Sep 25 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised for a mixed open Friday. Futures in Japan were mixed (though ADRs were skewed to losses), Australia marginally higher and South Korea lower. Attention then shifts to the China open after Hong Kong futures fell moderately, contrasting with gains in Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index. US contracts steadied after broad-based declines in cash that left S&P and Nasdaq down for three consecutive sessions. Tech leads were somewhat negative as SOX index declined 0.20% and big tech mostly lower, led by a selloff in Tesla (TSLA). Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening. Dollar index up 0.6% after jumping 0.7% in prior session. Gold finished up 0.1%. Bitcoin futures were down 3.5% though off worst levels. WTI crude was little changed at settlement.
Rich equity valuations posing resistance to further upside. Concurrently, Fed 'goldilocks' dynamic under some threat amid signs of softening labor market and a more cautious assessment from the Fed. Yet, latest FOMC meeting was not as dovish as some had hoped, while mixed results in broader set of US data have prompted markets to dial back some rate cut expectations on better-than-expected headlines (most recently Q2 GDP upward revision and decline in initial jobless claims). H2 growth momentum shaping up to be the litmus test. Spectrum of Fedspeak under the spotlight as Miran expressed inclination for proactive easing to curb tail risks, Bowman leaned dovish, Schmid saw current rates as appropriate, while Goolsbee reiterated concerns about front-loading rate cuts.
AI/tech remains a key bright spot, particularly in major Asian markets. Much of it stemming from China's push for self-sufficiency in response to US restrictions to chip access, leading to a wave of investments. Investors seeing reason to buy Japan tech as component makers may benefit from China's aversion to US-made products while SoftBank (9984.JP) logging record highs recently on the back of Stargate investment news and Advantest (6857.JP) performance closely linked to Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI. Fiscal stimulus hopes also providing underpinning support for both China and Japan in response to tariff impacts, though expectations have been longstanding and there have not been any meaningful developments on this front lately.
In latest news, President Trump signed an executive order to proceed with shifting TikTok's US operations to American owners. Said he had spoken with Xi Jinping and he approved. Press continued to note the lack of official confirmation from Beijing to underscore uncertainties ahead. Attention turns to an agreed bilateral meeting at next month's APEC summit in South Korea. Macro calendar light in Asia today, with softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI the only notable release, though global attention falls to upcoming US PCE. Next week looking more eventful, featuring China official PMIs, BOJ Tankan which could be pivotal for a BOJ rate hike in October, US ISM and payrolls.
Pre-open Company News:
2267.JP -- Yakult Honsha reports August domestic sales volume of Yakult series (11.4%) y/y
300765.CH -- NMPA approves trial of CSPC Innovation's lecanemab for mild cognitive impairment and mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease
601127.CH -- SERES Group obtains CSRC registration for up to 331.5M-share Hong Kong IPO
002803.CH -- Xiamen Jihong guides Q3 net income attributable CNY90.6-104.1M vs year-ago CNY62.3M
8848.JP -- Leopalace21's largest holder Chidori plans to sell 34.0M shares on 30-Sep through block trade
HPHA.GR -- Heidelberg Pharma implements extensive cost-saving measures; focus all development activities exclusively on lead ADC candidate HDP-101
2517.HK -- Guoquan Food has completed up-to-HK$100M buyback announced in January, to repurchase up to HK$100M of shares
S08.SP -- Singapore Post appoints Mark Chong as Group CEO, effective 1-Nov
Hong Kong stock connect daily turnover
17.HK -- New World Development signs up-to-HK$5.9B loan arranged by Deutsche Bank
83.HK -- Sino Land releases sustainability report
603712.CH -- TianJin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co. initiated outperform at SWS Research (timing uncertain)
601636.CH -- Zhuzhou Kibing Group launches CNY100.0-200.0M buyback programme at up-to-CNY9/share
2689.HK -- Nine Dragons Paper Holdings downgraded to hold at Huatai Securities (timing uncertain)
On Deck:
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
New World Development (17.HK)
Japan:
Economic:
08:30 JST: CPI Tokyo Y/Y; consensus
09:30 JST: Export NSA Y/Y (Final); consensus (0.1%)
Earnings:
DCM Holdings (3050.JP)
Australia:
Earnings:
Core Lithium (CXO.AU)
Market Data:
Gold (Dec 25): +$2.20 or +0.06% to $3773.30
WTI Crude (Nov 25): +$0.29 or +0.45% to $65.27
$-¥: +0.97 or +0.65% to 149.8670
$-KRW: +3.96 or +0.28% to 1408.9300
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.72%) to 0.6535
$-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 88.7734
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1338
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