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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.85%), ASX (0.04%), Kospi +0.91% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 01 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities mostly higher Wednesday away from Japan, which saw its Topix and Nikkei 225 both fall. Modest gains elsewhere including Taiwan, South Korea and India as its central bank held its base rate steady. Southeast Asia positive, New Zealand at near four-year high. Australia weighed by mining stocks to finish flat, Greater China closed for a holiday. US futures lower, Europe opened mixed. US dollar slightly weaker, notable strength in the yen. US Treasuries higher across tenors, JGBs little changed. Crude higher, gold up again on US government shutdown, base metals lower. Cryptocurrencies broadly higher.

    • Asia equities away from Japan and Australia rose steadily over the day shrugging off news the US government would shut down after lawmakers in Washington failed to come to an agreement over funding. The impasse had been building for some time with traders downplaying the long-term economic risk and noting previous shutdowns have been short, although there is some talk of economic data being delayed in the very near term. Australia stocks weighed by miners after reports late Tuesday the China government ordered importers to stop buying cargoes of BHP iron ore over a pricing dispute.

    • Trading on the thin side as Greater China remained closed for a holiday. Overnight, USTR Greer said 55% tariff rate a good 'status quo' suggesting no breakthrough is likely in the short term while Republican lawmakers said they had written off chances of China buying US soybean anytime soon. In economic developments, the RBI held rates steady as expected and kept its neutral stance; it also raised its FY GDP growth forecast and lowered its inflation outlook. Asia September PMIs mixed with South Korea expanding, Taiwan contracting again but ASEAN expanding further; India's final reading revised slightly lower. South Korea export growth for September surprised on the upside but spike partly skewed by higher number of working days. BOJ Tankan survey for October showed steady sentiment. Indonesia's trade surplus improved to its widest in almost three years as imports slumped but domestic inflation rose to a 16-month high.

    • MUFG (8306.JP) is in advanced talks to buy a 20% stake in Shriram Finance (511218.IN) with both sides signing a exclusivity agreement. Han & Company is to acquire SK D&D (210980.KS) by acquiring shares from SK Discovery and via a tender offer. LG Electronics India (066570.KS) is seeking a valuation of INR 774B ($8.71B) in its delayed listing as it sells a 15% stake. Australia PM says China's ban on BHP Group (BHP.AU) iron ore imports 'disappointing' and wants to see the issue resolved quickly.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ Tankan headline indicators in line, business confidence remains resilient:

      • Headline BOJ Tankan business conditions index for large manufacturers was 14 in September, matching expectations, following 13 in June. Most sectors indicated improvement, led mainly by upstream sectors, while all downstream sectors were either stable or better. Closely watched autos improved 2 pts (albeit outlook points to a reversal in December). Large non-manufacturer DI was steady at 34, also in line. Highlight was a major 19-pt tumble in accommodation & dining (inbound tourism slowdown), offset by broader improvements elsewhere. Small firm business conditions were also largely stable. FY25 large firm capex projections revised up to +12.5% from 11.5% vs consensus 11.3%, providing the main upside surprise. Pace remains below recent years though well above the longer-term average. Corresponding sales and current profit projections were little changed. Output gap proxies showed all-industry production capacity DI unchanged while employment DI edged deeper into shortages. Inflation metrics broadly declined in output and input prices for large and small firms. Broader inflation expectations were little changed, remaining above the BOJ's 2% target, with only the 5-year horizon ticking higher. Recall BOJ board member Nakagawa pointed to the Tankan report as a key checkpoint for assessing tariff effects. Early press takeaways were somewhat mixed, though market-implied odds of an October rate hike little changed so far.

    • RBI keeps repo rate unchanged, maintains stance and ups GDP forecasts:

      • RBI's monetary policy committee kept its base repo rate unchanged at 5.5%, maintained policy stance as Neutral, both as widely expected Wednesday. MPC vote was unanimous. Standing Deposit Facility kept at 5.25%, Marginal Standing Facility also unchanged at 5.75%. Governor Malhotra said GST rationalization program would have 'sobering' impact on inflation but would stimulate consumption, growth with services sector set to receive boost. Bank raised FY GDP forecasts after strong Q1 growth of 7.8%: FY26 6.8% from 6.5%, Q2 FY26 raised to 7.0% from 6.7% but subsequent quarterly growth estimate lowered. FY26 inflation forecast lowered to 2.6% from 3.1% largely as food prices have fallen (BusinessStandard). In keeping stance Neutral, Malhotra said prudent to wait for policy actions to play out, greater clarity to emerge before charting next course of action. Added domestic economic activity was sustaining momentum.

