Sep 12 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended higher almost everywhere Friday to take the MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan index to a fresh record high. The Hang Seng led the advances as Alibaba and Baidu surged although mainland boards were more subdued. South Korea led by SK Hynix although gains broad based, Taiwan's Taiex at a record high also led by tech. Australia and Japan's main boards posted solid gains, some weakness in Southeast Asia although Indonesia bounced back from losses. India with fifth consecutive day of gains. US futures flat, Europe paring early gains. US dollar a little higher, no movement of note in Asia currencies. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also higher, CGB yields lower on renewed tariff threats. Crude oil contracts sharply down on US growth worries, gold and silver rallying to fresh records, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies higher.
Asia tech-leaning boards surged again Friday to bookend a strong week as soft US employment data overnight firmed Fed rate cut bets, and marginally increased the chances of a 50 bps cut. SK Hynix led in South Korea on an AI chip advancement although the Kospi's rally was broad based following President Lee's decision to walk back changes to the country's capital gains taxes. Alibaba and Baidu led in Hong Kong on reports they have begun to use domestically developed AI chips.
In other developments, US-China trade talks are set to resume in Madrid next week, and US commerce secretary Lutnick appeared optimistic over a Taiwan trade deal but less so on ones for India and South Korea. Fresh reports the US was pressing other countries to increase tariffs on China and India over Russian oil purchases weighed on crude prices, feeding through to several China-based energy names. Ahead next week, central bank decisions in the US, UK and Canada, as well as in Taiwan and Japan. China activity data Monday likely to show increased economic weakness in August.
Alibaba (9988.HK) and Baidu (9888.HK) said they have begun training AI models with internally designed chips, according to The Information. China Evergrande (3333.HK) liquidators have received non-binding indicative offers for its majority stake in Evergrande Property Services Group (6666.HK). SK Hynix (000660.SK) said it had completed development of next-generation HBM4 high-bandwidth memory needed for AI. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) said a battery plant it was co-developing with LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) faces completion delays following the detention of its workers by US immigration officials last week. Yageo (2327.TT) is to acquire up to 21.3M shares in Anpec Electronics (6138.TT) via a public tender offer; Minebea Mitsumi (6479.JP) said it will call off its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957.JP) after falling short of tendered shares.
Digest:
Bullish AI developments drive Asian semis to record highs:
Tech strength a feature of record-setting moves on Japan, Korean and Taiwan benchmarks this week while Hang Seng reached highest in four years. Alibaba (9988.HK) playing central role in the tech rally, reaching highest since Nov-2021 after The Information highlighted use of domestic AI chip in training its AI models. Other notable developments included Alibaba's $3.2B convertible bond raising for AI infrastructure that drew strong investor interest (Bloomberg). Group also set aside another CNY1B for user subsidies to drive e-commerce customer growth, underlining first mover advantage in China's highly competitive instant retail space (Reuters). Elsewhere, TSMC's (2330.TT) better-than-expected August revenue growth reinforced strong AI chip demand (Bloomberg). SK Hynix (000660.KS) completed development of sixth gen HMB4 AI memory chip (Bloomberg). Positive sentiment towards Asian semis aided by developments in US, where AI deals drove 359% y/y increase Oracle's (ORCL) remaining performance obligations. Oracle's $300B deal with OpenAI to supply 4.5GW of data center capacity (link) also led Stargate partner SoftBank (9984.JP) to another record high.
Bessent to discuss trade with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng next week in Madrid:
Reuters cited Treasury Department statement noting Treasury Secretary Bessent to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other senior officials next week in Madrid for talks on trade, TikTok and money laundering. Two sides recently agreed to extend tariff pause to 10-Nov to allow for continued negotiations on reaching trade agreement and setting up potential Trump-Xi summit. However, two sides appear no closer on resolving key sticking points after senior China trade negotiator Li Chenggang Li's recent visit to Washington produced no tangible outcome. Media sources recently highlighted how China keeping communications line open but showing little inclination to yield to US trade demands. China maintaining demands for US to ease tech export controls. Wants US to remove 20% fentanyl tariffs before acting further against production of precursor chemicals. Trump's call for China to ramp up soybean purchases being resisted by Beijing. Beijing also concerned about US trade agreements with other countries that include provisions to limit Chinese trade. Meanwhile, NY Times sources noted Trump administration weighing severe restrictions on imported medicines from China.
