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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.25%), Hang Seng +0.87%, Shanghai Composite +0.52% as of 04:10 ET

Sep 30 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Tuesday to cap another month of gains and a stellar quarter. Tuesday, Taiwan led the gainers as it marked-to-market following Monday's closure, while there were advances for Japan's Topix, Greater China benchmarks and Singapore. India is flat; the Nikkei 225, South Korea and Australia saw modest losses. US futures negative and Europe opened lower. US dollar is lower, AUD and yen notably stronger for a second day. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields higher. Crude oil futures seeing more declines, gold at yet another record high, iron ore futures higher on BHP news. Cryptocurrencies flat.

    • Asia equities rose for a sixth consecutive month in September as the AI-related technology surge continued although the advances were slightly uneven as Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan all gained but Australia, India and a handful of Southeast Asia benchmarks lost ground. Mainland China boards were mixed with gains in the tech-orientated Shenzhen and CSI 300, but Shanghai was flat. For the quarter Shenzhen added around 30%, other Greater China boards also gained substantially and there were strong advances in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan too. Of the main benchmarks, only India and the Philippines fell.

    • In regional developments Tuesday, China official PMIs showed manufacturing contracted at narrower pace as production swung to expansion for first time in three months; non-manufacturing activity unexpectedly stalled amid weakness in services and construction sectors. The private RatingDog PMI showed a pickup in factory activity while services stayed expansive. The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% as expected with the policy statement leaning hawkish. Japan industrial production contracted again with tariffs an overhang; retail sales contracted versus expectations for a gain. South Korea industrial production growth slowed by more than expected while retail sales declined in August. Thailand's industrial output shrank in August as exports fell, Philippine export growth slowed to its lowest since last December, Taiwan consumer growth improved.

    • Asahi Group (2502.JP) said it will not be able to resume production following a cyberattack on Monday, and cannot foresee a resumption. Kioxia (285A.JP) said it sees strong memory growth of around 20% each year as AI data center operators keep scaling up. SMIC (981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) stocks rose following reports Huawei plans to double production of Ascend 910C AI chips to 600K units in 2026. Zijin Gold International (2259.HK) made a strong Hong Kong debut with shares jumping as much as 66% Tuesday in world's biggest IPO since May. LG Electronics (066570.KS) is to sell a 15% stake in its India unit as part of its IPO process. China's state-run iron ore buyer CMRG has told major steelmakers and traders to temporarily suspend buying all new BHP (BHP.AU) cargoes over a pricing dispute.

  • Digest:

    • China PMIs mostly better than expected:

      • Official manufacturing PMI was 49.8 in September, above consensus 49.6. Follows 49.4 in the previous month and latest reading marks the smallest contraction in the current six-month stretch, yet also the longest down streak since 2019. Production swung to expansion for the first time in three months (generally driven by downstream strength) as declines in new orders and exports eased. Employment and finished goods inventories also logged narrower declines. Margin compression continued with input prices rising for the third month while output prices remained in decline. Non-manufacturing PMI was 50.0, below consensus 50.2. Follows prior month's 50.3 and matches the last neutral reading in Nov-24. Softening was driven by services, which fell back to 50.1 from 50.5 (momentum in consumer services such as leisure and entertainment waned with summer holiday tailwinds) while construction remained in contraction for the second straight month. Composite PMI edged up to 50.6 from 50.6. Separately, RatingDog manufacturing PMI was a firmer 51.2, above consensus 50.2 and follows 50.5 in August. Complexion was more positive than the official series, featuring growth in new orders, exports and production. Services PMI was 52.9 vs consensus 52.6 and follows 53.0, also underpinned by demand growth.

    • RBA on hold as expected, warns of inflation risks:

      • RBA left cash rate unchanged at 3.60% as expected. Policy statement tilted in more hawkish direction while unanimous nature of decision contrasted with 6-3 split during RBA's last hold decision in July. Board judged it appropriate to remain cautious amid indications inflation may be persistent in some areas while recent monthly CPI data posed upside risk to Q3 inflation. Said private demand recovering little quicker than expected (vs August assessment that demand is recovering gradually). Continued to assess labor market conditions as a little tight. Mentioned uncertainties from stronger-than-expected growth and inflation that makes it easier for businesses to past on cost increases. Also noted uncertainties related to lagged effects of recent monetary policy easing. RBA Governor Bullock said waiting for more inflation on inflation and employment before deciding whether to cut or hold in November. Believes earlier rate cuts working as expected with full impact yet to be seen. Still feels policy a little restrictive, but determination of the extent of restrictiveness depends on incoming data. Statement elicited hawkish market reaction with front-end Australian yields rising in a bear flattening move. Market now pricing in less than 50% chance of November rate cut.

    • September BOJ meeting discussions may indicate further preparation for a rate hike:

      • Following hawkish takeaways from the September BOJ meeting, Summary of Opinions appeared to reinforce indications that board members may be preparing for a rate hike. Economic section was relatively brief, highlighting attention on the upcoming BOJ Tankan survey as a key indicator (consistent with Nakagawa's recent remarks) while identifying US macro developments as the greatest risk to Japan. Yet discussions on inflation were predominantly hawkish. Much of the attention remained on rice prices, apt to remain elevated for longer while cost passthrough continues to permeate (and not just confined to rice). This alone could push up inflation expectations. One noted that assessing underlying is difficult but might have closed to within the margin of error of the inflation target. Another theorized that inflation build-up has trickled into inflation expectations and the inflation target can be considered to have been generally achieved. Tamura and Takata raised some of these points to justify their dissenting votes at the MPM, though it is unclear how many of these comments came from these members. On policy, one member urged for rates to remain accommodative through the expected soft patch in inflation and growth in FY26. But others noted domestic dynamics merit consideration of a hike and suggested there should be some degree of regularity in rate actions. Again, US developments remain the primary sticking point though the US-Japan trade agreement is helping to resolve uncertainties.

