Sep 23 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed in a quiet session Tuesday. South Korea, Taiwan and Australia all finished higher to add to recent gains. Greater China markets lower as internet & IT dragged with the Hang Seng down for a fourth consecutive day. India trading lower again, Southeast Asia mixed. Japan closed for a holiday. US futures slightly higher, Europe opened with gains. US dollar flat, NZD notably weaker and the rupee weakened to record lows against the dollar on remittance fears post the US visa fee increase. Crude futures flat after being lower earlier. Gold at a fresh record high. Base metals under some pressure as data shows China steel demand fell in Q3. Cryptocurrencies trading slightly higher.
Asia equities again ended mixed Tuesday with the lack of direction exacerbated by a lack of catalysts and closed markets in Japan, which also meant no Treasury or JGB trading. Nevertheless, many equity benchmarks continue to hover near record or multi-year highs although Greater China's markets appear to be in a pullback for now after several technical indicators flashed overbought late last week. Wall Street's technology-driven rally added support to tech-leaning benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan, which both reached fresh record highs today.
In regional developments, India and Australia flash PMIs reflected softer manufacturing growth amid slower new orders as US tariffs set in. Singapore consumer headline inflation dipped to 0.5% y/y with core easing to 0.3%, both lower than expectations, while Malaysia inflation rose to 1.3%. Indonesia and the EU finalized a trade deal that will eradicate almost all tariffs on trade while the country's parliament approved president Prabowo's 2026 budget with a 9% increase in spending targeted.
Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) and Weibo (9898.HK) have both received rectification notices for 'damaging the online ecosystem' due to lax content control over app content. Celltrion (068270.KS) to buy a new Jersey-based biologics facility from Eli Lilly for $330M, aims to remove US tariff risks. TSMC (2330.T) is said to have 15 customers lined up for its next generation 2nm chips that will be mass produced from 2026. Adani Group (Adani Enterprises, 512599.IN) said it aims to cut its leverage over the next five years and has no plans to issue bonds in international capital markets until 2027. Malaysia's largest port operator MMC Port secured regulator approval for its Kuala Lumpur IPO, the country's largest in 13 years.
Digest:
Trump's H-1B visa overhaul risks complicating US-India trade talks:
Concerns White House move to impose $100K fee for H1-B visas could have ramifications for US-India trade negotiations, which have only just resumed following recent thaw in tensions (Bloomberg). Lot of discussion about how visa overhaul will have biggest impact on India's IT sector, tantamount to a non-tariff barrier against services industry that represents some 55% of India's GDP compared to manufacturing's 17%. Visa development being seen as fresh complication to trade talks with two sides already at an impasse on matters such as India's purchases of Russian crude, and its refusal to open dairy and agriculture markets to US. Trump's visa crackdown also seen putting PM Modi under renewed pressure from opposition parties, potentially limiting flexibility to offer concessions. So far, both sides signalling willingness to progress negotiations following talks in US on Monday (Times of India, Bloomberg). India's Commerce Minister Goyal met with USTR Greer to discuss trade while Secretary of State Rubio met with his Indian counterpart for wide ranging talks that also covered trade
Flash PMIs show slowing factory growth in September:
HSBC India and S&PGlobal Australia flash PMIs for September both indicated softer manufacturing growth with a notable dip in new orders that hint at further softness ahead. India's manufacturing PMI was 58.5 from 59.3 with manufacturing output and services also seeing slower growth; pushed composite PMI to 61.9 from 63.2. HSBC India economist noted slower export orders to US over Aug-Sep offset by higher domestic new orders, reflecting economists' forecast that negative impact from tariffs would be offset by GST cut. Meanwhile, Australia's September manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.6 from 52.0, again with manufacturing output, services growth slowing to produce composite PMI 52.1 from 55.5 in August. S&P Global economist noted manufacturing new orders returned to contraction as US tariffs set in, new export orders also declined although partly offset by strength in services exports.
