Sep 29 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, tracking marginal gains across most Asian markets. Another tech-led rally in Hong Kong with mainland China indexes picking up gains following cautious open. Japan lagging with stocks trading ex-dividend. Crude retreating amid reports OPEC+ weighing potentially larger production hike for November. Gold rebounding to fresh record high highs, currently at $3834.80/oz.
Last week, European equity markets were just slightly higher with the STOXX Europe 600 +0.07%. The week delivered several upside surprises in US economic data which sent yields and US dollar higher, while equities struggled. However, the bullish market type remains intact. Eurozone PMI reached a 16-month high despite manufacturing weakness, as Germany's services sector offset France's thirteenth consecutive monthly decline. The UK saw economic momentum decelerate sharply. Central bank actions included Sweden's Riksbank delivering a surprise 25bp cut to 1.75%, likely concluding their easing cycle, while Switzerland maintained rates at zero. Basic Resources led sector performance on rising commodity prices, with precious metals miners benefiting from record gold prices and steelmakers surging on EU tariff news. Conversely, Healthcare faced headwinds from new US drug tariffs, while Autos declined despite tariff relief, weighed down by Volkswagen's guidance cut.
European macro data releases out today include Spain Sep preliminary CPI, Aug retail sales, Eurozone Sep economic/service sentiment, UK Aug mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Norway Aug retail sales, Denmark Aug unemployment rate, Belgium Sep CPI, Ireland Aug retail sales
Focus on the UK 2025 Labour Party Annual Conference, which is being held in Liverpool until Wednesday, October 1 (note there will also be a number of fringe events). Speeches from Chancellor Rachel Reeves today (12pm) and Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday. Press reports note Reeves is set to announce that young people who have been out of a job or education for 18 months will be offered a guaranteed paid work placement.
In central banks today, ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland conf title Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 (through Tue) sees BOE's Ramsden, ECB's Lane panelists at 14:00CET. SIBOS 2025 (through Fri) sees Bundesbank's Nagel speech/panelist at 10:00CET. Baltic Digital Euro Conf sees Estonioa central bank's Müller make opening remarks at 8:30CET, EU's Dombrovskis, ECB's Cipollone speeches from 8:40, then joined by Müller and Latvia central bank's Kazāks for a fireside chat. ECB's Schnabel in exchange of views at 11:00CET on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of Assn of German Banks, the same time as ECB's Machado is panelist at event organised by Portugal's central bank. Croatia central bank's Vujčić speech/panelist at 13:35CET at event hosted by European Bank Coordination (Vienna) Initiative (through Tue), with Lithuania central bank's Šimkus, Slovakia central bank's Kažimír panelist at 17:15CET. Riksbank publishes minutes from last MPC meeting at 9:30CET.
On the political front, Chancellor Merz visits the State Parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia in the afternoon and will discuss current issues with Parliament's President. Later, the Chancellor attends a meeting organised by Rheinische Post. EU internal market and industry ministers meeting also takes place.
In corporate highlights, Genmab in advanced talks to acquire Merus, reports Bloomberg; Kloeckner & Co. to divest seven US distribution sites to Russel Metals for $119M; DSM-Firmenich reportedly invites Apollo back into auction of animal nutrition and health unit
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- ING Group provides update on exit from Russian market
YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding) -- reports mid-term ambition to reach EBIT CHF280-340M in 2029-2030 in capital markets day presentation
DAN.IM (Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche) -- reports FY net income €220.1M vs FactSet €224.6M [6 est, €143.9-255.0M]
Also reporting today
Earnings:
France: GenSight Biologics (SIGHT.FP)
Southern Europe: Piraeus Port Authority (PPA.GA), Tessellis (TSL.IM)
UK: Devolver Digital (DEVO.LN), Ebiquity (EBQ.LN)
CMD/Events: TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) 2025 Strategy & Outlook at 15:00CET, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR), Kesko (KESKOB.FH) strategy and logistics at 13:00CET, Net Insight (NETI.B.SS), TotalEnergies EP Gabon (EC.FP)
M&A
MRUS (Merus) -- Genmab in advanced talks to acquire Merus - Bloomberg
BP.LN (BP) -- Sembcorp conducting due diligence of Lightsource BP's Australian renewables pipeline valued around A$1B (£489M) on EV basis - Australian Financial Review
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- ING Group provides update on exit from Russian market
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- invites Apollo back into auction of animal nutrition and health unit - Bloomberg
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- considering bid for health services provider Aidacare - The Australian
KCO.GR (Kloeckner & Co.) -- to divest seven US distribution sites to Russel Metals for $119M
CLCO.NO (Cool Co.) -- Independent Special Committee approves EPS Ventures acquisition of remainder of CoolCo for $9.65/sh cash
IPR.PL (Impresa SGPS) -- MFE in talks to acquire stake in Impresa SGPS
Bedrock Industries, Flacks Group and Steel Business Europe among bidders for Acciaierie d'Italia's steel plants - Bloomberg
Healthcare
BBIO (BridgeBio Pharma) -- presents data from ATTRibute-CM study showing that acoramidis reduced cumulative cardiovascular outcomes
MYX.AU (Mayne Pharma Group) -- notes Australian government approves NEXTSTELLIS for Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme reimbursement
Other
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- signs deal with Hapag-Lloyd to enable GHG emission reductions
VENDA.NO (Vend Marketplaces) -- update on proposed removal of dual-class share structure; key information related to last day of trading in class A shares (post EU close 26-Sep)
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- Casino Group comments on motion submitted by Assaí for provisional measure regarding Casino's shares of Companhia Brasileira
BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli) -- Italy's financial regulator questions Brunello Cucinelli over short seller claims - FT
RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy) -- CFO Jasper Eenhorst to step down
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $75.0M, (19.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- to buy from neutral at Mizuho Securities
STERV.FH (Stora Enso) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Initiations
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- hold at Jefferies
HOLM.B.SS (Holmen) -- underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial) -- sell at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei (0.89%) to 44951.36
Hang Seng +1.80% to 26598.13
Shanghai Composite +0.76% to 3857.26
S&P futures +20.3 vs prior close of 6696.5
€-$ +0.0024 or +0.21% to 1.1727
$-¥ (0.72) or (0.48%) to 148.78
€-¥ (0.40) or (0.23%) to 174.51
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