Sep 29 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. Broadly pro-cyclical upside with Basic Resources, Technology the biggest gainers. Oil & Gas, Travel & Leisure, Construct & Mtls the main laggards. US equity markets mostly higher in midday trading. Treasuries firmer with a bit of curve flattening; yields down 2-4bp. Dollar index down 0.3%. Gold up 1.2%. Bitcoin futures up 3.6%. WTI crude down 3% amid latest headlines of another possible OPEC+ production hike for November. Industrial metals mostly firmer, especially copper.
Busy weekend of trade headlines though nothing that has moved markets. Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs om pharma imports blunted by subsequent reports tariffs won't apply to countries with trade deals. Reports noted EU and Japan confident in securing a 15% cap on US tariffs for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. Reuters sources also noted White House weighing tariffs on foreign electronics based on number of chips they possess in bid to reduce reliance on imports. South Korean official said country unable to invest $350B with cash given insufficient FX reserves. US reportedly told India tariff relief contingent on reducing Russian crude purchases.
In political developments, French PM Lecornu offered first remarks on policy. In an interview with Le Parisien, he ruled out re-introducing wealth tax or suspending unpopular pension reforms - two key demands of the Socialists. Timing of remarks come ahead of final negotiations and appointment of ministers due in coming days. Election of key positions in French Assembly anticipated Wednesday and Thursday and government appointments and ministers expected next week. Meanwhile in the UK, Labour Party conference is underway; attention on any hint on tax policy ahead of autumn budget.
In the macroeconomic calendar, Spanish inflation rose to +2.9% in September, reaching a 15-month high, according to the preliminary release. Eurozone economic sentiment data came in at 95.5 in September vs consensus of 95.2. Industrial confidence improved on stronger production expectations, though order books weakened. Services sentiment slipped to 3.6, while consumer confidence ticked higher to -14.9. Shoppers upgraded big-purchase intentions, aligning with ECB hopes for consumption-led recovery. However, employment expectations dropped, reflecting weaker hiring plans in services, retail and construction, while inflationary pressures continued easing. BoE mortgage lending data a bit weaker than forecast yet still at healthy levels despite reports tax speculation has hampered housing market activity.
Amidst a busy pharma sector, Genmab (GMAB.DC) confirmed earlier speculation that it was acquiring Merus (MRUS) for $97.00/sh in an all-cash transaction representing a transaction value of ~$8.0B; in the UK, AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) will harmonise its listing structure, now seeking a direct listing of AstraZeneca shares on the NYSE in place of the existing US ADRs; GSK Plc (GSK.LN) appointed Luke Miels as CEO Designate, assuming full responsibilities as CEO from 1-Jan-26.
In M&A news, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) divested 50% of its 1.4 GW solar portfolio in North America to KKR for an enterprise value of $1.25B, Kloeckner & Co. (KCO.GR) will divest seven US distribution sites to Russel Metals for $119M and Advent paid the breakup fees as the planned $1.1B deal to buy contact-lens maker from EQT AB (EQT.SS) fell through near the finish line; related, according to local press, EQT AB is considering a bid for Australian health services provider Aidacare; in another deal, wires reported that DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA) invited Apollo back into the auction of its animal nutrition and health unit.
