Sep 26 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equities finished higher, recovering from three-week lows and near session highs. Stoxx 600 little changed on the week, but slightly higher MTD and QTD. Construction & Materials supported by EU tariffs on Chinese steel; Banks and Travel/Leisure also outperforming; Technology and Basic Resources lag while Healthcare in focus following Trump tariff announcement. Follows negative performance on Thursday. US equities mostly higher in Friday midday trading. Treasuries slightly firmer; yields down 1-2bp. Bund down 3bps to 2.74% while Gilts down 2bps. Dollar index off 0.3%. Gold up 0.9%. Bitcoin futures down 0.2%. WTI crude up 2%.
Amidst light data calendar, Italy Sep business and consumer confidence in line and Spain Q2 final GDP ahead of preliminary reading. Main focus in Europe was on latest tariff developments. Still unclear if new levies would apply on top of national tariffs or whether economies with trade deals such as European Union would be exempted. EU plans 25-50% tariffs on Chinese steel to protect industry. In the UK, PM Starmer's government losing appeal in latest poll. Labour's poll numbers down from 34% at Jul's election to just 21%, while Reform UK has surged to 31%. Internal rebellion growing. 142 Labour MPs defied leadership over welfare cuts, while 101 demand £3B in child benefit extensions.
Among the handful of company earnings/updates, Alten (ATE.FP) reports H1 net income of €82.6M, down 30% from €118.2M year-on-year. Pennon Group (PNN.LN) H1 trading statement flagged return to profitability but ODIs overall slightly negative. Shares in Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) have extended their recent slide despite the company issuing a rebuttal of the allegations contained in yesterday's Morpheus Research piece. Different story for IDEX (IDEX.NO) shares, tyrading higher after the Reserve Bank of India approved biometric payment authentication technology including IDEX's fingerprint solutions
On M&A front, Prosus' (PRX.NA) Olx Group agrees to acquire La Centrale, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.IM) holds 86.3% of Mediobanca (MB.IM) at conclusion of reopened acceptance period for its offer and Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW) completes the divestment of its Energy segment, becoming a pure-play aerospace company. Media reports that UniCredit (UCG.IM) is considering increasing the number of German nationals on its board to facilitate a potential takeover of Commerzbank (CBK.GR). NOBA Bank Group (NOBA.SS) shares opened at SEK84.90 on Nasdaq Stockholm, the IPO having been priced at SEK70/sh.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Insurance +2.06%, Banks +1.61%, Oil & Gas +1.30%, Travel & Leisure +1.18%, Construct & Mtls +1.07%, Retail +0.89%, Financial Svcs +0.83%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.78%,
Underperformers:
Technology (0.09%), Food & Beverage (0.04%), Health Care +0.09%, Chemicals +0.31%, Telecom +0.38%, Autos & Parts +0.45%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.47%, Basic Resources +0.50%, Media +0.69%, Real Estate +0.69%, Utilities +0.71%
Macro:
Economy:
Eurozone food prices soar 34% since 2019, ECB reports (FT)
UK:
UK's defense spending hike to 3.5% GDP faces major fiscal hurdles (Bloomberg)
Germany:
Merz faces uphill battle to revive Germany's stagnant economy (Politico)
Geopolitics:
Trump imposes steep tariffs on drugs, trucks, and furniture (AFP, Telegraph, FT )
EU plans 25-50% tariffs on Chinese steel to protect industry (Reuters)
NATO's Rutte urges cheaper drone defense solutions (Bloomberg)
Finland urges US to keep key military equipment in Europe (Politico )
Denmark's drone incidents expose Europe's airspace weaknesses (FT)
Europe explores "drone wall" to counter Russian airspace threats (FT)
Germany halts all arms exports to Israel, exceeding Merz's pledge (Politico)
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+10.0% SEE.LN (Seeing Machines £0.03, -0.00) -- 5-year agreement with leading UK bus Original Equipment Manufacturer
+9.2% MDF.SM (Duro Felguera €0.30, +0.03) -- restructuring plan approval
+7.4% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK3.10, +0.21) -- Reserve Bank of India approves biometric payment authentication technology including IDEX's fingerprint solutions
+6.7% ATEME.FP (ATEME €6.04, +0.38) -- H1 earnings
+6.6% C3RY.GR (Cherry €0.71, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+4.9% ALCGM.FP (Cegedim €10.75, +0.50) -- H1 earnings
