Sep 29 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Tuesday trade. Futures signaling muted opens in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. S&P 500 futures flat afterhours. Australian bonds firming after Treasury curve flattened amid downshift in long-end yields. FX markets steady following muted price action overnight. Crude extending pullback on weekend OPEC+ production hike reports. Gold steady near record high. Bitcoin unchanged after rebounding to one-week high.
RBA expected to leave cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. Focus will be on communications amid thoughts inflation language will shift in a less dovish direction following recent CPI data, while Governor Bullock is seen maintaining cautious stance on rates. Multiple economists scrapped prior calls for a November rate cut following second-straight hotter-than-expected monthly inflation print that was seen posing upside risks to RBA's CPI forecasts. Market pricing in ~50% chance of a November rate cut (vs 100% a month ago).
China official PMIs forecast to show manufacturing shrunk at narrower pace this month while RatingDog PMI expected to show slight retreat in factory growth. Official non-manufacturing PMI expected to unchanged pace of growth. Follows weak August activity data that reinforced concerns of a H2 slowdown as tariffs exert economic drag while prior policy support measures have failed to generate much traction. Economists anticipate more policy fine-tuning encompassing modest rate cuts in Q4.
Latest reports highlighted pickup in US-China trade tensions after White House expanded export blacklist to include subsidiaries of named companies, potentially capturing firms like Huawei and SMIC. Action predicably drew rebuke from China. Other articles discussed entanglement of geopolitics and trade with Xi reportedly looking to convince Trump to soften position on Taiwan independence. Meanwhile press sources said Pentagon Department encouraging missile producers to step up production that may be needed in conflict with China.
Pre-open Company News:
000661.CH -- Changchun High-Tech Industry's unit Changchun GeneScience obtains NMPA marketing approval for chorionic follicle-stimulating hormone αN02 injection
600276.CH -- NMPA approves trial of Hengrui Pharmaceuticals's HRS-2129 for diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain and pain in osteoarthritis in adults
300133.CH -- Zhejiang Huace Film & TV major holder Fu Meicheng to sell 67.5M shares at CNY7.42/share
600276.CH -- NMPA approves Hengrui Pharmaceuticals's phase II trial of combining SHR-7787 and SHR-4849, bevacizumab, or adebrelimab for malignant solid tumors
002600.CH -- Lingyi iTech plans to list in Hong Kong
548.HK -- Shenzhen Expressway reports August Shenzhen toll revenue CNY389.8M; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY383.3M
710.HK -- BOE Varitronix CFO Chung Kai Cheong resigns, effective immediately
128940.KS -- Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co. signs a technology transfer agreement for Encequidar with Gilead Sciences and Health Hope pharma
2696.HK -- Shanghai Henlius Biotech obtains US FDA IND approval for phase I clinical trial of Ipilimumab biosimilar HLX13
002294.CH -- NMPA accepts submission of Salubris Pharmaceuticals's application for trial of SAL0140 for primary aldosteronism
2582.HK -- Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment completes 2.0M H-share placement at HK$50.13/share
308.HK -- China Travel International Investment Hong Kong initiated overweight at Soochow Securities (timing uncertain)
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
09:30 CST: CFLP PMI Manufacturing; consensus 49.6
09:30 CST: CFLP Non Manufacturing PMI; consensus 50.3
09:30 CST: CFLP Services PMI; consensus
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
Chery Automobile (9973.HK)
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus +0.6%
08:50 JST: Industrial Production SA M/M (Preliminary); consensus (1.2%)
14:00 JST: Housing Starts NSA Y/Y; consensus (4.8%)
Earnings:
and ST (2685.JP), Zojirushi (7965.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Private Sector Credit M/M; consensus
11:30 AEST: Building Approvals SA M/M; consensus
14:30 AEST: RBA Official Cash Rate; consensus +3.6%
Singapore:
Earnings:
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U.SP)
Market Data:
Gold (Dec 25): +$2.90 or +0.08% to $3858.10
WTI Crude (Nov 25): ($0.31) or (0.49%) to $63.14
$-¥: (0.95) or (0.63%) to 148.5620
$-KRW: (9.59) or (0.68%) to 1400.0900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.56% to 0.6579
$-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 88.7043
$-CNY: (0.02) or (0.21%) to 7.1185
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