Elsewhere, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR) now sees 2028-2030 adj EBIT margin of 8% to 10% and also plans to cut total of ~4,000 jobs worldwide by 2030. Stellantis (STLAM.IM) confirmed its 2025 financial guidance remains unchanged in all respects. whilst the FT reports that Italy's financial regulator questioned Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) over last week short seller claims about Russia.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +1.71%, Technology +1.10%, Health Care +0.93%, Real Estate +0.80%, Media +0.73%, Autos & Parts +0.55%, Financial Svcs +0.55%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.55%, Retail +0.55%, Food & Beverage +0.49%, Chemicals +0.25%
Underperformers:
Oil & Gas (1.36%), Banks (0.74%), Construct & Mtls (0.30%), Travel & Leisure (0.25%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.01%), Telecom +0.01%, Utilities +0.07%, Insurance +0.13%
Macro:
Central Banks:
UK:
Labour Party Conference live headlines (The Telegraph )
Almost two in three Labour members back Burnham over Starmer for leader, poll shows (Sky News )
Germany:
CDU wins big in Germany's local elections as AfD fails to secure any cities (Euronews )
France:
Geopolitics:
Germany's Pistorius pours cold water on drone wall concept (Politico )
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+97.6% IPR.PL (Impresa SGPS €0.25, +0.12) -- MFE in talks to acquire stake in Impresa SGPS
+18.4% PREC.SS (Precise Biometrics SEK3.26, +0.51) -- partners with Avigilon to enhance biometric physical access control
+16.7% UCB.BB (UCB €229.80, +32.90) -- MoonLake Immunotherapeutics reported week 16 results of Phase 3 VELA-1 and VELA-2 trials
+15.2% DAN.IM (Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche €44.45, +5.85) -- FY net income €220.1M vs FactSet €224.6M [6 est, €143.9-255.0M]; Mediobanca upgrade
+9.5% VOW.NO (Vow ASA NOK2.19, +0.19) -- €11.3M purchase order
+9.1% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €91.18, +7.58) -- Italy's financial regulator questions Brunello Cucinelli over short seller claims - FT
+6.9% CMCX.LN (CMC Markets £2.39, +0.16) -- CMC Markets, Westpac Banking extend strategic relationship
+5.9% KENDR.NA (Kendrion €14.40, +0.80) -- long-term cooperation with Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR) for Sibiu Mobility Electronics Facility
+5.1% TWEKA.NA (TKH Group €36.48, +1.76) -- new term loan of €200M; Oddo upgrade
+4.9% NIBE.B.SS (NIBE Industrier SEK36.16, +1.70) -- BofA ugprade
+4.6% FCT.IM (Fincantieri €22.30, +0.98) -- Fincantieri and TUI Cruises firm up order for two new cruise ships
+4.5% GEN.LN (Genuit Group £3.57, +0.16) -- acquires Davidson Holdings Limited for total consideration of £49.0M on a debt-free and cash-free basis .
+4.4% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.76, +0.03) -- H1 EPS cont ops ($7.88) vs year-ago restated $10.75
+4.3% KLR.LN (Keller Group £14.70, +0.60) -- additional share buyback
+4.1% ADM.LN (Admiral Group £33.28, +1.30) -- assumed buy at Jefferies
+4.1% KCO.GR (Kloeckner & Co. €5.86, +0.23) -- to divest seven US distribution sites to Russel Metals for $119M
+4.0% GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring NOK292.20, +11.20) -- assumed buy at Jefferies
+3.3% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £38.04, +1.22) -- new CFO
+2.5% AFRY.SS (AFRY AB SEK159.30, +3.90) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation
+2.3% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £15.20, +0.34) -- appoints Luke Miels as CEO Designate; Miels will assume full responsibilities as CEO from 1-Jan-26
+2.0% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK326.20, +6.30) -- Advent pays breakup fees as planned $1.1B deal to buy contact-lens maker from EQT AB fell through near the finish line -- Bloomberg, citing sources; considering bid for health services provider Aidacare - The Australian
+1.9% WATR.LN (Water Intelligence £2.75, +0.05) -- H1 adjusted EPS 22.4c vs year-ago 20.7c
+1.7% CLCO.NO (Cool Co. NOK94.40, +1.60) -- Independent Special Committee approves EPS Ventures acquisition of remainder of CoolCo for $9.65/sh cash
+1.6% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK290.20, +4.60) -- Biogen, Eisai advise approval in China for lecanemab IV maintenance dosing for the treatment of early alzheimer's disease
+1.5% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK116.85, +1.75) -- extending Friday's gains on report the wind developer is in talks to sell 50% stake in Hornsea 3 project to Apollo for £8.5B
+1.5% SPT.LN (Spirent Communications £1.98, +0.03) -- Keysight, Spirent confirm that all conditions to the acquisition relating to antitrust and foreign investment approvals have been satisfied