Other trade headlines mixed:
Speaking to CNBC on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Lutnick sounded optimistic about reaching trade deal with Taiwan after the island was hit with 20% tariffs (Bloomberg). He added that South Korea yet to formalize trade deal struck in July and that Seoul either sign or pay the tariffs (Yonhap). South Korea's industry minister was due in Washington this week as two sides look to resolve differences over details of investment pledge, and non-tariff trade barriers. Lutnick was more cautious on prospects of an agreement with India, repeating demand for Delhi to stop purchasing Russian oil and increase market access to American firms. Lutnick's remarks follow signs of thaw in tensions with President Trump and PM Modi to speak in coming weeks as two countries resume trade talks. Meanwhile, FT sources noted US will urge G7 nations to impose punitive tariffs on India and China over their purchases of Russian crude. Similar report this week noted Trump called on EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and Russia. However, EU officials signaling they are unlikely to heed those calls given they are negotiating trade deal with India and concerned about economic impact from any retaliation by Beijing.
China activity data likely to be mixed with slowdown in industrial production and investment expected:
Ahead of Monday's release, Bloomberg consensus expects Chinese economy likely extended month of weakness in August. Industrial production growth expected to moderate to 5.6% y/y in August from 5.7% in prior month. Retail sales growth forecast to pick up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7% in July, weakest YTD. Fixed asset investment likely had slowest expansion in nearly half a decade. Urban unemployment rate expected to be flat at 5.2%. Noted extent of activity slowdown will probably draw attention from authorities, who have been reluctant so far to unveil additional stimulus after H1 GDP grew 5.3% y/y. Recall exports were bright spots, contributing to almost a third of growth in H1 while latest data showed growth in outbound shipments slowed to weakest in six months with 33% plunge in exports to US in August (Bloomberg). Private consumption has been weaker and housing market doldrums have continued, weighing on overall demand. Recent "anti-involution" campaign to curb relentless competition also likely cut into output. August data has been mixed so far with official manufacturing PMI in contraction for fifth straight month while private reading returned to expansion.
Alibaba and Baidu have begun training AI models with internally designed chips:
Sources told the Information Alibaba (9988.HK) and Baidu (9888.HK) have begun using in-house chips to train their AI models (Reuters). Baidu only recently began training new versions of its Ernie AI model with its chips Alibaba has been using its own chip for smaller AI models since earlier this year. Sources claimed Alibaba's chip at least as effective as Nvidia's (NVDA) H20s. Previous media report had also revealed how Alibaba developed new domestically produced chip that can serve broader range of AI inferencing tasks. On face value, latest developments underline China's progress in developing domestic AI chips after Beijing called on companies to avoid using Nvidia H20s. At a forum on Thursday, top adviser to Beijing repeated calls for China to wean itself off Nvidia by designing chips specifically for large model development (Bloomberg). However, other reports have highlighted how big Chinese tech firms still dependent on Nvidia's more superior technology (Reuters). The Information further noted Alibaba and Baidu still reliant on Nvidia chips for their more advanced AI models.
Notable Gainers:
+13.6% 9627.JP (Ain Holdings): reports Q1 earnings; revenue ¥132.97B vs FactSet ¥122.93B
+9.9% 6138.TT (Anpec Electronics): Yageo to acquire up-to-21.3M shares in Anpec Electronics at NT$229.8/share via public tender offer
+8.1% 9888.HK (Baidu): reportedly have begun using in-house chips to train AI models
+7.0% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): completes development and finished preparation of HBM4
+5.4% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): reportedly have begun using in-house chips to train AI models
Notable Decliners:
-1.0% 6030.HK (CITIC Securities): Major Chinese technology companies, state-owned banks reportedly to face restrictions in cryptocurrency, stablecoin businesses
-0.8% 2229.JP (CALBEE): acquires 58% stake in Hodo In; terms undisclosed
-0.4% 6957.JP (Shibaura Electronics): Minebea Mitsumi calls off tender offer for Shibaura Electronics as number of tendered shares falls short, as expected
Data:
Economic:
Japan July
Industrial Production m/m (revised) (1.2%) versus (1.6%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 395.62 or +0.89% to 44768.12
Hang Seng: 301.84 or +1.16% to 26388.16
Shanghai Composite: (4.71) or (0.12%) to 3870.60
Shenzhen Composite: (6.17) or (0.25%) to 2462.49
ASX200: 59.90 or +0.68% to 8864.90
KOSPI: 51.34 or +1.54% to 3395.54
SENSEX: 398.41 or +0.49% to 81947.14
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.39 or +0.27% to 147.6150
$-KRW: (1.19) or (0.09%) to 1388.4700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.06%) to 0.6656
$-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 88.2958
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 7.1207
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE