Sep 16 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower. Follows mostly firmer levels on Monday. Insurance, Financial Services and Banks the worst performing sectors. Basic Resources, Energy and Auto/Parts outperform. US equities lower in Tuesday morning trading, near worst levels. Follows stocks finishing higher on Monday, with both S&P and Nasdaq hitting fresh ATHs (and Nasdaq 100 up for 10th straight session).
US and China concluded talks in Madrid, agreeing to framework deal on TikTok ownership. Trump said meeting went well and he will be speaking to President Xi on Friday. Talks occurred against backdrop of tensions after China accused NVDA of violating anti-monopoly laws and launched probe into US analog chips. Press sources have also highlighted divisions over trade and fentanyl. Trump's positive assessment seen keeping alive expectations of a meeting with Xi, which may happen at next month's APEC summit in South Korea.
European macro calendar picks up today. UK labor market data showed increase in jobless claims and softer wage growth. Eurozone industrial production recovered somewhat in July. ZEW survey saw improvement in economic sentiment for Germany and euro area. Limited impact from data with markets waiting for key central bank decisions. Wednesday's Fed meeting the main event. Futures pricing in a 25bp cut with a 50bp reduction only seen as an outside possibility (despite Trump this weekend predicting a "big cut").
In other developments, pressure remains on UK PM Starmer after third senior ally departs in two weeks after publication of old message where he made lewd jokes about another Labour MP. French press highlights latest Bank of France growth forecasts will make fiscal consolidation effort more challenging.
Elsewhere, US officials in India for resumption of trade talks following thaw in tensions. On Fed front, US appeals court blocked President Trump from firing Fed Governor Cook. In mostly party-line vote Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to Fed board, allowing him to participate in this week's FOMC meeting.
In corporate news, out of France, Guerbet (GBT.FP) revised downward its financial targets for 2025 and now expects restated EBITDA margin in the range of 12-13% vs prior guidance of above 15%, saying business activity in France continues to be impacted by supply reforms. BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) announced strong growth momentum initiated in 2025 have enabled the group to confirm its net income target and its growth trajectory, marking the conclusion of the 2022-2026 strategic plan. VusionGroup (VU.FP) reported H1 earnings, whilst Aeroport de Paris (ADP.FP) released Total Paris Aeroport August traffic. Rubis (RUI.FP) commented on recent media reports regarding potential transactions on its share capital; siad group was committed to exploring and considering the potential options that could arise in the context of discussions that, to date, remain very preliminary. Kering (KER.FP) confirmed security breach as client data from Gucci, Balenciaga, McQueen brands was stolen by hackers.
Elsewhere, Tietoevry (TIETO.FH) updated its 2025 guidance and now sees adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7-13.3% vs prior guidance 12%-13%. Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) issued results from INFORM survey of people taking semaglutide for weight management (Wegovy). In the UK, Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN) shares are higher post H1 numbers and new £30M ($40M) share buyback. Kier Group (KIE.LN) also trading higher post FY25 numbers and group added FY26 was trading slightly ahead of the board's expectations. Unilever PLC (ULVR.LN) announces the appointment of Srinivas Phatak as its new CFO, effective immediately.
In M&A headlines, ADES and BidCo raise cash consideration Shelf Drilling (SHLF.NO) to NOK18.50/sh. Kemira (KEMIRA.FH) to acquire Water Engineering, Inc. with purchase price ~$150M in cash.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 15-Sep to 19-Sep attached) Bolloré (BOL.FP), Sidetrade (ALBFR.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), Innate Pharma (IPH.FP), Catering International Services (ALCIS.FP), OVS (OVS.IM), Gas Plus (GSP.IM), Barratt Redrow (BTRW.LN), IP Group (IPO.LN), Advanced Medical Solutions Group (AMS.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN), McBride (MCB.LN), Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret (MAVI.E.TI), and EXOR (EXO.NA) will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Sweden Aug unemployment rate, UK Aug CPI, RPI, Eurozone Aug final CPI, Austria Aug final CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +0.31%, Energy(0.07%), Autos & Parts (0.40%), Health Care (0.49%), Consumer Products and Services (0.56%), Technology (0.71%), Retail (0.78%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.88%), Travel & Leisure (1.00%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (1.10%), Chemicals (1.10%),
Underperformers:
Insurance (2.24%), Financial Svcs (1.99%), Banks (1.93%), Construct & Mtls (1.54%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.40%), Real Estate (1.33%), Utilities (1.30%), Telecom (1.23%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
EU
UK
Burnham ally surges ahead in race for Labour deputy leadership - The Telegraph
Maria Caulfield, former Tory health minister, defects to Reform - The Guardian
Investment deals pave way for Trump arrival in Britain - Reuters
State pension likely to rise by 4.7% in April - BBC
Germany
851 billion in new loans - Klingbeil expects decline - Handelsblatt
German investor morale unexpectedly rises in September, ZEW finds - Reuters
Merz announces agreement on active pension - Handelsblatt
Spain
Spanish government raises 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.6% - Reuters
Italy
Italian Bank Stocks Dip on Plan to Raise €3 Billion From Lenders - Bloomberg
Switzerland
IMF Cuts Switzerland's Growth Forecast on US Tariffs - Bloomberg
Denmark
Denmark pledges $253 million for Greenland's infrastructure, healthcare - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+31.8% SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling NOK13.84, +4.40) -- ADES and BidCo raise cash consideration for company to NOK18.50 for share
+15.5% TUNE.LN (Focusrite £1.78, +0.26) -- FY trading update
+12.8% VU.FP (VusionGroup €245.60, +27.20) -- H1 earnings; Gilbert Dupont upgrade
+8.4% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK29.50, +2.30) -- initiated buy at DNB Carnegie
+8.0% EYE.LN (Eagle Eye Solutions Group £2.70, +0.21) -- confirms prelim. FY results
+7.0% KIE.LN (Kier Group £2.05, +0.14) -- FY earnings
+6.5% GLE.LN (MJ Gleeson £3.50, +0.22) -- FY earnings
+6.3% NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals CHF8.94, +0.56) -- H1 earnings
+5.2% BRCK.LN (Brickability Group £0.55, +0.03) -- AGM statement
+5.1% EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group SEK93.16, +4.55)
+3.8% SPR.LN (Springfield Properties £0.96, +0.03) -- FY earnings
+3.1% KER.FP (Kering €262.35, +7.95) -- confirms security breach; CIC Market Solutions upgrade
+3.0% AOF.GR (ATOSS Software €104.60, +3.00) -- initiated buy at Metzler Capital Markets
+1.9% FNTL.LN (Fintel £2.30, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+1.7% EKF.LN (EKF Diagnostics Holdings £0.31, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
Trading Lower:
-25.6% STEM.LN (Sthree £1.45, -0.48) -- Q3 trading update
-22.1% GBT.FP (Guerbet €15.06, -4.28) -- downgrades FY25 outlook; CIC Market Solutions downgrade
-13.7% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.10, -0.01)
-6.7% HEAD.LN (Headlam Group £0.65, -0.04) -- H1 earnings
-5.0% GRNG.SS (Gränges SEK123.20, -6.50) -- Nordea downgrade
-3.9% TEL2.B.SS (Tele2 SEK159.05, -6.40) -- reinstated underperform at BofA
-3.5% SCHP.SW (Schindler Holding CHF303.20, -10.80) -- Schindler Holding investor sells ~600,000 registered shares in accelerated book building deal -- Reuters, citing bookrunner
-3.2% RAND.NA (Randstad €36.33, -1.16) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-3.1% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £4.61, -0.15) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.9% OR.FP (L'Oreal €381.00, -11.25) -- Jefferies downgrade
-2.8% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group £1.99, -0.06) -- Deutsche Numis downgrade
-2.7% PGH.LN (Personal Group Holdings £3.63, -0.10) -- H1 earnings
-2.4% PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media €6.37, -0.15) -- adjusts FY outlook
-2.4% BRG.NO (Borregaard NOK201.00, -5.00) -- emporary disruption in production of speciality cellulose at facility in the Sarpsborg site; negative impact on Q3 EBITDA between NOK 40-50M
-1.8% ANA.SM (Acciona €164.70, -3.00) -- Citi downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: EXOR (EXO.NA)
France: Bolloré (BOL.FP), Sidetrade (ALBFR.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), Innate Pharma (IPH.FP), Catering International Services (ALCIS.FP)
Southern Europe: OVS (OVS.IM), Gas Plus (GSP.IM)
UK: Barratt Redrow (BTRW.LN), IP Group (IPO.LN), Advanced Medical Solutions Group (AMS.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN), McBride (MCB.LN)
Other: Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret (MAVI.E.TI)
CMD/events: Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) R&D day, PostNL (PNL.NA), Fielmann Group (FIE.GR)
Data:
Economics:
UK Aug Claimant Count Change +17.4K vs consensus +20.3K and prior revised +33.3K from (6.2K)
Italy Aug Final CPI +1.6% y/y vs preliminary +1.6%
Germany Sep ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator 37.3 vs consensus 26.3 and prior 34.7
Eurozone Jul Industrial Production +1.8% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 25): +$1.06 or +1.67% to $64.36
€-$ +0.0076 or +0.65% to 1.1839
£-$ +0.0047 or +0.35% to 1.3645
€-£ +0.0027 to 0.8677
S&P 500 (0.17%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +12.51%
DAX: +17.18%
CAC: +5.93%
MIB: +24.32%
Stoxx 600: +8.50%
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