+1.1% DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich €72.58, +0.80) -- invites Apollo back into auction of animal nutrition and health unit - Bloomberg
+1.0% IPO.LN (IP Group £0.53, +0.01) -- portfolio company OXCCU completes £20.75M funding round
+0.4% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,036.50, +4.00) -- weighs options Including Paris IPO for French real estate company Emeria -- Bloomberg, citing sources (26-Sep, post European close)
+0.2% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €7.77, +0.02) -- sees 2028-2030 adj EBIT margin of 8% to 10%; plans to cut total of ~4,000 jobs worldwide by 2030 -- CMD
Notable Decliners
-8.2% YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding CHF302.00, -27.50) -- reports mid-term ambition to reach EBIT CHF280-340M in 2029-2030 in capital markets day presentation
-7.9% EQS.FP (Equasens Group €41.00, -3.50) -- H1 net income €17.3M vs year-ago €17.2M
-6.5% GNRO.FP (GeNeuro €0.04, -0.00) -- extension of debt-restructuring moratorium until 27-Jan-26
-5.0% POLX.LN (Polarean Imaging £0.00, -0.00) -- new supply agreement with the University ofVirginia Health
-4.1% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €73.85, -3.15) -- CFO Jasper Eenhorst to step down
-2.6% UCG.IM (UniCredit €63.73, -1.71) -- concludes first tranche of the Share Buy-back 2024 Residual
-2.6% BP.LN (BP £4.34, -0.12) -- Sembcorp conducting due diligence of Lightsource BP's Australian renewables pipeline valued around A$1B (£489M) on EV basis - Australian Financial Review
-2.1% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €53.10, -1.15) -- acquires producing assets in the Anadarko Basin; financial details not provided; divests 50% of 1.4 GW solar portfolio in North America for an enterprise value of $1.25B; announces $7.5B savings program over 2026-2030; plans for +3% per year oil and gas growth between 2024 and 2030
-1.3% AWE.LN (Alphawave IP Group £1.87, -0.02) -- H1 adjusted net income ($56.9M) vs year-ago ($13.5M)
-1.1% PUM.GR (Puma €20.40, -0.22) -- issues Q3 Aide Memoire; no new information provided
-1.0% IVA.FP (Inventiva €5.00, -0.05) -- H1 net income €175.9M vs FactSet (€43.1M) [2 est, (€51.1)-(35.2M)]
-1.0% JEN.BB (Jensen-Group €60.00, -0.60) -- subsidiary MAXI-PRESS signs purchase of operations of Filterfab Pty Ltd in Australia, and shares of Filterfab NZ Limited in New Zealand
-0.5% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK1,832.00, -8.50) -- to acquire Merus for $97.00/sh in an all-cash transaction representing a transaction value of ~$8.0B
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: BioSenic (BIOS.BB), Oxurion (OXUR.BB)
DACHs: Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR), Jadestone Energy (8KW.GR)
France: Lhyfe (LHYFE.FP), AB Science (AB.FP)
Southern Europe: GEK Terna (GEKTERNA.GA), Solaria Energia (SLR.SM), Ellaktor (ELLAKTOR.GA), Expert.ai (EXAI.IM), Technical Olympic (OLYMP.GA)
UK: Close Brothers (CBG.LN), A.G. BARR (BAG.LN), BOKU (BOKU.LN), Card Factory (CARD.LN), Next 15 Group (NFG.LN), Big Technologies (BIG.LN), Avacta Group (AVCT.LN), Animalcare Group (ANCR.LN), Strix Group (KETL.LN), Tissue Regenix Group (TRX.LN), Futura Medical (FUM.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Sep Economic Sentiment Indicator 95.5 vs cons 95.2 and prior revised to 95.3 from 95.2
Consumer Confidence (14.9) vs prelim (14.9)
Services Sentiment Indicator 3.6 vs cons 3.7 and prior revised to 3.8 from 3.6
UK Aug
M4 Money Supply +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior +0.1%
Mortgage Approvals 64.68K vs cons 64.5K and prior revised 65.16K from 65.35K
Spain
Sep Prelim CPI +2.9% y/y vs cons +3.1% and prior +2.7%; (0.4%) m/m vs cons (0.2%) and prior 0.0%
EU Harmonised: +3.0% y/y vs cons +3.0% and prior +2.7%; +0.1% m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior 0.0%
Aug Retail Sales +4.5% y/y vs cons +4.2% and prior +4.7%; +0.4% m/m vs cons (0.2%) and prior (0.4%)
Norway Aug Retail Sales +0.2% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.6%
Denmark Aug Unemployment Rate 2.6% vs cons 2.6% and prior 2.6%
Belgium Sep CPI +2.1% y/y vs cons +2.0% and prior +1.9%; (0.3%) m/m vs cons (0.4%) and prior 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 25): ($2.49) or (3.79%) to $63.23
€-$ +0.0030 or +0.26% to 1.1733
£-$ +0.0038 or +0.29% to 1.3435
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8733
S&P 500 +0.23%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +13.79%
DAX: +19.27%
CAC: +6.78%
MIB: +24.48%
Stoxx 600: +9.44%
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