    • Trump to impose tariffs on timber, lumber and kitchen cabinets:

      • President Trump signed proclamation imposing 10% tariff on softwood timber, lumber and derivative products, 25% tariff on upholstered wooden products, and a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets (Bloomberg). Tariffs will apply from 14-Oct, and from 1-Jan-2026 will increase to 30% for upholstered wood and to 50% for kitchen cabinets. Statement confirmed that countries with trade deals will have tariffs capped at rates negotiated as part of their agreements (15% for Japan and EU, and 10% for UK). Follows blizzard of trade announcements over recent days with Trump having foreshadowed 100% tariffs on foreign-made movies, 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, 25% tariffs on heavy trucks and duties on furniture products (Bloomberg, Reuters). Trump relying on S232 authority for imposition of tariffs on national security grounds. Commerce Department currently pursuing several other S232 investigations (Reuters), providing backstop authority for Trump to impose tariffs should SCOTUS strike down reciprocal duties facing legal challenge. Latest Trump tariff updates have renewed trade tensions, though potential carveouts for countries with agreements seen dampening some of the risk.

    • Japan headline industrial production, retail sales miss:

      • Industrial production fell 1.2% m/m in August, softer than consensus 0.9%, following an equivalent decline in the previous month. Main drags were PCs, external storage devices, aluminum products and chemical compounds. Aggregate shipments rose for the first time in three months, leaving inventories lower. Yet, core capital goods shipments logged back-to-back declines. Going forward, METI survey projections point to sharp growth of 4.1% in September and 1.2% in October. At face value, this would be enough to lift Q3 into positive territory and set up a solid start to Q4. However, adjusted September forecast of 2.3% would leave Q3 little changed. METI official said US tariff policies remain an overhang (Nikkei). Retail sales fell 1.1% m/m in August, contrasting with expectations of a 1.1% increase, extending a 1.6% drop in the prior month. Sharp 7.8% drop in autos was the standout, followed by moderate successive declines in apparel and food & beverage. While recent GDP growth has been resilient, JCER consensus looks for a notable contraction of 1.1% q/q annualized in Q3, which would mark the first negative figure since 1Q24 on the back of export weakness. Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction throughout Q3, though growth in services has lifted the composite PMI into mild expansion.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +69.2% 2259.HK (Zijin Gold International): opens +55.7% at HK$111.50/share on HKEx vs offer price HK$71.59/share

      • +11.1% 1347.HK (Hua Hong Semiconductor): report of Huawei to approximately double 910C Ascend semiconductor production to 600K units next year; DeepSeek releases v3.2, which cuts price of API for developers by 50% or more

      • +6.8% M04.SP (Mandarin Oriental International): confirms media speculation regarding possible sale of part of its interest in One Causeway Bay

      • +2.4% 2327.TT (Yageo): Yageo's tender offer for Anpec Electronics has reached minimum tender threshold of of 3.7M shares

      • +0.4% 2330.TT (TSMC): progress of TSMC Arizona is subject to company's announcement after rumour of mass production to begin one year earlier than originally planned

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.2% 035420.KS (NAVER): on report the acquisition of Dunamu is at 2.4:1 share exchange ratio

      • -1.4% 066570.KS (LG Electronics): to sell 15% stake in Indian unit as part of IPO process

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China September

        • Official manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs consensus 49.6 and 49.4 in prior month

          • Non-manufacturing PMI 50 .0 vs consensus 50.2 and 50.3 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 50.6 vs 50.5 in prior month

        • RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs consensus 50.2 and 50.5 in prior month

          • Services PMI 52.9 vs consensus 52.6 and 53.0 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.9 in prior month

      • Japan August

        • Industrial production (1.2%) m/m vs consensus (0.9%) and (1.2%) in prior month

          • METI survey projections +4.1% in September, +1.2% in October

        • Retail sales (1.1%) y/y vs consensus +1.1% and revised +0.4% in prior month

          • Retail sales (1.1%) m/m vs consensus +1.2% and (1.6%) in prior month

      • Australia August

        • Private sector credit +0.6% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and +0.7% in July

        • Building approvals (6.0%) m/m vs consensus +3.0% and revised (10.0%) in July

      • New Zealand September

        • ANZ Business Confidence +49.6 vs +49.7 in August

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (111.12) or (0.25%) to 44932.63

      • Hang Seng: 232.68 or +0.87% to 26855.56

      • Shanghai Composite: 20.25 or +0.52% to 3882.78

      • Shenzhen Composite: 11.06 or +0.44% to 2519.42

      • ASX200: (14.00) or (0.16%) to 8848.80

      • KOSPI: (6.61) or (0.19%) to 3424.60

      • SENSEX: 51.38 or +0.06% to 80416.32

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.71) or (0.48%) to 147.8950

      • $-KRW: +1.36 or +0.10% to 1401.4100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.44% to 0.6606

      • $-INR: +0.07 or +0.07% to 88.7686

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1189

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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