+4.3% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £2.18, +0.09) -- restart of Kurdistan crude exports via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline
+1.2% GENL.LN (Genel Energy £0.76, +0.01)
+4.2% PTP.GR (Pentixapharm Holding AG €1.83, +0.07) -- advancement of PentixaTher to fourth dose level in Acute Myeloid Leukemia Trial
+4.0% AYV.FP (Ayvens €9.97, +0.38) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+3.9% IHG.LN (InterContinental Hotels Group £91.16, +3.42) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+3.4% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €11.79, +0.39) -- EU considers levying ~ 25-50% tariffs on imports of steel and related products from China - Reuters, citing report from Handelsblatt
+3.0% DOFG.NO (DOF Group NOK99.80, +2.90) -- contracts
+2.9% ALO.FP (Alstom €22.01, +0.63) -- contract
+2.8% J1X.GR (Himalaya Shipping €7.47, +0.20) -- to convert index-linked time charter for Mount Etna to a fixed rate time charter
+2.1% EL.FP (EssilorLuxottica €271.70, +5.70) -- FDA authorizes marketing of the Essilor Stellest lenses to correct myopia in children
+1.8% SIE.GR (Siemens AG €227.80, +4.00) -- Siemens AG internally exploring several scenarios relating to Healthineers stake -- Handelsblatt
+1.2% PYRUM.NO (Pyrum Innovations NOK346.00, +4.00) -- H1 earnings
+1.2% ENI.IM (Eni €15.34, +0.19) -- AGCM decision on alleged biofuel cartel incomprehensible and unfounded, based on a complete misrepresentation of the facts and the market
Notable Decliners
-11.4% NOM.NO (Nordic Mining NOK14.98, -1.92) -- delay of first cargo of rutile
-8.6% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £1.29, -0.12) -- H1 earnings
-6.4% DIB.IM (Digital Bros €11.18, -0.76) -- FY earnings
-4.1% NORBT.NO (Norbit NOK183.00, -7.80) -- Sparebank 1 Markets downgrade
-2.6% ADE.GR (Bitcoin Group €38.04, -1.02) -- H1 earnings
-2.5% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €32.72, -0.83) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.5% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.10, -0.00) -- £7.05M total gross proceeds from Fundraise
-2.3% 2020.NO (2020 Bulkers NOK143.70, -3.40) -- to sell 3 Newcastlemax vessels to an unaffiliated third party for a total consideration of $209M
-2.2% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK115.10, -2.55) -- reportedly in talks to sell stake in Hornsea 3 wind project in UK to Apollo -- FT
-2.1% BIG.LN (Big Technologies £0.83, -0.02) -- requisition of general meeting to remove chairman Alexander Brennan
-1.6% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €83.72, -1.36) -- Firmly confirms full compliance with EU regulations regarding operations in the Russian market; Oddo downgrade
tariffs:
-2.8% IVA.FP (Inventiva €4.97, -0.15); -2.1% ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics CHF0.07, -0.00); -2.0% SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum SEK271.40, -5.40); -1.9% ORNBV.FH (Orion €63.70, -1.25); -1.7% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics €5.89, -0.10)
-2.1% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €27.64, -0.60) ; -1.7% DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding $35.90, -0.63)
EU companies reporting 29-Sep:
Earnings:
France: GenSight Biologics (SIGHT.FP)
Southern Europe: Piraeus Port Authority (PPA.GA), Tessellis (TSL.IM)
UK: Devolver Digital (DEVO.LN), Ebiquity (EBQ.LN)
CMD/Events: TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) 2025 Strategy & Outlook at 15:00CET, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR), Kesko (KESKOB.FH) strategy and logistics at 13:00CET, Net Insight (NETI.B.SS), TotalEnergies EP Gabon (EC.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Italy Sep Business Confidence 87.3 vs cons 87.5 and prior revised 87.3 from 87.4
Italy Sep Consumer Confidence 96.8 vs cons 96.5 and prior 96.2
Spain Q2 GDP +3.1% y/y vs prelim +2.8%; +0.8% q/q vs prelim +0.7%
Sweden Aug Trade Balance (SEK8.9B) vs cons (SEK3.8B) and prior revised SEK3.6B from SEK4.5B T
Denmark Aug Retail Sales +2.5% y/y vs cons +2.9% and prior revised +2.6% from +2.7%; +0.3% m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior +0.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 25): +$1.36 or +2.09% to $66.34
€-$ +0.0029 or +0.25% to 1.1695
£-$ +0.0063 or +0.47% to 1.3408
€-£ (0.0018) to 0.8724
S&P 500 +0.21%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +13.60%
DAX: +19.24%
CAC: +6.64%
MIB: +24.75%
Stoxx 600: +9.24%
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