Sep 12 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended the week mostly mixed to lower. Follows firmer close on Thursday. In sectors, basic resources, utilities and insurance biggest gainers, while health care, autos, food/beverage and retail main laggards.
Markets digest Thursday's ECB policy update. President Lagarde appeared to signal an end of its easing cycle, highlighted that growth risks were now more balanced, and disinflation process was now over despite forecast showing below-target inflation in 2026 and 2027.
On the macro-front, UK July monthly activity data showed growth stalled at the start of Q3 after strength in June. July GDP growth estimate at 0% versus consensus 0% and prior 0.4% expansion. Further, other UK July macro data included Industrial Production up +0.1% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior +0.2%, Construction Output rising +2.4% vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.5% and Visible Trade Balance deficit expanding to (£22.24B) vs consensus (£21.60B) and prior (£22.16B). Elsewhere, Final CPIs from Germany, France and Spain in line with flash estimates.
In political news, France's Le Pen said she would work with new PM Lecornu if he broke from Macronism. UK PM Starmer's judgement being scrutinized after forcing to sack US ambassador Mandelson over links to Epstein, 24 hours after he backed him. In trade developments, Politico reported that UK and US officials have restarted talks on steel tariffs ahead of next week's Trump state visit
On the M&A newsflow, Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM) has unanimously rejected BBVA's hostile tender offer, whilst Baloise (BALN.SW) and Helvetia (HELN.SW) secured both Swiss and European Commission merger approvals; Pluxee (PLX.FP) acquired 100% of ProEves, an Indian corporate childcare benefit player. In other corporate news, Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM) and Argo Blockchain PLC (ARB.LN) CFOs stepped down, Euronext (ENX.FP) will to be included in CAC 40 and Vallourec (VK.FP) won a major contract by Petrobras for supply of OCTG. In the UK, shares Ocado Group (OCDO.LN) shares ended ~(17%) lower, with analysts citing negative takeaways from Kroger's earnings call including suggested risk of CFC closures for Ocado.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Italy Jul trade balance, Switzerland Aug PPI, Eurozone Jul trade balance, and UK Sep house price index - Rightmove.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +0.68%, Utilities +0.63%, Insurance +0.61%, Technology +0.35%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.33%, Media +0.30%, Real Estate +0.09%, Telecom +0.05%, Banks +0.03%
Underperformers:
Health Care (1.11%), Autos & Parts (0.75%), Food & Beverage (0.71%), Retail (0.70%), Oil & Gas (0.50%), Chemicals (0.31%), Construct & Mtls (0.30%), Travel & Leisure (0.27%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.21%), Financial Svcs (0.16%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
EU to bring forward review of 2035 vehicle emissions targets -- Reuters
UK:
Economy grinds to a halt ahead of Budget -- Telegraph
Germany:
France:
Is a French sovereign-debt crisis looming? -- pubaffairsbruxelles.eu
Le Pen's party considers 'amnesty bill' to clear her run for French presidency -- Telegraph
Italy:
Meloni jubilant as south's employment rate hits new high -- Ansa
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.8% JTC.LN (JTC £13.10, +1.86) -- confirms that it has received a preliminary and conditional non-binding proposal from Warburg Pincus
+12.7% AVIO.IM (Avio €38.90, +4.50) -- H1 earnings; proposes share capital increase, in one or more tranches, of maximum total amount of €400M
+11.2% VETO.FP (Vetoquinol €81.60, +8.20) -- H1 earnings
+5.9% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.17, +0.01) -- sector move
+3.6% HNR1.GR (Hannover Re €249.20, +8.60) -- UBS upgrade
+3.3% VK.FP (Vallourec €15.76, +0.50) -- contract
+3.3% CMBT.BB (CMB.TECH €8.25, +0.26) -- resumed buy at KBC
+2.6% INWI.SS (Inwido SEK184.80, +4.60) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+2.3% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.56, +0.03) -- Berenberg upgrade
+1.6% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.06, +0.05) -- sector move
Notable Decliners
-19.9% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £2.50, -0.60) -- analysts cite negative takeaways from Kroger's earnings call including suggested risk of CFC closures
-3.1% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo €4.54, -0.14) -- CFO to step down
-3.1% CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals £1.45, -0.05) -- Berenberg downgrade
-2.9% NOVN.SW (Novartis CHF99.71, -2.93) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-2.8% SMWH.LN (WH Smith £6.70, -0.19) -- Berenberg downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Southern Europe: Ibersol SGPS (IBS.PL)
UK/Ireland: HgCapital Trust (HGT.LN), Craneware (CRW.LN), M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), Bango (BGO.LN), Greencoat Renewables (GRP.ID)
Data:
Economics:
Aug Final CPI
Spain +2.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.7%
France +0.9% m/m vs preliminary +0.9%
Germany +2.2% y/y vs preliminary +2.2%
UK Jul
Visible Trade Balance (£22.24B) vs consensus (£21.60B) and prior (£22.16B)
Construction Output +2.4% vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.5%
Industrial Production +0.1% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior +0.2%
Manufacturing Production +0.2% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Oct): +$1.04 or +1.67% to $63.41
€-$ (0.0014) or (0.12%) to 1.1719
£-$ (0.0020) or (0.15%) to 1.3553
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8647
S&P 500 (0.02%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +13.58%
DAX: +19.03%
CAC: +6.02%
MIB: +24.51%
Stoxx 600: +9.30%
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