Huawei's three-year AI chip roadmap fuels self-sufficiency narrative:
China's push to promote development and adoption of domestically produced AI chips has been mentioned as a factor driving bull run in Hong Kong-listed tech stocks. Advances by companies like Alibaba (9988.HK) and Baidu (9888.HK) in developing in-house AI chips appeared to have put more traction behind Beijing's self-sufficiency drive as authorities push to triple AI chip capacity in 2026 (FT). Huawei's recent tech conference generating some attention after company unveiled three-year development roadmap encompassing chips with progressively more computing power through 2027 (Bloomberg). Group also eyeing advances in clustering technology it claims will be able to link 15,488 Ascend chips in 2027 (vs 384 Ascend chips) currently, allowing it to navigate constraints from US sanctions that limit its ability to narrow single-chip performance gap with Nvidia. Emerging news of China chip developers achieving commercialization progress (Reuters) also helping to fuel narrative surrounding China's development of domestic AI ecosystem in face of global restrictions.
PBOC Governor Pan says monetary policy primarily guided by domestic factors:
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng said at press conference that China remains committed to moderately accommodative stance, and any changes to monetary policy will be data-dependent and guided mainly by domestic factors (Bloomberg, Reuters). Pan's comments add clarity to how PBOC will handle balance of internal and external factors as it grapples with slowing economy and global trade uncertainty. Fed's restart of easing potentially opens up more room for PBOC to cut rates too as yuan overhang fades. Meanwhile recent stock rally in China seen as a hurdle as monetary easing could fuel market bubble. Pan said China will continue to use mix of policy tools to ensure ample liquidity, lower financing costs, support consumption and keep yuan's exchange rate stable and balanced. The presser also attended by CSRC, NFRA and SAFE heads; however no major stimulus or short-term policy adjustments were announced, unlike a similar event a year ago that triggered sharp market movements (Bloomberg). Investor attention now turns to Politburo meeting later this month.
Japan LDP leadership candidates mostly aligned but Takaichi dovish on JGB issuance:
LDP presidential candidates compared policy platforms in a joint press conference Tuesday. Breaking reports indicated limited differentiation. All five candidates signaled plans for an economic package focused on cost-of-living relief, though specific proposals vary to some degree (Nikkei). Nobody expressed support for a consumption tax cut (Nikkei). Takaichi acknowledged she was supportive of the idea but could not gather consensus. Still, indicated she would take up the proposal internally again. Takaichi's agenda showed she has since pivoted to the income tax breaks/cash handout proposal currently under discussion between the ruling coalition and DPP. Other candidates did not rule out a consumption tax cut, though were either undecided or apprehensive toward the difficulties of implementation. Budget policy so far the only area of differentiation as Takaichi expressed openness to additional JGB issuance if needed (Nikkei). In contrast, Kobayashi called for balance between debt and taxes, Motegi and Hayashi were cautious, while Koizumi aims for a steady decline in debt-to-GDP ratio. All candidates seemed open to expanding the ruling coalition (Nikkei). Takaichi pledged to clarify her position by the time a prime minister is officially voted in by the Diet at a extraordinary session following the LDP election (Nikkei).
Notable Gainers:
+8.9% 068270.KS (Celltrion): Celltrion USA, Inc., to acquire Imclone Systems for KRW460B
+5.1% 128940.KS (Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co.): presentation of six preclinical study results for three new obesity drugs at EASD 2025
+3.5% 2330.TT (TSMC): rumoured of having 15 customers for its 2nm process already, 10 of which are from the HPC field
+0.6% 2324.TT (Compal Electronics): rumoured to receive over NT$100B order from Dell
+0.1% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): AliExpress tries to attract brand names by beating Amazon on price
Notable Decliners:
-2.1% 2454.TT (MediaTek): in talks with TSMC to potentially make certain chips in Arizona
-0.6% 090430.KS (Amorepacific): guides FY26 revenue KRW4.400T
Data:
Economic:
Singapore August
CPI NSA Y/Y +0.5% versus consensus +0.7% and +0.6% in prior month
India September
Flash manufacturing PMI 58.5 vs final 59.3 in prior month (10:30 IST)
Services PMI 61.6 vs 62.9 in prior month
Composite PMI 61.9 vs 63.2 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: (185.02) or (0.70%) to 26159.12
Shanghai Composite: (6.74) or (0.18%) to 3821.83
Shenzhen Composite: (19.42) or (0.78%) to 2467.01
ASX200: 35.00 or +0.40% to 8845.90
KOSPI: 17.54 or +0.51% to 3486.19
SENSEX: (18.17) or (0.02%) to 82141.80
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.02 or +0.01% to 147.7390
$-KRW: +3.52 or +0.25% to 1394.6950
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.11%) to 0.6588
$-INR: +0.45 or +0.51% to 88.7600
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.1133
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