    • USTR Greer says 55% China tariffs "good status quo", flags trade deals with SE Asia:

      • Hawkish trade comments from USTR Greer, who said 55% China tariffs is "good status quo" that Trump views as the deal with Beijing (Reuters). Favored continued negotiations to try and balance trading relationship, which may involve purchases of US agricultural products. However, following their meeting with US ambassador to China David Perdue, GOP lawmakers voiced skepticism about Beijing increasing purchases of agricultural goods (Bloomberg). While there have been reports about a potential trade deal involving US soybeans (China stopped US soybeans purchases in May), Beijing has been ramping up orders from South American countries like Argentina, angering US officials (Reuters) Greer sounded more positive on prospects of deals with SE Asian countries when Trump visits region at end of October (Bloomberg). However, US still some distance away from deals with key Asian trading partners. Taipei rejected US demand for 50:50 split in chip production between Taiwan and US, adding that talks hinge on reaching consensus reciprocal tariffs, S232 probes and supply chain cooperation (Bloomberg). US and South Korea agreed on FX accord with Seoul committing to avoiding currency manipulation (Reuters). However, talks appear stuck on $350B investment pledge with Seoul pushing for FX swap deal first.

    • US government begins to shut down after funding deadline expires:

      • US government began shutting down after funding deadline expired at midnight 1-Oct (Bloomberg, Politico, Washington Post). Last minute attempts to avert shutdown failed after Senate rejected competing stopgap funding measures on Tuesday (Politico). Big area of contention remains Affordable Care Act subsidies expiring 1-Jan. Republicans (and even reportedly President Trump) have suggested these could be discussed but not as part of a stopgap. Overall, market not evincing much concern about a potential shutdown, which in the past have been relatively short-lived. Bigger issue is potential delay in release of key economic data, particularly Friday's scheduled September nonfarm payrolls report (Reuters). Also uncertainty surrounding fate of government employees after CBO estimated some 750K workers could be furloughed each day of a shutdown, resulting in total daily compensation of roughly $400M. President Trump on Tuesday said a lot of good could come from a shutdown, threatening mass layoffs of federal employees and defunding of Democrat-aligned programs (NY Times).

    • BOJ to trim superlong JGB purchases in Q4:

      • BOJ JGB purchase operation schedule for Q4 attracted attention for a downsizing in the 10y~25y tranche by JPY60B to JPY345B per month (Nikkei). Marks the second reduction after a JPY45B cut in Q2. BOJ's holdings relatively high in this segment and the magnitude was seen within the range of expectations. Bloomberg cited thoughts the unrevised 25y+ tranche at JPY150B was a positive from the standpoint of market stability. Recall that BOJ's interim review for its purchase reduction plan in June reaffirmed a quarterly pace of JPY400B through 1Q26 and slowing to JPY200B from the following quarter. Some degree of flexibility was built in though there was no goal to run ahead of this schedule. Latest development contrasts with MOF's efforts to adjust JGB issuance according to sector supply-demand conditions. In the latest step, MOF at a primary dealer meeting last week proposed reducing the issuance of off-the-run superlong JGBs in liquidity enhancement auctions, culling issuance of 15.5y~39y bonds by JPY100B to JPY250B per auction. To compensate, 1y~5y tranche would be increased by JPY100B. Many participants said to have supported the idea. Buybacks viewed as the most aggressive option though ministry said it wasn't under consideration.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +13.2% 210980.KS (SK D&D Co.): Hahn & Company to acquire SK D&D by acquiring shares from SK Discovery and through tender offer at KRW12,750/sh

      • +8.5% 9504.JP (The Chugoku Electric Power): formulates vision 2040; guides FY Mar 2031 ROE 8% or more

      • +2.6% 9684.JP (Square Enix Holdings): Ivalice Chronicles" reports strong sales on Nintendo Store and Steam

      • +1.5% 2330.TT (TSMC): Taiwanese semiconductor/AI-related sector move on rumors of OpenAI's Sam Altman visiting Taiwan

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -14.3% 7105.JP (Mitsubishi Logisnext): Japan Industrial Partners launches tender offer at ¥1,537

      • -5.2% 035420.KS (NAVER): speculation that Naver Financial may seek US listing after merger with Dunamu

      • -2.1% 6098.JP (Recruit): US JOLTS hiring declined in August

      • +0% 165A.JP (SBI RHEOS HIFUMI): to merge with SBI Global Asset Management

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • September BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions index 14 vs consensus 14 and 13 in June

          • December large manufacturers business conditions outlook forecast 12 vs consensus 13

        • September large non-manufacturers business conditions index 34 vs consensus 34 and 34 in June

          • December large non-manufacturers business conditions outlook forecast 28 vs consensus 28

        • FY25 large enterprise capex projection +12.5% vs consensus 11.3% and +11.5% in June

        • September final manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs flash 48.4 and 49.7 in prior month

      • South Korea September

        • Trade balance $9.6B vs FactSet consensus $7.3B and $6.5B in prior month

          • Exports +12.7% y/y vs FactSet consensus +5.4% and +1.3% in prior month

          • Imports +8.2% y/y vs FactSet consensus +4.0% and (4.0%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (381.78) or (0.85%) to 44550.85

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: (3.10) or (0.04%) to 8845.70

      • KOSPI: 31.23 or +0.91% to 3455.83

      • SENSEX: 540.13 or +0.67% to 80807.75

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.84) or (0.57%) to 147.0910

      • $-KRW: (1.37) or (0.10%) to 1402.8300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.02% to 0.6615

      • $-INR: (0.14) or (0.16%) to 88.6957

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1185

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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