12.5% FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks £8.72, +0.97) -- H1 earnings
+12.2% TRN.LN (Trainline £2.92, +0.32) -- trading update; £150M buyback
+9.4% PUUILO.FH (Puuilo €14.72, +1.27) -- Q2 earnings
+9.2% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €8.15, +0.69) -- CEO comments at Kepler Cheuvreux Autumn Conference
+9.0% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.55, +0.05) -- H1 earnings
+7.9% 1COV.GR (Covestro €58.48, +4.32) -- ADNOC reportedly near final remedies for EU Commission's foreign subsidies investigation in connection with Covestro acquisition -- Reuters
+7.8% XSPRAY.SS (Xspray Pharma SEK48.85, +3.55) -- results of oversubscribed rights issue; to receive total issue proceeds of approx SEK161M
+6.8% BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA €48.88, +3.10) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+6.4% THG.LN (THG Plc £0.31, +0.02) -- H1 earnings
+6.3% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK4.04, +0.24) -- publication of peer-reviewed article in Cancer Immunology Research
+5.6% HCO.FP (HighCo €3.78, +0.20) -- H1 earnings; Oddo upgrade; Gilbert Dupont downgrade
+5.4% BGO.LN (Bango £0.98, +0.05)
+4.8% ALAFY.FP (Afyren $2.60, +0.12) -- H1 earnings
+4.3% TXGN.SW (TX Group CHF201.50, +8.30) -- SMG Swiss Marketplace Group starts book-building for planned IPO; expected price range between CHF 43.00 and CHF 46.00
+4.2% DLG.IM (De'Longhi €30.54, +1.22) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+4.2% SCLP.LN (Scancell Holdings £0.09, -0.00) -- FY earnings
+3.9% PTEC.LN (Playtech £4.12, +0.16) -- H1 earnings
+3.9% ISS.DC (ISS A/S DKK203.20, +7.70) -- contract; Jefferies upgrade
+3.5% DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding CHF744.00, +25.00) -- initiated overweight at Barclays
+3.2% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.64, +0.02) -- preliminary payment determination for Immunovia's PancreaSure test
+2.9% TE.FP (Technip Energies €41.60, +1.18) -- acquires Ecovyst's Advanced Materials & Catalysts business for $556M
+2.8% CPG.LN (Compass Group £26.10, +0.70) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+2.5% HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials €208.00, +5.10) -- ACCC will not oppose Cement Australia's acquisition of BGC Cementitious following amended proposal
+2.4% KER.FP (Kering €239.15, +5.65) -- amendment to the Valentino shareholders' agreemen
+1.5% CAMX.SS (Camurus SEK733.50, +10.50) -- initiated buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
+0.5% IMM.LN (ImmuPharma £0.11, -0.00)
+0.4% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.17, -0.00) -- unveils Phase 3 Sarcopenia Trial Strategy with BIO101 in Europe and Asia
+0.3% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF22.52, +0.06) -- Jefferies upgrade
Notable Decliners
-13.5% RUSTA.SS (Rusta SEK64.00, -10.00) -- Q1 earnings
-12.1% SCHP.FP (Seche Environnement €81.00, -11.10) -- H1 earnings; Gilpert Dupont downgrade
-6.1% DEX.IM (Dexelance €6.20, -0.40)
-4.1% RSGN.SW (R&S Group Holding CHF32.90, -1.40) -- H1 earnings
-3.5% XANO.B.SS (XANO Industri SEK57.90, -2.10) -- acquisition
-3.3% ENOG.LN (Energean £8.65, -0.30) -- H1 earnings
-2.8% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK2.71, -0.08)
-2.8% LORD.LN (Lords Group Trading £0.35, -0.01) -- H1 earnings; transferred buy at Stifel
-2.7% SFR.LN (Severfield £0.32, -0.01) -- CFO to step down
-2.2% HAS.LN (Hays Plc £0.58, -0.01) -- Jefferies downgrade
-2.0% HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group SEK21.07, -0.42) -- performance improvement program and new financial targets to reflect accelerated shift to growth segments
-0.3% ALMRB.FP (Mr Bricolage €7.66, -0.02) -- looking to simplify shareholder organization structure
-0.3% PUM.GR (Puma €19.00, -0.06) -- Pinault family's Artemis reportedly not planning to sell 29% stake in Puma at current market value -- Reuters
-0.1% AVIO.IM (Avio €35.40, -0.05) -- Avio may consider capital increase of up to €300M - Bloomberg
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP)
Southern Europe: Cembre (CMB.IM), Italian Wine Brands (IWB.IM)
Data:
Economics:
IEA says world oil supply to rise by 2.7M bpd in 2025 after latest OPEC+ hike versus prior 2.5M bpd forecast
Ireland Aug CPI +2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.7%, +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 25): ($1.19) or (1.87%) to $62.48
€-$ +0.0039 or +0.34% to 1.1733
£-$ +0.0036 or +0.26% to 1.3566
€-£ +0.0008 to 0.8652
S&P 500 +0.77%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +13.76%
DAX: +19.06%
CAC: +6.00%
MIB: +24.01%
Stoxx 600: +9.40%
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