Sep 12 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher following firmer close on Thursday. Asian equity markets broadly higher. Hang Seng and Kospi notable outperformers amid gains in tech stocks. US equity futures flat. Follows record close for S&P and Nasdaq on Thursday.
European markets digest Thursday's ECB policy update. President Lagarde appeared to signal an end of its easing cycle, highlighted that growth risks were now more balanced, and disinflation process was now over despite forecast showing below-target inflation in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, US data on Thursday led to more rate stabilization and steeper Fed rate cut path, now ~70 bp of cuts through year-end. Labor market concerns reinforced by higher weekly jobless claims. August CPI somewhat hotter on headline reading, but core in line.
Nothing market-moving from latest batch of trade headlines. Treasury Secretary Bessent to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other senior officials next week in Madrid for talks on trade. Commerce Secretary Lutnick sounded optimistic about prospects of trade deal with Switzerland and Taiwan, but more cautious on India and South Korea. More reports highlighting US pressure on other nations to impose punitive tariffs on China and India over Russian crude purchase (and low prospects of those nations heeding US demands.
In political news, France's Le Pen said she would work with new PM Lecornu if he broke from Macronism. UK PM Starmer's judgement being scrutinized after forcing to sack US ambassador Mandelson over links to Epstein, 24 hours after he backed him.
In central banks updates today, Latvia central bank's Kazāka interview for LTV's "Morning Panorama". Austria central bank publishes its latest economic forecast; press conf by governor Kocher at 10:00CET. Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 10:15CET at Univ. of Applied Sciences of the Bundesbank. Russia central bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% at 11:30BST, press conf 13:00. Reportedly (including Chatham House), Russia, Belarus to hold main phase of Zapad 2025 strategic drills (through Tue).
European macro data releases out today include UK Jul industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance, construction output, Aug monthly GDP - NIESR, Germany Aug final CPI, France Aug final CPI, Spain Aug final CPI.
On a light reporting front, Kesko (KESKOB.FH) reported sales for August from continuing operations this morning. In France, Robertet (RBT.FP) and Vetoquinol (VETO.FP) reported Q2/H1 earnings yesterday after the close, while in Denmark, ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC) released its FY earnings report.
In other corporate developments, Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM) CFO Pierre La Tour resigned to pursue new professional opportunities in another area of business, effective 26-Sep-25. In M&A, Baloise (BALN.SW) and Helvetia (HELN.SW) have secured merger approvals from the Swiss and European Commissions, with the transaction expected to close on December 5. In Spain, Sabadell (SAB.SM) unanimously rejected BBVA's (BBVA.SM) hostile tender offer, saying it fundamentally undervalues the company and destroys value for its shareholders.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU and India zeroing in on a trade deal despite Trump's tariff demands - FT
Nvidia and OpenAI to back major UK investment in artificial intelligence - FT
ECB Can Deliver 2% Inflation Without More Cuts, Patsalides Says - Bloomberg
UK and US restart steel talks ahead of Trump's state visit - Politico
Russia, Belarus start 'Zapad 2025' joint military exercise - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Aug sales from continuing operations €1.11B, +0.2% in comparable terms
RBT.FP (Robertet) -- reports Q2 net income €58.5M, +13% vs year-ago €51.7M
CHEMM.DC (ChemoMetec) -- reports FY EBITDA DKK258.0M vs FactSet DKK255.0M [4 est, DKK238-262M]
VETO.FP (Vetoquinol) -- reports H1 net income €25.1M vs year-ago €23.8M
Also due to report today:
Earnings:
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP)
Southern Europe: Cembre (CMB.IM), Italian Wine Brands (IWB.IM)
M&A
BALN.SW (Baloise) -- and Helvetia secure Swiss and European Commission merger approvals; expects closing of transaction will take place on 5-Dec
PLX.FP (Pluxee) -- to acquire 100% of ProEves, an Indian corporate childcare benefit player; price not disclosed
1208.HK (MMG Ltd) -- MMG confident of winning EU approval for deal to acquire Anglo American's nickel business - FT, citing executive
AKH.NO (Aker Horizons) -- announces merger with AKH HoldCo AS is completed
LINK.NO (LINK Mobility Group Holding) -- Karbon Invest AS, Jens Rugseth and other parties affiliated sell total of 17.0M shares in LINK Mobility Group Holding ASA
ITC Ltd, PepsiCo, TPG and Temasek interested in 10% stake in Balaji Wafers - Economic Times
SAB.SM (Sabadell) -- unanimously rejects BBVA's hostile tender offer -- presentation; conf call at 9:30 CEST
Healthcare
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- announces positive topline results from Asia cohort of Phase 3 MARIPOSA study
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- FDA publishes unitled letter setn to AstraZeneca concerning DTC promotion of Flumist
OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- and the FoRT Foundation complete enrollment in Combi-TED Phase 2 study evaluating Tedopi in combination with Nivolumab or Docetaxel in Patients with Non-Small Cell Cancer
Other
Index changes; Euronext to be included in CAC 40; Teleperformance to be excluded; change effective after markets close on Friday 19-Sep-25
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- CFO Pierre La Tour resigns to pursue new professional opportunities in another area of business, effective 26-Sep-25
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- Transcript Intelligence: Stellantis at Kepler Cheuvreux Autumn Conference
RHM.GR (Rheinmetall) -- calls for Europe to increase investment in low-cost air-defence systems; is prepared to supply Poland with air-defence systems if asked - FT, citing CEO
VK.FP (Vallourec) -- awarded major contract by Petrobras for supply of OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) products and services
Key rating changes
Upgrades
HNR1.GR (Hannover Re) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
SSPG.LN (SSP Group) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
Downgrades
ARGX.BB (argenx) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
PUUILO.FH (Puuilo) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
SMWH.LN (WH Smith) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
Initiations
PUM.GR (Puma) -- outperform at Bernstein
SIGN.SW (SIG Combibloc Group) -- outperform at Oddo
INWI.SS (Inwido) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +1.06% to 44844.25
Hang Seng +1.35% to 26438.74
Shanghai Composite +0.19% to 3882.80
S&P futures +0.8 vs prior close of 6592.5
€-$ +0.0002 or +0.01% to 1.1735
$-¥ +0.17 or +0.12% to 147.39
€-¥ +0.21 or +0.12% to 172.96
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